Released November 28, 2022 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--"Currently, the electric grid does not have sufficient delivery headroom for highway charging at the scale identified by this study and required by policy targets." That sentence, actually an understatement, is contained in the introduction to a recently-released white paper evaluating the projected requirements for charging electric vehicle (EV) versions of long-haul medium and heavy duty vehicles (MHDVs) as their counts begin to grow in the next few years.
Electric Highways: Accelerating and Optimizing Fast-Charging Deployment for Carbon-Free Transportation was issued by a consortium including National Grid, CALSTART, Rocky Mountain Institute, Stable Auto, and Geotab. National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG) (London, England) operates high voltage electricity transmission networks in the U. S. northeast and in the U.K.; CALSTART (Pasadena, California) is a nonprofit company whose goal is to promote and enable growth of green transportation; Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) (Basalt, Colorado) is also a green transportation group; Stable Auto (San, Francisco) is an EV charging data analysis platform; and Geotab Incorporated (Oakville, California) is a fleet-tracking and management company.
The study on which the paper is based was conducted in New York and Massachusetts.
As those MHDV counts expand, power grid needs will indeed be revolutionized. Today, charging a car or light-duty truck (LDV) for around-town driving is simple: home or depot charging is usually sufficient. The Electric Highways paper notes that today, LDV registration outnumbers MHDs by a 1,425-1 ratio. Climate goals in many states are requiring truck makers to switch to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 or 2035. New York, for example, will require 100% EV sales by 2035. In light of that, Tesla Incorporated (NASDAQ:TLSA) (Austin, Texas) is slated to release its first MHDV BEV, the Tesla Semi, very soon. The study assumes that most EVs will be battery-electric vehicles instead of fuel-cell driven.
How to accommodate remote charging needs as electric MHDVs increase is the crux of the study.
How Much Power for a Quick Charge?
Batteries in long-haul trucks will require many times the power needed by personal vehicles; they will need it on the road and they will need it fast, to maintain efficiencies. Fast charging of MDHVs requires 350-kW chargers.
Charting expected growth of all types of electric vehicles by 2035, the paper's authors see a typical mixed-use site--one that accommodates all levels of duty--requiring 5.9 MW of power at peak hours, typically around midafternoon.
A large-capacity truck/bus stop may require almost double, at 10 MW, while a passenger plaza, mostly focused on smaller vehicles, could demand about 5 MW.
Here's the perspective: Five MW is "about the amount of power used by an outdoor professional sports stadium." Ten MW is "roughly equivalent to the electric load of a small town."
These numbers are just for 2035--they are expected to grow further by 2045, the extent of the study.
Expanding the Power Grid to Meet Needs
At those demand rates, simply tying in to the available powerlines at the off ramp will not do. The paper's writers see two options: locating these charging stations near where high-voltage transmission lines cross over highways; or building out infrastructure to connect charging stations with those transmission lines.
For the latter, the paper estimates it could take eight years and cost millions of dollars for each iteration--a very expensive option for station operators. This kind of schedule would also lag far behind the expected rate of demand growth based on state-mandated EV adoption rates.
Citing the fact that infrastructure needs will grow, the study's authors recommend that power entities build for the endgame--not building for 2035 first, then going back in and re-retrofitting as demand surpasses that level. The main reason for this recommendation is that it would greatly increase the already astronomical costs, and would create another round of underserving the community.
Long recharge lines could destroy productivity and create a new type of supply-chain issue.
Current demand growth, the study noted, is driven by LDVs, but even that could require 5-MW charging stations at or before 2030. With the long lead times involved, it would seem that the infrastructure is already behind schedule, even with state funding available in many areas.
Its final conclusion, that "The electric highway future is happening now," would seem indeed to be true.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
Electric Highways: Accelerating and Optimizing Fast-Charging Deployment for Carbon-Free Transportation was issued by a consortium including National Grid, CALSTART, Rocky Mountain Institute, Stable Auto, and Geotab. National Grid plc (NYSE:NGG) (London, England) operates high voltage electricity transmission networks in the U. S. northeast and in the U.K.; CALSTART (Pasadena, California) is a nonprofit company whose goal is to promote and enable growth of green transportation; Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) (Basalt, Colorado) is also a green transportation group; Stable Auto (San, Francisco) is an EV charging data analysis platform; and Geotab Incorporated (Oakville, California) is a fleet-tracking and management company.
The study on which the paper is based was conducted in New York and Massachusetts.
As those MHDV counts expand, power grid needs will indeed be revolutionized. Today, charging a car or light-duty truck (LDV) for around-town driving is simple: home or depot charging is usually sufficient. The Electric Highways paper notes that today, LDV registration outnumbers MHDs by a 1,425-1 ratio. Climate goals in many states are requiring truck makers to switch to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 or 2035. New York, for example, will require 100% EV sales by 2035. In light of that, Tesla Incorporated (NASDAQ:TLSA) (Austin, Texas) is slated to release its first MHDV BEV, the Tesla Semi, very soon. The study assumes that most EVs will be battery-electric vehicles instead of fuel-cell driven.
How to accommodate remote charging needs as electric MHDVs increase is the crux of the study.
How Much Power for a Quick Charge?
Batteries in long-haul trucks will require many times the power needed by personal vehicles; they will need it on the road and they will need it fast, to maintain efficiencies. Fast charging of MDHVs requires 350-kW chargers.
Charting expected growth of all types of electric vehicles by 2035, the paper's authors see a typical mixed-use site--one that accommodates all levels of duty--requiring 5.9 MW of power at peak hours, typically around midafternoon.
A large-capacity truck/bus stop may require almost double, at 10 MW, while a passenger plaza, mostly focused on smaller vehicles, could demand about 5 MW.
Here's the perspective: Five MW is "about the amount of power used by an outdoor professional sports stadium." Ten MW is "roughly equivalent to the electric load of a small town."
These numbers are just for 2035--they are expected to grow further by 2045, the extent of the study.
Expanding the Power Grid to Meet Needs
At those demand rates, simply tying in to the available powerlines at the off ramp will not do. The paper's writers see two options: locating these charging stations near where high-voltage transmission lines cross over highways; or building out infrastructure to connect charging stations with those transmission lines.
For the latter, the paper estimates it could take eight years and cost millions of dollars for each iteration--a very expensive option for station operators. This kind of schedule would also lag far behind the expected rate of demand growth based on state-mandated EV adoption rates.
Citing the fact that infrastructure needs will grow, the study's authors recommend that power entities build for the endgame--not building for 2035 first, then going back in and re-retrofitting as demand surpasses that level. The main reason for this recommendation is that it would greatly increase the already astronomical costs, and would create another round of underserving the community.
Long recharge lines could destroy productivity and create a new type of supply-chain issue.
Current demand growth, the study noted, is driven by LDVs, but even that could require 5-MW charging stations at or before 2030. With the long lead times involved, it would seem that the infrastructure is already behind schedule, even with state funding available in many areas.
Its final conclusion, that "The electric highway future is happening now," would seem indeed to be true.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
