Alaskan Leaders Declare Energy Comeback

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The latest auction for drilling rights in far north Alaska set a record and marked the first new lease since 2019. State forecasts suggest oil production could top 600,000 BBL/d by the 2030s.

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High Bids for Alaska's NPR

Accounting for barely 3% of total U.S. crude oil production, representatives from Alaska said the state was primed for a comeback after one of its most successful offshore lease sales.

Republican representatives said Alaska marked its comeback with one of the best oil and gas lease sales ever in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A). High bids totaled $163 million for rights to drill across 1.3 million acres in the reserve.

"This lease sale is just the beginning of a stronger Alaska and a more secure American energy future," Representative Nick Begich (R-Alaska) said in a statement Wednesday.

The lease in the NPR-A was the first since 2019. Republican leaders criticized former President Joe Biden for throwing up roadblocks to Alaskan energy development. A February lease sale for the rights to drill off Alaska's Cook Inlet received no bids at all, prompting environmental groups to decry President Donald Trump's "fossil fuel fantasy."

It's unclear what led to the renewed interest, though Republican legislators had said they were working closely with the federal government to encourage more development. The 2019 lease sale generated $113 million in high bids. By contrast, the second offshore oil lease sale under Trump's signature One Big, Beautiful Bill Act received 38 bids totaling nearly $47 million. That was 84% less than bids received in the first lease sale under the act from December.

The U.S. waters off the Gulf Coast and Alaska are the only sources of meaningful growth in crude oil production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Energy Department, forecasts offshore production increases 3.7% from year-ago levels to average 1.97 million barrels per day (BBL/d). Alaskan production increases 12%, but only to 470,000 BBL/d, should EIA estimates prove accurate.

Over the four-week period to March 13, the EIA put total Alaskan crude oil production at 421,000 BBL/d, down from 439,000 BBL/d during the similar period in 2025.

Big Plans in the Works Already

The Alaskan division of Australian energy company Santos is behind some of the largest oil and gas production facilities in the state. The company could be close to completing work at its Pikka Grassroot Central Processing Facility on the North Slope, with a peak design capacity of 80,000 BBL/d.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Production Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.

Pikka is expected to help drive crude oil production in Alaska. The state's Department of Revenue said that Alaska could be producing close to 621,000 BBL/d by the 2030s. More gains are expected as early as 2029, when the Willow oil field and a handful of other smaller developments contribute to recent production estimates.

LNG is the Also-Ran

Elsewhere, President Donald Trump last year singled out Alaska and its prospects to become a liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in his strategy of energy dominance. A division of Glenfarne is working on a facility that already has offtake commitments from Japan and steel-supply agreements from South Korea.

The United States doesn't make much of the tubular products necessary for pipelines, leaving the hundreds of miles in new midstream infrastructure slated for Phase 1 development possibly snarled by global trade disputes. Elsewhere, a warming climate means the construction window in Alaska's harsh tundra climate is shortening by the year.

By the Numbers

• $163 million in high bids sets a record
• 621,000 BBL/d possible by the 2030s

Key Takeaways

• Alaska declares comeback to oil and gas lease
• The state accounts for only 3% of total U.S. oil production

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).