Can Canada Really Achieve its Oil Export Ambitions?

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Internal agreements in Canada outline steps toward a new crude oil export pipeline from British Columbia. But can those efforts match Trump's push for fossil fuels in the U.S.?

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North America is Highly Competitive

While the Canadian government is making strides in its efforts to diversify its international trade options, the energy sector remains a competitive business where location matters, one energy executive said.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking 22 projects, with a combined investment value of US$2.7 billion, related to planned pipeline developments across Canada. The largest active project is the Prairie Connector from Alberta. Led by South Bow, the line could carry as much as 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) once its completed by 2028.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on these pipeline projects in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Pipeline Project Database, where readers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in a detailed list of project reports. Specifically, readers can learn more about Prairie Connector from a detailed project report.

Since taking office last year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has steered a trade and growth initiative that focuses on expanding the nation's economic reach beyond North America. To support that, he's included liquefied natural gas, critical minerals and additional oil exports in a list of nation-building priorities.

Speaking from Calgary, Nick McKenna, the head of the Canadian division of ConocoPhillips, said it's hard to compete against major economies such as the U.S., which remains Canada's largest trading partner. Efforts led by pro-fuels President Donald Trump are hard to replicate.

"The cost to do business in a jurisdiction matters," he was quoted by the Reuters news service as saying Thursday. "It is a very, very competitive landscape."

Carney created a Major Projects Office to help new infrastructure reach the finish line. Last week, his office agreed on new climate and energy strategies with the provincial government of Alberta that would see a new crude oil pipeline to British Columbia.

Alberta's government said last week that the review of a plan for the project with the Major Projects Office is planned for October.

"An indigenous co-owned oil pipeline to Asian markets would ensure the province and country are no longer dependent on just one customer to buy their most valuable resource," the provincial government said. "The proposed West Coast oil pipeline would transport more than 1 million barrels of oil per day through a strategic port to Asian markets."

South Bow, Enbridge and others were included on a steering committee for earlier developments, but the proposal outlined last week by federal and provincial leaders has yet to secure backing from the private sector.

By the Numbers

• 1 million bpd proposed for new Canadian oil pipeline
• 550,000 bpd backed by presidential action in the United States

U.S. Already Has Administrative Backing

As of now, the expanded Trans Mountain crude oil pipeline is the only option available for shipping outside of North America. Even with Carney's push for trade diversification, Canada remains the top crude oil exporter to the U.S. economy with 60% of the deliveries.

The Prairie Connector, led by South Bow, is the Canadian section of a broader network. It would connect to the planned Bridger pipeline in the U.S.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, the Bridger project entails the construction of a 435-mile crude oil pipeline that would transport about 550,000 bpd of Canadian and Bakken crude from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming. Readers can learn more from a detailed project report.

The project includes a potential extension to Steele City, Nebraska, for further connection to Gulf Coast markets. Either network could use leftovers from the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which is still permitted on the Canadian side of the border.

Trump signed an executive order granting a cross-border permit for the Bridger Pipeline earlier this year.

Key Takeaways

• Questions emerge over Canadian trade efforts
• "Major Projects Office" created to help with that

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).