China Outpaces World in Aluminum, Copper Smelting Investments

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Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

While the U.S. is pushing for more large-scale mining projects, China leads in the smelting of aluminum and copper, with the U.S.-Iranian conflict and the massive buildout of data centers heavily affecting demand for the two materials, respectively.

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China Leads in Total Investment

The global smelting industry has been shaken by a swath of rapidly shifting geopolitical developments, from the ongoing war in the Middle East to the skyrocketing demand for data centers. But one thing remains consistent: China accounts for the lion's share of development. Industrial Info Resources is tracking more than 4,600 active and proposed projects at smelters worldwide, totaling about US$595 billion of investment; the U.S. accounts for about 600 projects, totaling more than US$90 billion.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, China accounts for about 30% of investment at smelters worldwide, with the U.S. trailing at about 15.2% and Indonesia at 13.5%. China also accounts for more than half of the US$205.3 billion worth of projects deemed by Industrial Info Resources as having a high likelihood (81% or more) of beginning construction as scheduled, with the U.S. making up only 7.5%.

China's smelting industry has a significant influence on the aluminum trade. It produced 41.5 million tonnes of primary aluminum in 2023, representing 60% of global production; this marks a stunning 2,000% increase from the 13% global share of 2000, according to data from the Aluminum Association. During that time, the U.S. has plummeted from the No. 1 spot in 2000 to 12th place in 2023, when it produced just 750,000 tonnes.

Indeed, China has more than US$11.8 billion worth of aluminum-smelting projects that have a high likelihood of beginning construction as scheduled within the next 12 months. Guangxi, one of its top aluminum-producing regions, is home to one of the largest: Guangxi Hongsheng Aluminum Industry Company Limited's ingot smelter in Baise. Industrial Info Resources offers more information on this project in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Plant and Project databases, where readers can find details--including production capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--in a plant profile and project report.

While countries in the Persian Gulf region account for only about 9% of global aluminum production, according to data from the United Nations, recent chaos in the Middle East has pushed China's aluminum smelters to consistently produce at maximum capacity. But China also is preparing for a nationwide inspection of the industry's energy consumption, according to Mysteel Global, which could result in mandatory production cutbacks. These concerns recently pushed aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to their highest in more than four years.

The U.S. has only a handful of projects at its aluminum smelters with a high likelihood of beginning construction as planned in the coming 12 months, consisting mostly of rebuilds and repairs at existing facilities.

By the Numbers

• More than 4,600: Total number of active and proposed projects at smelters worldwide
• More than US$11.8 billion: Total value of aluminum-smelting projects in China with a high likelihood of starting in the next 12 months
• More than US$5.4 billion: Total value of copper-smelting projects in China with a high likelihood of starting in the next 12 months

U.S. Sees Opportunity in Copper

While Chile leads the world in copper mining, China is the top copper smelter, producing about 45% of the world's refined copper, according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). Chile produces about 5.3 million tonnes annually, but refines only about 1.4 million tonnes; China, which imports heavy amounts of raw copper from Latin America and other regions, refines about 10 million tonnes annually.

One of the most influential factors in the global demand for copper is the development of data centers, which consume heavy amounts of the metal. This is pushing the U.S.--currently the fifth-largest copper producer at about 1 million metric tonnes annually, or about 5% of global output--to pursue more copper-mining projects. Last month, the U.S. Senate voted to overturn a 2023 moratorium on mining in Minnesota's Superior National Forest to allow the development of Antofagasta's proposed Twin Metals Minnesota Mine.

Twin Metals Minnesota, which also would produce nickel, is one of several mining projects in its early development stages in the Land of 1,000 Lakes. Readers can learn more from a detailed project report and Industrial Info Resources' April 20, 2026, article - U.S. Senate Clears Way for Minnesota Copper-Nickel Mine.

But while high demand has elevated copper prices, massive overbuilding in China has pushed smelter revenues to record lows. China has US$5.5 billion worth of copper-smelting projects with a high likelihood of beginning construction in the next 12 months--about half the investment for aluminum smelters--and most of that investment is going toward expansions, additions and upgrades to existing facilities. For more information, see Industrial Info Resources' March 11, 2026, article - China Smelter Overbuilds, Record Commodity Pricing Squeeze Copper Markets.

One of the handful of grassroot copper-smelting projects set to kick off in the near future is Jiangxi Xintai Copper Industry Company Limited's smelter in Yichun, Jiangxi, which is the leading region for China's copper production. Readers can learn more from a plant profile and project report.

As with aluminum, the few U.S. copper-smelter projects with a high likelihood of kicking off in the next 12 months cover rebuilds and repairs. But the U.S. is likely to see construction begin on several smelting projects for less commonly cited materials: Boston Metal is expected to start work this summer on an ultrapure chromium plant in Weirton, West Virginia, while IperionX Limited is expected to kick off an expansion of its titanium powders plant in South Boston, Virginia.

The Weirton and South Boston projects are designed to use low-carbon technology, with the latter working from fully recycled titanium scrap. Readers can consult detailed reports on the Weirton and South Boston.

The Industrial Info Resources GMI Project and Plant databases offer a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article, and a full list of related plant profiles.

Industrial Info Resources also offers a full list of reports for active and proposed projects at smelters worldwide, and a full list of reports for projects specifically in the U.S.

Key Takeaways

• Recent chaos in the Middle East has pushed China's aluminum smelters to consistently produce at maximum capacity.
• Massive overbuilding in China has pushed global smelter revenues to record lows.
• The few U.S. copper or aluminum smelter projects with a high likelihood of kicking off in the next 12 months are mostly rebuilds and repairs.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).