Peru Appears Poised for Presidential Runoff

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Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Judging by current popularity ratings, Peru is on track for a runoff presidential election. Resolving leadership instability is critical to the mining sector's business environment.

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Peru Elections

Peru is set to hold its presidential elections on April 12, but current polls suggest that it will take two rounds to select the nation's new president. These are historic elections, with 35 candidates on the ballot and years of political uncertainty following eight presidents over the past decade.

On Sunday, Peruvians will elect a president. A candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a June runoff.

According to an Ipsos poll from April 3 and 4, Keiko Fujimori is leading the polls with 15% of the support, followed by Carlos Alvarez, whose support has dropped by 1% to 8%. Meanwhile, in third place is Rafael Lopez Aliaga, a right-wing politician whose backing declined from 11% in early March to 7% in April. The candidate with the biggest surge in the last month is Ricardo Belmont, who only polled at 2% in March and climbed to 6% in April.

This election is watched as a turning point to the growing political crisis impacting Peru. Since 2016, eight presidents have led the country amid parliamentary impeachments and corruption investigations. Most of Peru's presidents since 1990 have been arrested or are under corruption investigations, demonstrating the volatility of the nation's political sphere.

Who Are the Leading Candidates?

Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), is a right-wing candidate who supports free trade and strong security policies, carrying on her father's legacy under the banner of "Fujimorism." Keiko lost the second round in the presidential elections of 2011, 2016, and 2021. On mining, Keiko is proposing modernizing the mining law, speeding up permitting, developing infrastructure around mining assets, and offering tax incentives for reinvestment.

Meanwhile, Carlos Alvarez, another conservative candidate, has vowed to fight corruption, strengthen security and policing, and reactivate the economy through investments. The mining sector is among its growth industries; however, it focuses on sustainability and the fight against illegal mining.

In third place comes Lima's former mayor, Lopez Aliaga, whose popularity has declined in recent weeks. A conservative right-wing candidate, Lopez Aliaga has supported stronger policing, state-size reduction, and a business-friendly policy mix. In terms of mining, the right-wing politician suggests combating illegal mining activities and reverting idle mining areas to the state when not actively used.

Finally, Ricardo Belmont has gained traction since March and could emerge as the surprise ahead of Sunday's election. The former Lima mayor backs domestic and foreign investment in Peru and argues Peru should move from a raw materials exporter to a supply chain developer. He also proposes reviewing and renegotiating contracts related to Peru's natural resources, but he did not offer further details in his government plan.

Mining at the Heart of Peru

Mining is one of Peru's main economic export activity, with copper and gold leading the way. Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer, with output of 2.77 million tonnes and exports totalling US$28.1 billion in 2025.

Gold output reached 108.9 million grams, generating export returns of US$23.2 billion in the same period.

Industrial Info is tracking more than 690 mining-related projects in Peru, totalling investments of US$53.41 billion.

Key Takeaways

• Current polls suggest that Peru's presidential elections are heading to a runoff.
• Keiko Fujimori and Carlos Alvarez are leading with 15% and 8%, respectively, according to Ipsos.
• Industrial Info is tracking more than 690 mining projects in Peru worth US$53.41 billion.

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  About IIR News Intelligence
  IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).
  
  About Industrial Info Resources
  Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).