Study Finds Protracted War Pain for Global Commodities

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Barely a handful of tankers laden with energy products are moving out of the Persian Gulf. That leaves about 20% of global oil supplies in the crosshairs of the war in the Middle East.

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Traffic Jams Hurt

Only around two tankers per day are moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, and it could be July in the most optimistic scenario before liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets return to normal, assessment from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) found.

Iran in response to joint U.S.-Israeli military action has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking traffic through a strategic waterway that carries about 20% of global energy supplies. That's led to a major spike on commodity prices, which could hurt a global economy just starting to normalize from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Analysts at OIES said in a report published Wednesday that an average of 5.36 vessels had moved through the Strait of Hormuz between March 2 and March 15, compared to an average of 94.3 vessels between March 1, 2025, and February 28, when U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began.

"For tankers specifically transporting oil and LNG, the decline is from 53.2 per day in 2025/26 to two per day in March 2026," analysts wrote.

Looking at the potential duration of the conflict, OIES said LNG supplies in particular are tight. Qatar, among the largest exporters of LNG in the world, declared force majeure on its exports due to the fighting in the Middle East.

That's dealt a particular blow to regional importers. The price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), a European benchmark for the wholesale price of natural gas, is up more than 50% since the fighting began in late February.

In its most optimistic scenario, OIES analysts said they expected the global LNG market to return to normal by July.

"This would likely require an agreement to end both the bombing of Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz to be reached by the end of April, at the latest," they wrote.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Iran wants a cease-fire and the fighting could be over within weeks. Iran's judiciary chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje'i, however, was quoted by Iranian broadcaster Press TV as saying the "conclusion of this battle" will see the destruction of its adversaries by the "Iran-led resistance."

U.S. to the Rescue?

The United States is the largest exporter of LNG and the largest producer of natural gas in the world. Shielded from the conflict, markets at home are under stress from a different kind of threat--the weather.

IIR Energy in its NATGAS Today report for Wednesday found domestic natural gas consumption was up 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) due to inclement weather this week. Heavy rains from Iowa through Michigan are driving up demand, which spiked regionally by more than 300% over the span of 24 hours.

That's done little, however, to curb the amount of feed gas going to terminals for conversion to LNG for exports. Feed gas levels were around 18.9 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on Wednesday, compared to a month-ago level closer to 16.9 Bcf.

The U.S. position as the top LNG exporter was bolstered Monday by the first production of the super-cooled gas from the Golden Pass terminal. The facility is small, however, with a design capacity of only 860 million cubic feet per day. That compares to Sabine Pass, which can handle 4.56 Bcf/d. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Production Plant Database can click here to see the related plant profiles.

By the Numbers

• 50% spike in TTF since Iran war began
• 2 tankers per day moving through Strait of Hormuz

Key Takeaways

• Best case is markets normalize by July
• OEIS finds traffic stalled in Strait of Hormuz

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).