Who Will Win Colombia's Presidential Election and What is at Stake?

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Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Three leading presidential candidates offer distinct stances on mining and extractives ahead of Sunday, May 31, election. Polls point to a likely runoff, with major implications for Colombia's hydrocarbons, mining and energy transition policies.

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Election Hovers over Hydrocarbon, Energy, Mining

Colombia will hold its presidential elections May 31, and current polls suggest no candidate is likely to receive more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a run-off election on June 21.

At current production levels, Colombia's oil reserves are projected to last 7.2 years and natural gas reserves to last 5.9 years. The incumbent government opposes fracking activities and froze new oil and gas exploration contracts.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking 161 oil and gas production projects in Colombia, totaling US$719 million of investment.

At the same time, Colombia has vast renewable resources to power its economy with solar and wind projects gaining further ground. According to Industrial Info Resources data, Colombia's Power Industry is home to 643 energy projects amounting to US$57 billion of investment.

In terms of mining, Colombia is a key coal, gold, and nickel producer, but it also has operations in other metals such as copper and silver. The number of mining projects tracked by IIR is 160, with projected investments of US$4.92 billion.

Ivan Cepeda -- The Left

Ivan Cepeda, who represents the ruling Pacto Historico party, would continue President Gustavo Petro's agenda. A member of parliament since 2010, he leads the polls with 37.1% of voter support according to polling firm Guarumo-Ecoanalitica, and 38.7% according to AtlasIntel. Although leading, his polling numbers are insufficient to win in the first round, where more than 50% of valid votes are needed.

Cepeda's campaign emphasizes strengthening social protections through land redistribution, support for farmers and agriculture, and poverty reduction. He supports the continued implementation of the 2016 peace agreements with guerilla groups and remains opens to negotiations with illegal armed groups.

Criticizing oil extraction through fracking and current extractive policies, Cepeda is aligned with Petro's transition away from new fossil-fuel expansion while prioritizing community input and environmental protection.

Abelardo de la Espriella -- The Right

Abelardo de la Espriella represents the right and is known for his firm stance against organized crime and his political rallies, famous for bulletproof glass and vests. He is an outspoken critic of the political establishment and has vowed to wage war against criminal groups aggressively if elected. Guarumo-Econoanalítica reports 27.5% voter support, while AtlasIntel shows him with 37.3%.

De la Espriella's main policies include refusing negotiations with criminal groups and targeting the destruction of coca farms. He supports increasing investments in the armed forces, police and prisons, taking an approach similar to policies seen in El Salvador.

De la Espriella also focuses on promoting private investments and reducing government expenditure, including an initial fiscal adjustment of about 70 trillion Colombian pesos (US$19 billion).

On hydrocarbons and mining, de la Espriella aims to restore exploration and production by creating a clear regulatory framework and protecting Ecopetrol as a national asset. He supports the extraction of gold, copper, silver, and rare earths, alongside a crackdown on illegal mining.

Paloma Valencia -- The Center-Right

Paloma Valencia represents the center-right and is the Centro Democrático candidate, backed by former president Álvaro Uribe. Her campaign seeks to attract voters opposed to the more extreme policies of her competitors. A senator since 2014 with a distinguished political family background, Valencia holds 21.7% in Guarumo-Econoanalitica and 14.3% in AtlasIntel.

Valencia focuses her campaign on increasing funding for the army and police to address crime and drug trafficking. She advocates supporting private investment in Colombian industries. Regarding hydrocarbons and mining, Valencia supports expanding resource extraction, including fracking, and the formalization of small-scale mining operations.

Political Polarization

The candidates' ideologies and popularity are a demonstration of Colombia's polarized politics.

Based on current polls, Colombia seems headed towards a run-off election between Cepeda and de la Espriella, where both will fight to attract votes from the centre. AtlasIntel projects Cepeda would lose in a runoff against either De La Espriella or Valencia.

Key Takeaways

• Colombia's election is likely headed to a runoff.
• Energy and mining policy is a major dividing line: Cepeda favors environmental/community controls, while De La Espriella and Valencia support reviving hydrocarbons, fracking and formal mining.
• Industrial Info Resources is tracking hundreds of hydrocarbons, energy, and mining projects worth billions across Colombia.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).