IIR Weekly Scorecard: Ratcheting up the Geo-Political, Geo-Economic Tensions. Wars. Trade Wars. Constrained Supply Chains. Hero Image

IIR Weekly Market Scorecard

IIR Weekly Scorecard: Ratcheting up the Geo-Political, Geo-Economic Tensions. Wars. Trade Wars. Constrained Supply Chains.

Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Released Monday, August 24, 2026

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Written for IIR Energy by Geoffrey S Lakings (Houston, TX)
Event MarCon* IIR Comment Outlet IIR News
Iran's president says U.S. memorandum is best path out of stalled war, and other Middle East news AI Summary: Iran's top security chief warned that supporting upcoming U.S. economic sanctions would be considered an "act of war," threatening seismic retaliation against regional oil routes. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian defended a stalled diplomatic memorandum of understanding with Washington as necessary for national economic recovery, as Pakistani mediators arrive in Tehran and Iran imposes new Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions. PBS Global Power Construction Spending Led by Nuclear, Wind
Russia likely to mobilize at least 300,000 more troops to Ukraine war, Zelensky warns AI Summary: According to reporting from the Saudi Gazette World News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expects Russia to mobilize 300,000 additional troops to capture Donetsk despite mounting Russian manpower losses. Facing declining U.S. Patriot missile deliveries, Kyiv is actively expanding long-range strikes while seeking Starlink satellite permissions and collaborating with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on a single-page peace framework. CNN Duke Energy Files 2026 Carolinas' Resource Plan
Oil slips ahead of US announcement of new sanctions on Iran Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on ‌Monday as investors took profits after recent gains and awaited details of expected new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which could further disrupt supplies from the Middle East. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is set to hold a press conference at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) on Monday, is expected to outline measures to broaden the scope of potential secondary sanctions on entities and countries that maintain economic ties with Iran. President Donald Trump has also threatened to impose sanctions on Iran's trading partners. Reuters U.S. Drivers Weary as Gas Station Prices at August High
S&P 500 futures fall slightly as chip stock slide outweighs yield decline

South Korea's Kospi drops over 3%, Japan's Nikkei 225 falls 0.7%
Canadian dollar weakens amid U.S. trade war escalation European markets open lower 		AI Summary: S&P 500 futures fell as tech losses outweighed lower Treasury yields driven by potential General Account buybacks. Reporting from Hindustan Times Business Coverage highlights ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict anxieties. Meanwhile, gold touched multi-month highs while investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address, PCE inflation data, and Nvidia earnings, detailed by Investing.com Market Analysis.

AI Summary: Global markets faltered as Asian equities slumped, led by a steep 3.1% plunge in South Korea's Kospi, while European stocks opened modestly lower. Concurrently, the Canadian dollar weakened following failed bilateral trade negotiations that triggered 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, prompting Ottawa to schedule retaliatory duties, as detailed by The Guardian Business Live Coverage.		 CNBC Glencore Eyes Growth at North American Copper, Nickel Mines

New Hydrocarbon Projects Move Forward Under Argentina's RIGI
Natural Gas News: ERCOT Demand Hits Records but Supply Holds Firm AI Summary: Record Texas heat and soaring ERCOT power demand are driving short-term support for September natural gas futures, as detailed in market coverage by FXEmpire Technical Analysis. However, prices remain capped by robust supply fundamentals, including a 4.4% production growth, storage heading toward ten- year highs, and expanding Permian pipeline capacity, leaving prices range-bound below key resistance. FX Empire Permian's Drilling Laterals Extend Longer and Longer
A powerful country on the other side of the world is quietly shaping Trump's latest trade fight AI Summary: Collapsing trade negotiations between Washington and Ottawa are being fueled by U.S. concerns over Chinese steel transshipment through Canada, as reported by Fox Business Trade Coverage. While Washington demands stricter supply-chain protections against Beijing, Canada has expanded commercial ties with China by easing electric vehicle tariffs and boosting agricultural exports, frustrating U.S. efforts to construct a unified, China-resistant trading bloc. FOX Business China's 'New Type' Power Storage Now Half of Global Capacity
Super El Niño Threatens Food, Water and Trade Worldwide AI Summary: The 2026 "Super El Niño" is rapidly intensifying into a historic climate event, with NOAA Climate Predictions projecting a 90% chance of a very strong occurrence. Threatening ecosystems, fisheries, and Panama Canal trade, severe warming could drive nearly 50 million people into acute hunger while fueling compounding global weather risks, according to WWF Climate Reports. OilPrice U.S. Food & Beverage Plant Expansions Add Up to Billions in Spending
Week 08/17/26 - 08/24/26 Geopolitics escalating affecting geoeconomics. Iran's security chief calling sanctions support an "act of war" alongside new Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions, while Zelenskyy's warning of Russia mobilizing 300,000 more troops.

Oil fell more than a dollar Monday -- profit-taking ahead of what Treasury Secretary Bessent calls the toughest sanctions in history. ERCOT set demand records while Henry Hub gas stayed range-bound on 4.4% production growth and storage near 10- year highs. Abundance is absorbing fear. But abundance is a supply-side answer to a chokepoint problem. Hormuz doesn't care about Permian laterals.

Meanwhile, the quieter escalation: 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports over Chinese steel transshipment. Ottawa retaliating. The trading bloc Washington wanted is fragmenting from inside. Seoul's Kospi fell 3%; gold touched multi-month highs while Jackson Hole waits on Warsh.

And beneath it, a 90% probability of a Super El Niño becomes a historic climate event compounding global weather risks as well as threatening Panama Canal transit.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

IIR Expert Commentary

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