IIR Weekly Market Scorecard - Breaking Geopolitical News

Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

IIR's Market Scorecard gives you the breaking news headlines from around the world, along with the directional impact to commodities, with expert indicators, and live links to IIR key research so you instantly have the details you need and make the right decisions.

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Monday, July 22, 2024:

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Israel shoots down a missile fired from Yemen hours after a deadly Israeli strike on Houthi rebels		The Israeli military said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen early Sunday, hours after Israeli warplanes struck several Houthi targets in the Arabian Peninsula country. The Israeli airstrikes - in response to a deadly Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv - were the first time Israel is known to have responded to repeated Houthi attacks throughout its nine-month war against Hamas. The burst of violence between the distant enemies has threatened to open a new front as Israel battles a series of Iranian proxies across the region.	AP News	BP Report Poses Two Scenarios for Global Energy Supply and Demand to 2050
Kyiv launches mass drone attack at Putin's forces in intense assault on east frontline		Russia's defence ministry claimed to have destroyed 75 drones launched by Ukraine in an overnight attack as Vladimir Putin's forces are staging relentless assaults to try to advance towards the town of Pokrovsk. Officials from the Krasnodar region in southern Russia claimed that debris from a drone that had been shot down caused a fire at the Black Sea Tuapse oil refinery, owned by oil major Rosneft.	Independent	Automotive Webinar: Electric Vehicle Sector Faces Headwinds
Oil market likely to be in surplus next year, Morgan Stanley says		The crude oil market is currently tight but next year will likely be in surplus, with Brent prices declining into the mid-to-high $70s range, Morgan Stanley said. The tightness will hold for most of the third quarter, the bank said in a note dated on Friday, but equilibrium will return by the fourth quarter, "when seasonal demand tailwinds abate and both OPEC and non-OPEC supply return to growth." Morgan Stanley said it expects OPEC and non-OPEC supply to grow by about 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, well ahead of demand growth. Refinery runs are set to reach a peak in August this year, and unlikely to return to that level until July 2025, it said.	Reuters	Greasing the Wheels of Progress--The Standard of Oil
Gold firms as dollar loses footing following Biden withdrawal		Gold prices edged up on Monday as the dollar weakened in response to President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, while the market geared up for Friday's U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for further clues on the timing of interest rate cuts. The market is now awaiting U.S. gross domestic product data for the second quarter on Thursday, as well as the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data on Friday. Investors will also focus on comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the conclusion of the Fed's July 30-31 meeting, with money markets fully pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut by September.	CNBC	Google's Data-Center Boom Clashes with Environmental Efforts
Natural Gas News: Futures Surge Above $2.20 Amid Bullish Speculation		This dramatic move suggests that the July 17 plunge to $2.015 may have been a capitulation point, potentially setting the stage for a short-covering rally. Potential Catalysts Behind the Rally Speculation on Weather Reports: There's speculation that updated weather forecasts over the weekend might indicate a potential heatwave across major gas-consuming regions in the coming weeks. Rumors of Production Slowdown: Unconfirmed reports suggest a possible decline in production, with output potentially approaching the 100 Bcf/d mark. Freeport LNG Facility Restart Speculation: Market chatter indicates that the Freeport LNG facility might be ramping up operations more quickly than initially anticipated. While significant risks remain, the natural gas market appears to be showing signs of a possible bullish phase. If the speculated catalysts materialize, today's price action might suggest that the market has found its bottom	FX Empire	Kinder Morgan Upbeat Despite Low Natural Gas Prices
Russian Oil Is Still Paying for Putin's War		Almost two and half years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow's war machine still runs on energy revenues-despite unprecedented Western sanctions that took a bite out of, but hardly battered, the Kremlin's cash cow.	Foreign Policy	U.K., EU Crack Down on Russia's 'Shadow Fleet'
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan Forge Green Energy Export Alliance		Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan are collaborating to create a green energy export infrastructure, prioritizing wind energy and aiming for a significant increase in renewable energy production. Kazakhstan's ambitious green energy targets include raising renewable energy's share of power generation to 15% by 2030 and 50% by 2050. Kazakhstan is considering the construction of a nuclear power plant, with public opinion divided on the issue and concerns about environmental impact and potential involvement of Russian entities in the project.	OilPrice	DOE Backs Puerto Rico's Turn to Solar After Beryl's Damage
Week 07/15/24 - 07/22/24		Escalation in the Middle East as well as Eastern Europe along with Biden stepping out of the U.S. presidential race makes Mr. Oil Market wonder what else lies in store in these tumultuous times. For the moment, crude prices (WTI, Brent) have pulled back while assimilating this news and awaiting more U.S. economic data to come out over the course of this week. These hydrocarbon markets have weathered much in regards to geopolitical tensions, economics and fundamentals (are we over or under-supplied?) these past few weeks, and are seeking a clear sentiment with which to move forward.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.