IIR Weekly Market Scorecard - Breaking Geopolitical News

Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

IIR's Market Scorecard gives you the breaking news headlines from around the world, along with the directional impact to commodities, with expert indicators, and live links to IIR key research so you instantly have the details you need and make the right decisions.

For more information email us: iirteam@iirenergy.com

Monday, September 15, 2025:

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Qatar hosts Arab-Islamic emergency summit over Israeli strike on Doha		An emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic states is taking place in Qatar in response to Israel's air strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. A draft resolution seen by the Reuters news agency condemns what it calls Israel's "hostile acts including genocide, ethnic cleansing, [and] starvation," which it says threatens "prospects of peace and coexistence." Israel has strongly denied such allegations. It is not clear what practical decisions could be taken, as analysts say any kind of military response is out of the question.	BBC	Alaska LNG Secures Asian Steel and Offtake Agreements
Is there any prospect of ending Russia's war in Ukraine?		The battle for territory grinds on slowly but brutally in eastern Ukraine - both above and below ground. There is also anxiety in Europe after Russian drones entered the airspace of two NATO members. There is anxiety, too, at the level of support the U.S. might offer in any confrontation. So, a month after his face-to-face meetings with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, what is Trump's thinking about the war? And what is the strategy inside the Kremlin - and in Ukraine, and of its European allies? Is there any prospect of ending this war?	Aljazeera	Dallas Fed Finds Oil Prices, Tariffs Creating Energy Sector Pressures
Oil edges up after attacks on Russian energy facilities		Oil prices edged higher on Monday as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he was prepared to impose sanctions on Russia if NATO nations stop buying Russian oil. Ukraine launched a large attack with at least 361 drones targeting Russia overnight, sparking a brief fire at the vast Kirishi oil refinery in Russia's northwest, Russian officials said on Sunday. Both crude contracts gained more than 1% last week as Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the largest oil exporting terminal, Primorsk.	Reuters	IEA Anticipating Non-OPEC Production Gains
Orsted shares fall 5.5% after deeply discounted capital raise; European stocks rise South Korea's Kospi index hits record high after government scraps tax-hike plan		European stocks rose to start the new trading week ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday. On Monday, there are no major European earnings reports, but EU trade data will be published. It's a busy week for the U.K. as it prepares for U.S. President Donald Trump's state visit. Asia-Pacific markets trading was mixed as investors kept an eye on the talks between the U.S. and China in Spain, and assessed a slate of data from Beijing. U.S. and Chinese officials began talks in Madrid Sunday to discuss key national security, economic and trade issues, including the upcoming deadline to divest Chinese short video app TikTok and U.S. tariffs. China is expected to release data on retail sales, fixed asset investment and urban unemployment rate later in the day.	CNBC	Permits Sought for Giant Scottish Floating Offshore Windfarm U.S. Metal, Steel Developers Gird for $2 Billion in Kickoffs
Natural Gas News: Forecast Turns Cautiously Bearish as Market Eyes Late-September Heat		U.S. natural gas futures ended the week in retreat, settling at $2.941, down 10.7 cents or 3.51%. Despite midweek support from warmer forecasts, the market was pressured by strong production, a bearish storage report and a notable drop in LNG feedgas flows. Even supportive weather may only slow-not reverse-price weakness. Without a significant surge in either LNG demand or domestic consumption, the near-term outlook remains bearish into late September.	FX Empire	Will Turbine Shortage Blunt Drive For New-Build Gas-Fired Generation?
US-China Trade Talks Resume In Madrid		China and the United States resumed trade talks on Monday in Madrid, seeking to narrow differences on trade and technology that have strained relations between the world's two largest economies. The agenda includes two of the thorniest issues in the bilateral relationship: President Donald Trump's threat of steep tariffs on Chinese imports and Washington's demand that TikTok be sold to a non-Chinese owner or face a US ban by September 17. The meetings could lay groundwork for a possible summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this year. Until then, negotiators face the challenge of stabilising an uneasy truce while addressing disputes over technology access, tariffs and rare earth exports.	Barron's	Babcock & Wilcox to Convert Coal Plants to Gas for Data Centers
A Landmark Water-Energy Swap Deal in Central Asia		Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have worked out detailed swap arrangements covering water and electricity, aiming to improve agricultural productivity in areas experiencing dry conditions. Under the key agreement,...Kyrgyzstan will receive electricity from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; in return, Bishkek will release additional water supplies from the Toktogul Reservoir. Astana also agreed to facilitate electricity transmissions to Kyrgyzstan from Russia via the Kazakh power grid. Areas of southern Kazakhstan have grappled with especially arid conditions in 2025, with little rainfall and high temperatures. In its September update, the GEOGLAM crop monitor notes that "dry conditions continue to negatively impact crop development in most areas" of Central Asia. It notes that Uzbekistan's wheat yield, for example, is expected to be roughly 10% lower this harvest season, compared with the same season in 2024.	OilPrice	Hydrogen Council Report Presents Rosy Outlook for Sector Despite Obvious Headwinds
Week 09/08/25 - 09/15/25		Geopolitics begin to take an upper hand over Geoeconomics as Qatar prepares to host an emergency summit after last week's Israel strike on Hamas leaders in Doha; while Russian drones have entered the airspace of (2) NATO members and Ukraine drones further target Russian energy facilities. However, geoeconomics could get a boost from the U.S. Fed as well as possible positive news from U.S. meetings with the U.K. and their resuming trade talks with China. However, EU trade data and Chinese retail sales and other releases will be forthcoming, which could roil these energy commodity markets further. For the moment, it is still anybody's guess whether Mr. Oil Market will continue to rise on recent increased geopolitical tension or be pressured to the downside because of further economic uncertainty.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.