A Trusted Data Source for Supply & Demand Side Intelligence
| Event | MarCon* | IIR Comment | Outlet | IIR News |
| 'Real chance' of Gaza ceasefire success, source says |  |
The Israel Defense Forces continues its intense airstrike & ground campaigns in Gaza. The November ceasefire in Lebanon is holding despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets.... Israeli forces also remain active inside the Syrian border region as victorious rebels there build a transitional government. Tensions remain high between Israel and Iran.. (with) threats of further military action from both sides. The IDF and the Yemeni Houthis also continue to exchange attacks. (Meanwhile) a latest round of peace talks to end the 15-month-old war has resumed in Qatar, with high-level delegations traveling to Doha. A source close to the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar told ABC News that Israel is waiting for Hamas to approve moving into a final "closing round of negotiations," adding there is a "real chance" for a "breakthrough" after a diplomatic blitz in Doha this weekend. |
ABC News | Ameren, Occidental Petroleum, Low British Gas Stores: Your Daily Energy News |
| Russia 'prepared for any scenario' on Ukraine war as Trump presidency nears |  |
Trump has repeatedly signalled his willingness to negotiate with Russia, telling a news conference on January 7 that he sympathised with Moscow's stated concerns about NATO expansion on its western borders. However, overall the atmosphere in the Kremlin is more cautious, given Trump's track record during his previous presidency, during which extra sanctions were imposed on Russia and arms were sent to Ukraine. |
Aljazeera | PJM Pushes for More Investment in T&D as Demand Skyrockets |
| Oil jumps on expected hit to China and India's Russian supplies | |
Oil extended gains for a third session on Monday, with Brent crude rising above $80 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, driven by wider U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the expected effects on exports to top buyers India and China. The new sanctions included producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting revenue Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine. Russian oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, pushing China and India to source more crude from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, which will boost prices and shipping costs, traders and analysts said. |
Reuters | Whale of a Prospect Starts in U.S. Gulf of Mexico |
| European markets lower as economic concerns persist; U.S. dollar hits two-year high Gold rebounds on Trump policy uncertainty despite robust U.S. jobs data Mainland China leads losses in Asia markets |
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European markets were lower on Monday amid persisting jitters over the global economy and a surging U.S. dollar. Regional markets closed lower last Friday, as investors reacted to the latest U.S. jobs data that showed nonfarm payrolls were up by 256,000 last month - much more than the 155,000 forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones. The data subdued sentiment among global markets as it raised concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve would proceed with caution when it comes to further interest rate cuts. Gold prices rebounded on Friday as uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration's policies lifted safe-haven appeal Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Friday, with investors assessing November pay and household spending out from Japan. |
CNBC | Constellation Energy to Acquire Calpine for $16.4 Billion |
| Natural Gas News: Weather Gap Higher Fades as Prices Pull Back Below $4.201 | |
U.S. natural gas futures initially surged on Monday, gapping higher at the open to reach $4.369. However, the market has since retreated below $4.201, signaling resistance at higher levels as traders reassess the balance between bullish weather-driven demand and broader market conditions. Record LNG exports to Europe and cold weather tighten U.S. gas supply, putting inventories under pressure. Analysts warn storage surplus of 3,373 Bcf could erode quickly with sustained cold and export activity. |
FX Empire | European Gas Prices Moderate After New Year Spike |
| China exports accelerate amid trade tensions, imports surprise |  |
China's exports gained momentum in December, with imports also showing recovery, though strength at the year-end was in part fuelled by factories rushing inventory overseas as they braced for heightened trade risks under a Trump presidency. Exports have been a vital growth engine for the $18 trillion economy, which is still burdened by a prolonged property crisis and shaky consumer confidence. While policymakers can find solace in recent policy measures keeping the economy on track for an "around 5%" growth target, challenges such as potential U.S. tariff hikes cloud the outlook for 2025. Imports surprised to the upside with 1.0% growth, the strongest performance since July 2024. Economists had expected a 1.5% decline. "Import growth could be underpinned by stockpiling of commodities like copper and iron ore, as part of (China's) 'buy low' strategy," he added. |
Reuters | Mining Rivals Team Up for Australia's Biggest Green Iron Pilot |
| Canada's $16.5B Carbon Capture Project In Jeopardy After Trudeau's Resignation | |
According to industry watchers, the $16.5B project faces an uncertain future with a new federal government to be elected later this year. To be built by the Pathways Alliance, a consortium whose members include some of Canada's largest energy companies, the high-profile project would capture harmful carbon dioxide emissions from the Canadian oilsands, the country's heaviest-emitting sector. ...Alberta's politicians have no plans to ditch the province's main cash cow any time soon. Alberta premier Danielle Smith has declared that the energy-rich region will transition away from emissions, not oil. |
OilPrice | Trudeau's Resignation Leaves Questions for the Future |
| Week 01/06/25 - 01/13/25 | |
Peace on one hand, Economic risks on the other seems to be what Uncle Sam is posturing here in the New Year. In Doha there might finally - though still highly unlikely - be a breakthrough on an Israeli ceasefire deal with Hamas; and Russia is open to speaking and negotiating with the incoming U.S. administration - though uncertainty remains if a ceasefire leading to an agreement to bring the Russia-Ukraine war to an end can actually be accomplished. Meanwhile, there are heightened economic risks to global markets because of the incoming U.S. administration's policy that is believed to "play hardball with tariffs." This has Europe and Asia positioning themselves for "concerns" of what could be unfolding out of Washington as the greenback hits two-year highs. All that we know for certain is that it is mostly anyone's guess as to whether the rhetoric from the President-elect will be enforced by executive actions and policy. | ||
| *MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR. | ||||
