| Event | MarCon* | IIR Comment | Outlet | IIR News |
| Qatar claims slight progress toward ceasefire in Gaza |  |
Qatar's prime minister says there has been "a bit of progress" in efforts to broker a new ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, but that there was still no "answer for the ultimate question: how to end this war". It follows his meeting with the head of Israel's spy agency on Thursday. Speaking in Doha, Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan said that Hamas appeared to be more receptive to negotiating a lasting solution to the war. |
BBC | Phillips 66, U.S. Rig Count, Russia-Iran Gas Deal: Your Daily Energy News |
| Rubio Says Trump Will Decide This Week on Continuing Ukraine War Talks | |
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that the Trump administration will decide this week whether to continue pursuing a negotiated settlement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine or to turn its attention to other matters. It was not clear if the timeline he offered was meant to pressure Ukraine and Russia to agree to enter direct discussions toward a deal, or whether President Trump and his aides were seriously considering walking away. |
The New York Times | Precision Drilling Strikes Positive Tone on Oil, Gas Outlook |
| Oil prices stable amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears |  |
Oil prices were stable on Monday as investors weighed uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China, clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, as well as the prospect of OPEC+ raising supply. Brent futures rose marginally in the previous two sessions, but nonetheless marked a week-on-week decrease of over 1% on Friday on concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy. |
Reuters | With Planned Refinery Closures, California May Have to Import Fuels |
| European stocks rise, Asia-Pacific markets mixed as investors assess China's promises to support industries, Gold slips as trade tensions subside, dollar firms |
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European markets were higher with nearly all sectors in the green on Monday, as investors brace for a slew of major earnings and data releases both in Europe and the U.S. this week. This week, French and German gross domestic product and inflation data out Wednesday will be closely watched, as well as earnings from HSBC, BP, Deutsche Bank, and Shell. Asia-Pacific markets traded was mixed on Monday as investors assessed China's promises to support domestic businesses as well as developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries in the region. Investors will also be keeping tabs on developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries in the region, after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that another pause to his "reciprocal tariffs" was unlikely, according to Bloomberg reports. Gold prices fell on Monday, as the dollar held firm and hopes for de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions dented appetite for safe-haven assets. |
CNBC | Trump Orders Sunset Dates on Energy Regulations |
| Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast Today as Futures Break Below 200-Day Moving Average |  |
U.S. natural gas futures were under pressure early Monday, as traders reacted to bearish signals from both technical and fundamental fronts. Prices remained pinned below the crucial 200-day moving average at $3.085, suggesting sellers continue to control the market heading into May contract expiration. Natural gas futures have now fallen for 10 straight sessions, weighed down by mild spring temperatures and sluggish demand typical of the shoulder season. Despite a tighter year-over-year supply picture-storage levels are down 20.2% versus last year-the higher-than-expected injection and ongoing mild weather are keeping pressure on futures. |
FX Empire | U.S. LNG Levels Remain High, Though Warnings Emerge Over Emissions |
| Agriculture isn't nearing trade war tariffs crisis, 'it is full blown crisis already,' farmers say |  |
The clock is ticking on trade deals that the U.S. will need to strike with many nations, most notably China, to avoid what Trump's Treasury Secretary has described as an "unsustainable" tariffs war. But in the U.S. farming sector, the damage has already been done and the economic crisis already begun. U.S. agriculture exporters say the global backlash to President Trump's tariffs is punishing them, especially a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, leading to cancelled export orders and layoffs. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday revealed China made its biggest cancellation of pork orders since 2020, halting a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork. AgTC says "massive" financial losses are already being shared by its members as a result of the trade war, based on reports it is receiving from member companies. |
CNBC | Flurry of DOI Moves Seek to Boost Production of Hydrocarbons, Critical Minerals |
| Renewables Emerge as Key to Meet AI-Driven Energy Demand | |
The operator of the largest gas-fired electricity generation fleet in America believes that renewables will be vital to meet the rise in power demand driven by AI and the reshoring of manufacturing. NextEra Energy - whose 72 gigawatts (GW) operating portfolio consists of 55% renewables, 36% gas, and 8% nuclear power generation - says that America will need all forms of energy to meet the expected surge in demand. And wind, solar, and battery storage can act as the "bridge" energy source until new natural gas and nuclear capacity comes online. For years, natural gas was touted as the "bridge fuel" between coal and renewables. Now, renewables should be viewed as the energy source to help meet demand until new gas and nuclear power plants are commissioned, NextEra's chairman, president, and CEO, John Ketchum, said on the company's Q1 earnings call this week. |
OilPrice | Codelco Awards Contracts to Buy 1.5 TWh Per Year from Renewable Sources |
| Week 04/21/25 - 04/28/25 | |
Should we stay? Or should we go? These are are questions being raised by the U.S. Administration over the war in Eastern Europe as realization dawns that a ceasefire leading to a peace accord just might not be in the cards. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, there appears a faint glimmer of hope in brokering another ceasefire between Israel & Hamas; however, like Eastern Europe, there appears to be no end to the war(s) in sight. Although, in Asia there are rumblings that several negotiations are taking place among countries pertaining to the U.S. - China Trade War and maybe some clarity as to what tomorrow might bring will be gleaned. In all of this, Mr. Oil Market is balancing a tightrope, geopolitics, geo-economics, and their impact to fundamentals - which lean bearish. In the moment, it appears all the major actors are willing to remain on the global stage, playing various roles without anyone going to the exits, but... | ||
| *MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR. | ||||
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