IIR Weekly Market Scorecard - Breaking Geopolitical News

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IIR's Market Scorecard gives you the breaking news headlines from around the world, along with the directional impact to commodities, with expert indicators, and live links to IIR key research so you instantly have the details you need and make the right decisions.

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Wednesday, January 20th, 2021:

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	IIR Links	Outlet
IEA cutting forecast for 2021 demand rebound		“World oil demand will be lower than forecast this year as a surge in new coronavirus cases looks likely to keep restrictions on the global economy in place, the International Energy Agency has said. The agency warned that a string of new lockdowns across big economies will keep a lid on oil demand over the first months of the year, before the impact of COVID-19 vaccines begins to take effect in the second half. The IEA’s influential monthly oil report has cut demand forecasts for the first quarter of this year by 600,000 barrels a day, and has trimmed its projections for the year by 300,000 barrels a day.”	IEA Sees Global Coal Demand Rising in 2021 Assuming Economies Recover from Pandemic	The Guardian
Oil is still rallying despite demand concerns		“Oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday on rising concerns about oil demand. New lockdown restrictions in China spooked the market.“ The COVID-19 pandemic’s spread is taking center stage again and traders are getting increasingly worried about the long duration of European lockdown and about the new restrictions (in) China,” Bjornar Tonnage from Rystad Energy said. However, oil regained lost ground in early trading on Tuesday.“	U.S. Oil, Gas Producers Face Dim 2021 Outlook; Crude Leads $3.2 Billion in First-Quarter Kickoffs	OilPrice
EIA expecting U.S. fossil fuel production to increase through 2022		“In 2020, fossil fuel production in the U.S. declined by an estimated 6% from the 2019 record high of 81.3 quadrillion Btu. Based on forecasts in the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January 2021 ‘Short-Term Energy Outlook,’ the EIA expects total production of fossil fuels in the U.S. to remain flat in 2021 as increased coal production offsets declines in natural gas production. The EIA expects production of all fossil fuels – crude oil, coal, dry natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) – to increase in 2022, but forecast fossil fuel production will remain lower than the 2019 peak.”	EIA: Renewables to Account for Most New U.S. Power Generation Coming Online in 2021	Hydrocarbon Engineering
Total is quitting the API		“The American Petroleum Institute, the nation's largest and most powerful oil lobby, is losing one of its biggest members over a disagreement about addressing the climate crisis. France's Total announced Friday it is quitting the API because of the lobby's stances on regulation and carbon pricing as well as its support for politicians who oppose the Paris climate agreement. The move makes Total the first major oil company to leave the API because of the climate crisis.”	API Chief Hails Oil & Gas Industry's Performance, Calls for Light Regulation	CNN
Hydrocarbon demand to peak in 2027		“Aggregate fossil fuel demand is set to peak in 2027, as electrification increases and the role of renewables in power systems grows rapidly, according to a new study from McKinsey. The Global Energy Perspective 2021 report finds that while coal demand has peaked already, peaks in demand for oil and gas are not far behind, with oil peaking in 2029 and gas in 2037. The pandemic has resulted in a “profound reduction” in energy demand, from which McKinsey expects it will take between one to four years to recover – with electricity and gas demand expected to bounce back more quickly than demand for oil.”	Dallas Fed Survey: Oil Patch Outlook Improves	Renews Biz
Weekly Recap: 1/13-1/20		What’s up doc? Eyes are turning to the pharmaceutical industries and frontline health care workers to see if there is a means to increase the vaccination rollouts as COVID outbreaks roil the world’s economies. Although, oil pricing remains resilient, but for how long? Something's got to give, doesn’t it? We shall definitely know in a few weeks what gives, but for now we witness Total quitting the API and an announcement that “peak demand” is around the corner. I think the former will lead to eventual oil regulation changes, but doubt the veracity of the latter. Truth is hydrocarbons are here to stay for the foreseeable future & beyond; it will just come down to policy implementations as to the role hydrocarbons will play in an ever greening world.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.