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| Event | MarCon* | IIR Comment | Outlet | IIR News |
| Assad's exit breaks Iran's sway in Syria but risks Islamist resurgence |  |
The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after rebel forces swept into Damascus this weekend, shattered Iran's network of influence in the Middle East but Israel, the United States and Arab powers must now deal with the risk of instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that replaces him. Chief among the rebel forces that ended 50 years of brutal dynastic rule by Assad and his father was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muslim group previously affiliated with Al Qaeda that is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the U.N. |
Reuters | U.S. Manufacturing Activity Survey Shows Slowing Contraction, Less Positive Outlook |
| Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskyy suggests foreign troops could be deployed to Ukraine before Nato membership agreed |  |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy floated the idea on Monday of foreign troops being deployed to Ukraine until the country joins the Nato military alliance. "A troop contingent from one country or another could be present in Ukraine for as long as it isn't part of Nato. But for that we need to have a clear understanding of when Ukraine becomes an EU member and when a Nato member," Zelenskyy said. "Ukraine wants this war to end more than anyone else. No doubt, a diplomatic resolution would save more lives. We do seek it," Zelenskyy told reporters. "You can only exert force if Ukraine is strong. A strong Ukraine before any diplomacy means a strong (Ukraine) on the battlefield," he said, implying Kyiv needed help to become stronger. |
The Guardian | Steel Giant Thyssenkrupp to Shed 40% of Workforce |
| Oil prices rise as China eyes monetary easing to boost growth |  |
Oil prices climbed by more than 1% on Monday as top importer China flagged its first move towards a loosened monetary policy stance since 2010 in a drive to bolster economic growth, state media reported citing a Politburo meeting. "The easing of monetary policy stance in China is likely the driver of the oil price rebounding, supporting risk sentiment," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. |
Reuters | Chevron Favoring Cash Flow Over Increased Production |
| European markets trade higher as new trading week get underway; luxury, mining stocks rise on China stimulus hopes Dollar jittery as market eyes CPI data Gold gains on U.S. rate cut bets, renewed purchases by China central bank |
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European markets were higher on Monday as the new trading week got underway, with investors weighing geopolitical turmoil. The euro held steady against the dollar in skittish trading on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data later this week, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied after China pledged an "appropriately loose" monetary policy next year. Elsewhere, Hong Kong stocks jumped close to 3% during the last hour of trading as China's leaders vowed "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy for next year, moves which could boost domestic consumption. Gold prices climbed on Monday as China's central bank resumed gold purchases after a six-month pause, while expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week strengthened. |
CNBC | Pressures Apparent from Weak Commodities, Dallas Fed Finds |
| Natural Gas News: Futures Gap Higher as Colder Weather Lifts Demand Outlook | |
Colder weather forecasts drive U.S. natural gas futures higher, breaking key technical levels and setting up bullish targets. Weekend weather models add 20 heating degree days (HDDs), forecasting a cold snap for Dec. 20-23 across the U.S. East and Midwest. Prices surge past $3.115 support, with resistance at $3.383 and $3.444. A breach could push futures toward the main top of $3.647. Traders eye colder trends and inventory updates as key drivers for natural gas price action in the coming weeks. |
FX Empire | U.S. Gas-Fired Plants Prep for Wave of First-Quarter Maintenance |
| The U.S.-China Trade War Could Be More Disruptive This Time |  |
China announced this week that it was banning the export of some rare minerals to the U.S. - one day after the Biden administration tightened Chinese access to advanced U.S. technology. This raises the possibility there could be yet a further escalation of the trade war. A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that ending China's PNTR status would cause higher U.S. inflation and a short-term decline in U.S. gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The study concluded: "Stock market prices would fall, with agricultural, durable manufacturing, and mining firms absorbing the biggest declines." Weighing these considerations, the risk is that the next phase of the U.S.-China trade conflict could be more detrimental to both China and the U.S. than the initial round. If so, global markets could turn volatile as investors realize there are no winners from a trade war between the world's two largest economies that is more disruptive than before. |
Forbes | PTT Asahi Chemical Readies to Close Factory in Thailand |
| Iran's Uranium Enrichment Surge Sparks International Concern | |
Iran is poised to significantly increase the production rate of highly enriched uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned in a confidential report. The IAEA report said the effect of the change "would be to significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent," according to news agencies quoting the report on December 6. IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, who spoke to reporters about the report on the sidelines of an international conference in Bahrain, said the increase would represent "seven or eight times or even more," calling the development very concerning. |
OilPrice | Brazil Could See Big Biofuel Investment Between 2025 and 2034 |
| Week 12/02/24 - 12/09/24 | |
All eyes turn to the Middle Eastern Holy Lands this holidaze season as rebels forced Assad to flee to Russia, further breaking Iranian sway - already jarred by the recent Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire - in these Lands. Now there is concern about the possibility of ISIS coalescing into the power vacuum in Syria - which led to several U.S. military strikes across the region; while Iran - according to the IAEA - is poised to increase its production rate of highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, glancing north to Eastern Europe, tension is ratcheting up between Ukraine and Russia as yet more foreign troops - North Korea is already present - might join the war. Looking to the Far East there could be but the beginning of yet another disruptive - and more volatile - trade war between the U.S. and China. All of this geopolitical news is moving economic, gold and energy markets higher. Peace and goodwill just might not be in the cards these Holidaze. | ||
| *MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR. | ||||
