IIR Weekly Market Scorecard - Breaking Geopolitical News

Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

IIR's Market Scorecard gives you the breaking news headlines from around the world, along with the directional impact to commodities, with expert indicators, and live links to IIR key research so you instantly have the details you need and make the right decisions.

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Monday, June 30, 2025:

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
U.S. sees a new Middle East. Gulf allies fret about an unrestrained Israel.		Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and others in the region have sought closer relations with Iran over recent years in hopes of fostering stability. At the same time, some of the Arab monarchies have grown increasingly wary of Israel, viewing it as a belligerent and unpredictable regional player for its military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere.. the Gulf States remained "very committed to relations with Iran for the purposes of regional de-escalation"	The Washington Post	IIR Mid-Year Outlook: Global Economic Fundamentals Strong Despite Current Turmoil
Russia launches the biggest aerial attack since the start of the war, Ukraine says		Russia launched its biggest aerial attack against Ukraine overnight, a Ukrainian official said Sunday, part of an escalating bombing campaign that has further dashed hopes for a breakthrough in efforts to end the 3-year-old war. Russian forces have been slowly grinding forward at some points on the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, though their incremental gains have been costly in terms of troop casualties and damaged armor. Sunday's attacks follow Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments two days ago that Moscow is ready for a fresh round of direct peace talks in Istanbul. Two recent rounds of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul were brief and yielded no progress on reaching a settlement.	AP News	Carbon Management Event: Economics Will Triumph Over Ideology, Eventually
Oil prices steady on easing Middle East risks		Oil prices held steady on Monday as Middle East risks eased while a possible OPEC+ output increase in August and uncertainty over the global demand outlook weighed on the market. The Brent and WTI benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but are set for a second consecutive monthly gain of more than 5%. The market is back to a range-trading environment that is likely to continue until new economic growth concerns emerge or supply disruptions materialise, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.	Reuters	Gasoline Demand Up, Prices Stable Ahead of July 4 U.S. Refiners Eye $1.3 Billion in Third-Quarter Developments
Turbine-maker Vestas down 5% on 'big, beautiful bill' headwinds; Europe stocks retreat Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors parse a slew of data releases Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax after Trump cuts off U.S. trade talks		Germany's annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 2% in June, bringing Europe's largest economy in line with the European Central Bank's target, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Monday. The German print is harmonized across the euro zone, allowing for a direct comparison with other single currency states. The consumer price index had eased to 2.1% in the year to May. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday as investors parsed details on trade negotiations and a slew of data points, including South Korea and Japan's industrial output figures for May and China's purchasing managers' index readings for June. China's manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in June, fueling hopes for more stimulus to cushion the impact of ongoing trade disruptions between the superpower and the U.S. Canada has walked back on its digital services tax "in anticipation" of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States, Ottawa announced Sunday night, just one day before the first tax payments were due.	CNBC	U.S. Smelters, Foundries to Add, Improve Capacity Amid Tariffs Canada Passes Fast-Track Nation-Building Bill
Natural Gas News: Market Hesitates as Hot Weather Forecast Faces Uncertainty Today		Hot weather forecasts face uncertainty, limiting conviction buying as traders monitor cooling demand trends. Natural gas futures slip as traders reassess heat-driven rally, testing support at $3.577 for market signals. Traders watch the 50-day moving average at $3.900; a clear break could target $4.048 if demand strengthens. However, without a clear catalyst, such as a persistent heat-driven spike in demand, the path higher looks constrained in the near term. The market leans neutral-to-bearish unless weather forecasts firm up, with a high probability of range-bound trade this week as traders gauge physical demand signals against a well-supplied backdrop.	FX Empire	Trump Administration Announces Gulf Lease Sale
China confirms details of U.S. trade deal		The U.S. and China have confirmed details of a trade framework that seeks to allow rare earth exports and easing of tech restrictions, according to a statement released by China's Ministry of Commerce on Friday afternoon. China will review and approve export applications for items subject to export control rules, while the U.S. will correspondingly cancel a range of existing restrictive measures imposed against Beijing, a spokesperson for the ministry said in the statement, without elaborating.	CNBC	U.S. Allows Ethane Exports to China Again--'Just Don't Unload'
Data Center Demand Fuels Unprecedented Utility Investment		U.S. power utilities are set to spend $212.1 billion in capex this year, which would be a 22.3% increase on the year as they race to secure new electricity supply for data centers, the Financial Times has reported, citing data from Jefferies. Compared to 10 years ago, the rise in investment stands at an impressive 129%. According to the investment bank, capex in the power utility sector in the United States will hit an all-time high in 2027, at $228.1 billion. Last week, Wood Mackenzie reported that annual investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure by U.S. investor-owned utilities has nearly doubled over the past decade, from just over $50 billion in 2016 to more than $100 billion in 2025. However, challenges were surfacing, such as supply bottlenecks amid a surge in demand for various equipment.	OilPrice	Constellation's Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant Could Restart in 2027 India's Reliance Limited Unveils Plans for World's Biggest Data Center
Week 06/23/25 - 06/30/25		Most geopolitical tensions and markets are easing and retreating, except for Eastern Europe, where Russia launched its largest aerial assault. The Middle East is striving for regional de-escalation after the brief Israel-Iran war, remaining cautiously optimistic the agreed-upon ceasefire will hold. Meanwhile, Mr. Oil Market settles back into his range-bound ways for the foreseeable future, weighing economic concerns with fundamentals as yet more OPEC+ supply could be forthcoming. Eyes now shift to the U.S. and the legislation making its way through Congress as well as what lies in store with the "pause" on Tariffs. This is as China confirms details of a new trade deal with the U.S. and possibly trade talks will pick back up with Canada, the EU and other Nations...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.