IIR Weekly Market Scorecard - Breaking Geopolitical News

Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

IIR's Market Scorecard gives you the breaking news headlines from around the world, along with the directional impact to commodities, with expert indicators, and live links to IIR key research so you instantly have the details you need and make the right decisions.

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Monday, July 14, 2025:

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Gaza ceasefire talks on verge of collapse, Palestinian officials say		Negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar on a new Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal are on the brink of collapse, according to Palestinian officials familiar with the details of the discussions. Since last Sunday, Israeli and Hamas negotiators have attended eight rounds of indirect "proximity" talks in separate buildings in Doha. They have been facilitated by Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani and senior Egyptian intelligence officials, and attended by US envoy Brett McGurk.	BBC	ExxonMobil, U.S. Rig Count: Your Daily Energy News
Senators tout Russia sanctions bill as 'sledgehammer' for Trump to end war in Ukraine		Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal are urging quick action by the US as Russia escalates its war in Ukraine, including the passage of a bipartisan bill they've introduced implementing sanctions on Moscow that they say could be the "sledgehammer" President Donald Trump needs to end the conflict. Trump told reporters later Sunday that "we will see tomorrow" when asked whether he would announce sanctions against Russia, noting he'll meet on Monday with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and pledged to send "very sophisticated military" to Ukraine.	CNN	OPEC: Canada, Brazil, Argentina to Lead Oil Growth Beyond 2030
Oil hits 3-week high on signs of tighter supply		Oil prices rose on Monday to their highest level in three weeks, as investors eyed further U.S. sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies, while more oil imports by China also offered support along with signs of tighter supply. Higher crude imports by China and expectations around U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on Russia are supporting prices, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "...There is still a perceived tightness in the market, with most of the inventory build in China and on ships, and not in key locations," he said.	Reuters	Inflation Up, Retail Gasoline Prices Down
European markets head south after Trump slaps 30% tariff on EU Treasury yields hold steady as Trump threatens 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico		Trifecta of risks heading towards complacent markets, says Deutsche Bank "Markets are clearly not pricing in these higher tariffs, and we may only know the outcome in the final hours, offering the potential for a sharp market reaction and heightened volatility," said Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank. "Second, it's the US jobs report that same day, and last year demonstrated that even a modest downside surprise can cause a big selloff, if investors are already jittery," added Allen. Markets had fallen nearly 3% on the week ending 2nd August 2024 after data showed that far fewer jobs were created than expected, while unemployment had risen the most in nearly three years. "Third, long-end bond yields are going into this period at higher levels today, meaning it would take less of a jump before we move into problematic territory that re-ignites fears around fiscal policy," Allen concluded. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday morning after President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs of 30% on the European Union and Mexico over the weekend.	CNBC	Trump's 50% Copper Tariff Announcement Roil Markets, Downstream Industries Brazil-U.S. Tough Tariff Talks Heat Up
Natural Gas News: Hot Weather Forecast Sets Bullish Tone for Futures This Week		Forecasts from NOAA, NatGasWeather, and major weather services show persistent heat across the South, Midwest, and Northeast, driving elevated Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) and intensifying gas-fired power burn. Front-month Henry Hub futures settled at $3.314 on July 11, with solid support near $3.30. Key resistance stands at $3.640 (52-week SMA), and if that breaks, bulls may target $3.749-June's swing high. The current heat pattern and slower injections offer a path for that level to be tested if weekly fundamentals hold.	FX Empire	U.S. LNG Activity Increases as Maintenance Subsides
China's Economy Gets Surprise Lift from Trump's Trade War		Chinese exports surged in June, with imports also rebounding in a surprise boost for the economy as the tariff deadline with the U.S. looms. According to data released by the country's customs authorities on Monday, China's trade surplus grew to $114.8 billion in June, up from $103.2 billion in May and $98.94 a year ago. This surpassed forecasts of $109 billion. Exports rose by 5.8 percent, accelerating from 4.8 percent in May and also exceeding previous estimates, while imports edged up by 1.1 percent, marking a recovery from the 3.4 percent decline seen the month prior.	Newsweek	U.K. Goes Big on Solar and Floating Wind
The Shadow Economy of Critical Mineral Exports		Chinese traders are actively circumventing China's ban on critical mineral exports to the U.S. by rerouting shipments through third countries such as Mexico and Thailand. Despite the ban, U.S. imports of antimony, gallium, and germanium are on track to equal or exceed pre-ban levels, often at higher prices, due to these re-routing methods and mislabeling of goods. The illicit trade continues due to significant profit incentives, even as Chinese authorities crack down on domestic lawbreakers and third-country traders face scrutiny.	OilPrice	AECOM Expands Role in Terminal, Data Center, Other Key Markets DOE's Grid-Reliability Report Forecasts Dire Shortfalls Under Existing System
Week 07/07/25 - 07/14/25		It's a world rife with uncertainty as one wonders if the U.S. will indeed "drop the hammer" on Russia in regard to sanctions. This as the U.S. threatens 30% Tariffs on both the EU and Mexico, 35% on Canada, and 50% on Brazil. So where exactly are global economics actually headed as we make our way to the new U.S. Tariff deadline of Aug. 1? All of this concerning economic uncertainty is unfolding as it seems the Israel-Gaza ceasefire is on the brink with Houthis ramping up their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Though, Mr. Oil Market is seemingly unbothered and unfazed by any of these geoeconomical/geopolitical factors as oil markets touch three-week highs. Will this week provide any more clarity, or will the outlook remain cloudy as we wait for "signs of certainty" on U.S. trade deals, U.S. sanctions on Russia, and a possible ceasefire in the Middle East...?
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.