Canadian Oil Producers Upbeat on 2026

Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Canadian energy companies Cenovus and Suncor both said they anticipated production gains in 2026. This comes as Canadian leaders push for exports outside of North America.

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Production Gains Coming

With a low-end break-even price for drillers, below US$50 per barrel in some cases, Canadian energy companies expressed optimism for 2026, with both Cenovus Energy (Calgary, Alberta) and Suncor Energy (Calgary) pointing to year-on-year production expansions.

The Canadian economy is struggling under the burden of tariffs. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada opted to keep its lending rates stable, adding the economy was starting to show signs of recovery. Unemployment improved from a low of about 7.1% to 6.5% in November.

"Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued," the bank said.

On Thursday, however, major energy companies expressed optimism about the future, even amid the lingering pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies. Jon McKenzie, the president and chief executive officer at Cenovus, said he expected upstream production to be as high as 985,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), some 4% above the 2025 average.

"Our portfolio presents tremendous opportunities that we will continue to grow and develop, while balancing debt reduction with shareholder returns and maintaining a resolute focus on controlling costs," McKenzie said.

McKenzie pointed to Foster Creek, West White Rose and Christina Lake North as sources of growth for next year.

Of those, the Christina Lake facility, acquired through the recent tie-up with MEG Resources (Calgary), is the largest, with 288,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) in peak bitumen output.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database can learn more about these projects--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from lists of detailed plant profiles and project reports.

The company said it plans to invest nearly US$3 billion next year, with the bulk targeting oil sands operations. The company added that it expected to see first oil from the West White Rose facility over the Jeanne d'Arc Basin in the Atlantic Ocean by the second quarter of next year.

Cenovus has emerged as one of the largest energy companies in Canada after acquiring rival MEG Resources in a US$5.7 billion deal earlier this year. In the third quarter, it set a record for production at 832,900 Boe/d and posted net income that was more than 50% above year-ago levels.

By the Numbers

• 870,000 BBL/d a Q3 record for Suncor
• 985,000 BOE/d expected from Cenovus next year
• 6.5% unemployment a decline for Canada

Suncor Just as Optimistic

Not to be outdone, Suncor said its production next year is expected to be as high as 870,000 BBL/d next year, more than 10% higher than recent levels.

"Underpinned by resilient cash flow from our increasingly predictable and ratable operational results, we remain focused on delivering superior shareholder value in 2026 and beyond," said Rich Kruger, the company's president and chief executive officer.

The company pointed to many of the same facilities as did Cenovus, namely West White Rose. And like Cenovus, Suncor said it achieved record production in the third quarter of 870,000 BBL/d, some 41,000 BBL/d higher than the third quarter of last year. Net earnings, however, were 15% below year-ago levels.

The boost in production comes as Canadian leaders work to expand non-U.S. trade to buffer the economy against Trump's tariff policies. An expansion of perhaps 1 million BBL/d to the existing Trans Mountain crude oil pipeline to Alberta could support trade through exports to Asian economies.

On Thursday, the Canadian Energy Regulator penalized the pipeline operator for failing to implement mandated environmental protection measures on four separate occasions this year.

Key Takeaways

• Trade pressures are no deterrent to Canadian energy optimism.
• The nation's central bank kept lending rates unchanged.
• More barrels could support non-U.S. trade efforts.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).