IEA: Global Coal Use Up Slightly in 2025, But Declines Seen to 2030

Written by John Egan for IIR News (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Global use of all types of coal was expected to go up a bit in 2025, slightly exceeding last year's record usage, the IEA said in a new report, but it still expects coal use to fall gradually for the rest of this decade.

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Global Supply and Demand

Global demand for all forms of coal in 2025 is expected to rise slightly from 2024's record, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Paris, France), though the agency cautioned that the trajectory of the world's coal markets will be driven by a number of variables, including weather, fuel prices and policy decisions by national governments.

In "Coal 2025: Analysis and Forecasts to 2030," released December 17, the energy agency estimated global 2025 demand for all forms of coal will rise slightly, to about 8.845 billion tons from last year's 8.805 billion tons. However, the agency said that 2025 may represent coal's high-water mark: it projected worldwide use of all forms of coal will drop by about 0.6% per year over the 2025-2030 period, ending at 8.579 billion tons in 2030. The agency cautioned that many factors could affect future demand for and production of coal, including weather, the prices of fuels and policy decisions by national governments.

Click on the image at right to see global coal consumption since 2000, with projections to 2030.

Specifically, the agency noted the expectation that renewable electric generation will continue to rise dramatically for the remainder of the 2020s. The IEA also noted the planned expansion of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade and the resurgence of nuclear power in the out years as factors that may squeeze thermal coal's role in electricity production around the world.

"Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030," said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

"That said," he continued, "there are many uncertainties affecting the outlook for coal, most notably in China, where developments--from economic growth and policy choices to energy market dynamics and weather--will continue to have an outsize influence on the global picture. More broadly, trends in electricity demand growth and the integration of renewables worldwide could impact coal's trajectory."

Click on the image at right to see global coal production since 2000, with projections to 2030.

China Supply and Demand

China was the world's largest producer and consumer of coal in 2024, using and producing more than all the other nations of the world combined, the IEA said in its annual report. That status is not expected to change in 2025 or for the remainder of the decade.

China's usage of all types of coal--thermal, metallurgical and lignite--in 2025 is estimated to be roughly flat with last year's total of 4.852 billion tons. Most of that, about 85%, will be thermal coal or lignite, used mainly for power production, but with some usage by non-power industries. By 2030, the report projected, China's use of coal will decline to about 4.772 billion tons, a compound annual decline rate of about -0.7%.

That nation's use of metallurgical (met) coal is expected to decline more rapidly, at about 2.2% per year over the 2025-2030 period, ending 2030 at approximately 665 million tons, down from roughly 742 million tons in 2025.

The report projected China's production of all forms of coal will rise slightly in 2025 before falling gradually over the balance of the decade. Production was about 4.666 million tons in 2024, the agency said, adding that 2025 production is to rise about 0.8%, to 4.730 million tons, before falling to 4.439 million tons in 2030.

U.S. Supply and Demand

One of the surprises in the IEA report is that the U.S. is anticipated to increase its use of thermal coal about 10.3% in 2025, to an estimated 396 million tons from 369 million tons in 2024. But for the rest of this decade, thermal coal usage is projected to decline approximately 6.1% per year, to 289 million tons in 2030.

The agency noted that the U.S. "policy environment has shifted in favor of coal in the near term. Recent executive actions have reaffirmed coal's role in national energy security, directing agencies to accelerate permitting and reduce regulatory barriers, while the Department of the Interior (DOI) has expanded leasing opportunities on federal lands. These measures complement the joint U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Environmental Protection Agency and DOI $625 million program to modernize existing coal plants and reopen shuttered capacity, alongside the release of additional acreage for new leasing."

The report noted that Basin Electric Power Cooperative (Bismarck, North Dakota) has received funds to study the feasibility of building a new coal-fired power plant in the United States, which would be the first new plant in more than a decade.

The report noted that planned retirements of coal-fired generators in the U.S. "slowed markedly" in 2025, mainly due to the Trump administration's full-throated support for coal. In last year's coal report, the agency projected about 15 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity would be retired in the U.S. this year. But more recent projections show about 6.2 GW of planned retirements slated for this year, of which less than 2.5 GW have been retired through September. Nevertheless, the report added, coal-fired electric capacity is forecast to decline from 172 GW as of July 2025 to a level of 153 GW in 2030.

U.S. production of all forms of coal is projected to increase about 2.7% this year compared to 2024, to about 473 million tons from 461 million tons. But, for the remainder of this decade, production is projected to fall about 4% per year, ending 2030 at roughly 386 million tons. Most coal production, about 86%, in the U.S. is thermal coal or lignite.

Unlike thermal coal and lignite production, domestic use of metallurgical coal, used for steelmaking, is expected to stay flat at about 14 million tons per year through 2030.

Key Takeaways

• Global consumption of all forms of coal is anticipated to rise about 0.5% this year, to a new record of 8.85 billion tons, before falling steadily to 2030, the IEA said.
• China, the world's largest producer and consumer of all forms of coal, is expected to record flat demand with 2024 levels, but fall about 0.7% per year to 2030.
• In the United States, higher natural gas prices and policy measures that slowed coal plant retirements ended up boosting thermal coal consumption this year, which had been on a downward trajectory for the previous 15 years.

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