U.S. Natural Gas Rebounding Post-Fern

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Cold winter weather caused widespread curtailments across the U.S. natural gas sector. The situation was returning to normal by the end of the week, with no long-lasting damage done.

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Gas Production up nearly 10% Since Sunday

The supply-and-demand equation in the U.S. natural gas sector started returning to normal by Thursday after Winter Storm Fern nearly idled the sector during the weekend, data show.

IIR Energy, in its NATGAS Report for Thursday, showed U.S. natural gas production was up 1 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from the prior day to reach 103.5 Bcf. IIR Energy's production estimate from Sunday was around 94.58 Bcf.

Fern brought arctic air and heavy snows to most of the states east of the Mississippi River, with parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas struggling under abnormal temperatures. For more on that, see January 27, 2026, article - Winter Storm Fern Poses Nationwide Energy Test.

IIR Energy confirmed at least six power plants were knocked offline briefly amid the storm, the largest of which was the 755-megawatt (MW) Deptford Power Station in New Jersey. Subscribers with access to the Breaking Energy News (BEN) feature from IIR Energy Intelligence can read the alert on plant outages.

On the consumption side, levels dropped by 2 Bcf from Wednesday's levels to reach 123.3 Bcf by Thursday morning, with most of the decrease coming from the recovering power sector. Demand this week was as high as 132 Bcf amid the extreme cold.

Temperatures, meanwhile, are recovering. It was below freezing along the Gulf Coast of Texas earlier this week, though Galveston was expecting highs in the mid-60s Fahrenheit on Thursday. Elsewhere, Canadian imports, which likely peaked this week, were moving closer to the historic average of about 6.5 Bcf per day (Bcf/d).

All that likely cleared out room for more feedstock for the export terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) along the Gulf Coast. The Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana, operated by Venture Global, has a design capacity for 4.2 Bcf/d in feedstock, though levels dropped to 2.6 Bcf during the weekend.

"Total LNG feed gas volumes have returned to pre-storm levels at 18.6 Bcf/d," Thursday's NATGAS Report report added.

By the Numbers

• 10% rebound is gas production so far
• 18.6 Bcf/d in LNG feed gas

That's higher than the federal estimate for the year at around 16 Bcf/d, supporting efforts from U.S. President Donald Trump to enhance U.S. energy dominance.

Too Much of a Good Thing?

The U.S. emerged as the world leader in LNG exports near the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. It's since helped ensure energy security in a European market looking to sideline Russian supplies, which were hampered by Western-backed sanctions.

That's led to growing concerns about a global glut that could deter investments by the end of the decade. On Tuesday, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), whose mission is to "is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy," warned that U.S. gas exports were upsetting the domestic market. The organization is a frequent critic of the fossil fuels sector.

"The United States' prolific exporting of LNG has led to higher and more volatile gas prices for consumers," said Clark Williams-Derry, IEEFA's energy finance expert.

The IEEFA said it expects the LNG export capacity from all of North America to nearly double by 2030, suggesting projects proposed for start dates beyond that could see a lack of interest.

That would not bode well for either U.S. or Canadian ambitions to tap into Asian markets, the No. 2 destination for global LNG deliveries, behind Europe.

Canada has a head start, however, with the debut delivery in 2025 of cargo from the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, British Columbia. At its peak, it could have a nameplate capacity of 14 million metric tons per annum (MTPA).

Another facility in British Columbia, Woodfibre, which is expected to begin commercial operations by 2027, would be smaller at 2.1 MPTA, though it could be among the first net-zero facilities of its kind in the world.

Subscribers to IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report.

For the U.S., the Alaska LNG facility, led by Glenfarne, will roll out in phases. The first section would include a pipeline slated to address domestic demand by 2029. The second phase would include the liquefaction units on Alaska's coast.

Alaska LNG is currently assessed by IIR as a low-probability project. GMI subscribers can view the project report here.

Key Takeaways

• Both domestic natural gas volumes and LNG exports on the rise.
• A group advocating for renewable energy warns of an LNG glut.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).