U.S. Gas Sector Holding Up

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR Energy Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Mother Nature has thrown a lot at North America so far this year, but the natural gas sector is holding up with only a few issues. Meanwhile, this year could be the start of the next phase of LNG growth.

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Tested, but Determined U.S. Natural Gas Sector

With the U.S. natural gas sector socked by Winter Storm Fern, and with another clipper system moving into the Great Lakes, data show supplies are keeping up with demand.

U.S. natural gas production dropped to as low as 94.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) last week amid sub-freezing temperatures that likely froze off wellheads and led to pipeline issues. Levels were closer to 105 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) last week, and they had recovered even more during the first full week of February.

By Thursday, IIR Energy in its NATGAS Today report found that gas production reached 108 Bcf, though home-heating demands were still a strain on the industry. That could be put to the test this weekend as an Alberta Clipper system descends on Great Lakes states, some of which already have seen 3 feet of snow this year.

Subscribers have access to a Breaking Energy News feature on weather-related events.

The amount of natural gas running to export terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) was somewhat suppressed because of unspecified issues at the Elba Island and Freeport terminals, but at about 18.5 Bcf/d so far in February, levels are above the 16 Bcf/d average expected by the federal government.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project and Plant databases can learn more about U.S. LNG projects--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from this comprehensive list.

The U.S. is the world leader in exports of LNG, a position that's helped ensure energy security for Western allies since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine saw legacy volumes from Russia sidelined by sanctions.

Since returning to the White House for a second, non-consecutive term, President Donald Trump has singled out LNG as part of his strategy of energy dominance, pursuing additional projects from Alaska to the Gulf Coast.

By the Numbers

• $24.4 billion worth of LNG projects in Qatar
• 60% of the construction completed for Canada's Woodfibre LNG
• 18.5 Bcf/d in U.S. LNG feedgas above federal estimates

The Next Wave for LNG is Here

On Wednesday, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) said this year starts "the real beginning of the LNG wave." Globally, year-over-year growth in export capacity is expected to be twice as high as last year.

While the U.S. is the clear leader in export capacity, OIES found it was Canada that was leading the race in terms of projects ramping up. The LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, British Columbia, delivered its inaugural cargo last year and another facility, Woodfibre, is nearly 60% completed.

Combined, the two facilities would combine for a little more than 16 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) in exports of gas in liquid form, though Woodfibre won't be up and running until next year.

Subscribers can review project specifics for LNG-related projects in Canada.

The U.S. Gulf Coast is second in the profile from OIES, with a handful of new LNG export facilities in the works. By next year, Canada falls to the No. 8 position, with Qatar taking the No. 1 spot in terms of project ramp-ups.

IIR Energy finds six LNG projects in the construction phase in Qatar, with a combined investment value of $24.4 billion. Much of the work is centered on the North Field.

Subscribers can see a list of projects in Qatar.

On the demand side, OIES finds the Asian economies will have a strong appetite for LNG through next year, with China leading the way. But it's the economies of East Asia that are leading the way, with Indonesia and Thailand expecting the largest increase in demand.

Trade disputes, meanwhile, could upend some of the momentum for U.S. energy dominance, particularly given the demand pull from the Pacific economies. Shipping from the west coast of North America is less expensive than Gulf Coast deliveries, and there it's Canada that has the edge.

On Wednesday, former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that the U.S. has become a "hostile" superpower, with Trump posing a "serious challenge" to Canada that requires a response.

Since taking office Trump has upended the historically friendly relationship with Canada, leading Canada to push to expand non-U.S. exports. Racing against Canada, Trump singled out an LNG project in Alaska as part of his strategy of energy dominance, though the facility did not make the cut in the OIES profile for 2026.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. natural gas sector surviving Mother Nature
• This could be the year of major developments in LNG, OIES says
• Canada, Qatar emerging LNG players

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).