As Global Refining Slows, Producers Look to Petrochemicals

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Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Global refining capacity growth is slowing along with demand, which is leading to more refineries adopting petrochemical units in place of gasoline production.

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Global Demand, Capacity Hit the Brakes

The global Petroleum Refining Industry has seen a steady decline in capacity additions and fuel demand in the past few years. But Hillary Stevenson, Vice President for Energy Intelligence for Industrial Info, told attendees at a recent industry-oriented presentation that demand remains strong in many areas, particularly the Eastern Hemisphere. Industrial Info is tracking more than $383.7 billion worth of active and proposed capital-spending projects at refineries globally, as well as more than $21.6 billion worth of maintenance-related projects.

Stevenson noted that the global refining capacity growth is slowing from the 2022-24 pace, when refining capacity rose about 1 million barrels per day (BBL/d) each year, to a projected 620,000 BBL/d growth rate on average for 2025 through 2027.

Click on the image at right for a chart detailing historical and projected growth in global refining capacity and fuel demand, from 2021 through 2030.

She also stressed that while a significantly larger amount of refining capacity is currently slated to be brought online from 2028 through 2030, many of these projects could be delayed or cancelled, because the outlook for global demand is highly uncertain.

The bulk of spending on new-site construction, unit additions and capacity expansions in the 2025-27 period is in Asia and the Middle East, while North American refineries are expected to spend more on in-plant maintenance than any other region.

Stevenson pointed to IIR Energy's Refinery Capacity Insights tool, which allows subscribers to visualize refinery capacities, outages and trends over time for deeper analysis. The feature analyzes monthly refinery data from 2015 through 2035, to analyze refining availability, including unit changes, additions, closures and offline events. For more information, see IIR Energy's EnergyLive Tools.

Following a relatively low $30 billion spent in 2024, the global refining industry is expected to see about $55 billion of spending in 2025. Further growth might be seen in 2026 and 2027, with as much as $135 billion and $125 billion, respectively--but, as much of the spending is related to capacity expansions, this depends on movement in global demand.

Petrochemical-unit integrations at refineries--especially in Europe and the Middle East--represent a significant share of the global spending on additions and expansions, as many facilities switch from gasoline to petrochemical production, Stevenson said.

Click on the image at right for a chart detailing refinery projects by global region and type, including a breakout graph for ESG projects.

For more information on these trends in the global Petroleum Refining Industry, see October 9, 2025, article - New Global Refining Capacity and Spending Shifts East .

By the Numbers

• 620,000 barrels per day: Projected global refining capacity growth rate in 2025-27
• 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day: Projected liquid fuel demand growth rate
• $55 billion: Projected spending at global refineries for full-year 2025

Keeping Tabs on Maintenance

Among the most frequent questions posed to Industrial Info's Petroleum Refining researchers concern planned and unplanned outages. Stevenson pointed to an invaluable tool for this corner of the market: IIR Energy's R180 Offline Reports, which details the outage outlook for major units during the next 180 days, grouped by trading region and unit type; and the IIR/DOE Weekly Refinery Report, which compares data from the current week with historical refinery utilization and offline event patterns to identify deviations, anomalies or emerging constraints for the U.S. market.

For more information on these features, users can connect with an expert on IIR Energy's Industry Reports site.

The R180 report "delivers to your inbox every night, is customized to your coverage and your geography. We have 700 different versions of it, because we have 700 flavors of what people are buying across the refining industry." Recent updates have made the feature more user-friendly, and it allows users to link directly to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Offline Event Database and IIR Energy's EnergyLive Tools.

The IIR/DOE Weekly Refinery Report features " quick market factoids every week. So, if you want to keep up with market trends and all the hot gossip on the U.S. refining market, I urge you to check out that weekly email."

Subscribers can click here for a full list of reports for active and proposed capital-spending projects at refineries globally and click here for a full list of reports for maintenance-related projects.

Key Takeaways

• Global refining capacity growth is slowing along with demand.
• Petrochemical-unit integrations are becoming more commonplace at refineries.
• Industrial Info offers several tools that allow users to track capital-spending trends and maintenance-related projects at refineries across the globe.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).