Canadian Gas Exports to U.S. Declining

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Canadian gas exports to the United States averaged 9 billion cubic feet per day in January 2025. As of Friday, that level was closer to 5.4 billion cubic feet.

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Canadian Energy Export Values Slump

The amount of natural gas flowing into the United States from Canada slumped recently, with federal Canadian data showing the value in energy exports in general is on the decline.

IIR Energy in its NATGAS Today report from Friday found net Canadian natural gas imports were at 5.44 billion cubic feet. Net imports averaged 6.52 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in December, and 9 Bcf/d for last January.

The United States leads globally in natural gas production, though output levels are fluid. The Canadian government maintains that gas exports to the U.S. economy address those fluctuations.

Federal U.S. data, meanwhile, show total dry natural gas production is on pace to average 109.1 Bcf/d this year, marking a 1.3% increase from 2025 should early-year forecasts prove accurate. That compares with a 4.3% annual increase in production from 2024 levels.

From Canada, data show energy trade is on the decline. Natural gas trade showed a net increase in value to October, though the overall sector is on its back foot. Data from Statistics Canada show the value in total energy trade in October was down 12.4% year-on-year.

Click on the image at right from Statistics Canada detailing Canada's net value of energy exports in October.

For just its heavy crude oil, data show the net value of exports dropped year-on-year by nearly 19%. Canada is the largest exporter of crude oil to the U.S. economy by far, with the average of 4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) representing about 60% of total foreign deliveries.

No explanation for the decline was offered by Statistics Canada. National commodity prices tend to be discounted to U.S. and global benchmarks, though production trends are holding up and last year's wildfire season was not prohibitive to major energy operations in the country.

The Canadian-U.S. Split

Canada produces the heavy type of crude oil favored by many U.S. refineries, and some news outlets have suggested that could face competition from U.S. President Donald Trump's oil-focused agenda in Venezuela. It's highly unlikely, however, that Venezuelan exports will rival Canada's anytime soon given the South American nation is producing less than 1 million BBL/d. Production peaks from the 1970s are just shy of what Canada currently sends to the U.S. economy.

All that comes as friendly bilateral relations between countries with the longest shared border and highly-integrated economies are in danger from Trump's geopolitical and economic agendas. Facing tariff pressure from the United States, its largest trading partner, Canada is working to cut U.S. trade in half over the course of the next 10 years.

Recently, the provincial government of Alberta launched a new webpage that it says serves as an information hub for the newly-proposed Northwest Coast Oil Pipeline, which would supplement the existing Trans Mountain network, the only midstream infrastructure capable of delivering Canadian crude outside of North America.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, meanwhile, has designated a handful of projects, from liquified natural gas to modular nuclear reactors, as priorities for his trade diversification agenda. Elsewhere, Carney lent his voice to the chorus of NATO allies critical of Trump's agenda in Venezuela.

Carney on Thursday announced plans for his first-ever visit to Qatar as prime minister as part of a regional trade tour to drum up new opportunities. He'll head later to Switzerland for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

By the Numbers

• 12.4% decline in value of Canadian energy exports year-over-year
• 4 million BBL/d sent to the U.S. economy
• 10 years for Canada to cut U.S. trade in half

Key Takeaways

• Value of Canadian energy exports declining.
• The nation is working to insulate itself from the United States.
• Canada is a net exporter of gas to the U.S. economy.

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About IIR News
IIR News is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resource's Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).

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