Duke Energy Boosts Five-Year Capex to $103 Billion

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Written by Danny Levin, Deputy Editor for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Duke Energy increased its five-year capital plan 18% to $103 billion. Industrial Info is tracking $38 billion worth of active and proposed projects from the company, with its pipeline being driven by data center demand.

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Duke Energy's Capital Strategy Amid Data Center Demand

Duke Energy boosted its five-year (2026-2030) capital spending plan 18% to $103 billion, with about 65% of the spend attributed to grid infrastructure and increasing power generation, according to the recent fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings presentation, the company said on Tuesday. Investment in the two segments will continue well into 2035, accounting for a combined 70% through that year.

"Our earnings profile is underpinned by a $6 billion increase in our five-year capital plan to $103 billion," Chief Executive Officer Harry Sideris said in the earnings-related conference call. "Our capital plan will drive 9.6% earnings-based growth [through 2030] and is the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments that strengthen the system and serve increasing load."

The company indicated data center demand is driving the company's project pipeline, with about 4.5 gigawatts (GW) worth of data center electric service agreements (ESA) in place--an increase of 1.5 GW since the third-quarter earnings results reported on November 7.

Sideris echoed that sentiment in the call: "The ESAs that we have signed, all of those are under construction. They are turning dirt. They have zoning in hand. We do not anticipate any of those backing out. And then we have a robust pipeline that we continue to work."

Chief Financial Officer Brian Savoy said the 4.5 GW will start coming online in late 2027 and ramp up the following year, pointing to 2028 "as an inflection point in earnings." The company's "late stage" data center pipeline totals 9 GW. "You should expect new announcements over the course of 2026 as we progress the pipeline in a very expedient manner."

Looking forward, Sideris said there's "incredible momentum" entering 2026. Armed with its capital plan, a balance sheet prepared for growth and contracted demand from AI and advanced manufacturing, Duke is "well-positioned to deliver 5% to 7% EPS [earnings per share] growth through 2030."

The company reported full-year 2025 net income of $4.96 billion, up from $4.52 billion in 2024. "Higher full-year 2025 adjusted results were primarily driven by recovery of growing infrastructure investments to serve customers and growth in our service territories," Duke said in the earnings press release. "These items were partially offset by higher O&M [operations & maintenance], interest expense, property taxes and depreciation on a growing asset base."

Duke's Power Generation Buildout

Duke continues to advance power generation across its service areas via its "all of the above" strategy, expecting to add about 14 GW of capacity by 2031.

Its electric utilities serve 8.4 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky; its natural gas utilities serve 1.7 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Ohio and Kentucky.

"With over $1 billion of capital deployed every single month," Sideris said, the company is uniquely positioned to reach that goal.

The presentation states uprate projects through 2031 will add about 670 megawatts (MW) of capacity to gas-fired units, about 250 MW to nuclear units and about 85 MW to hydropower units.

Duke also is executing the construction of its gas-fired fleet, and a major project in the Carolinas is on track to kick off next year and wrap up in 2029: two simple-cycle combustion-turbine units at the Marshall Energy Complex in Catawba County, North Carolina. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can read the project report.

For more information on the company's future plans in the Carolinas, see October 2, 2025, article - Duke Looks to Nuclear, Gas, Solar, Storage for Carolinas' Long-Term Resource Plan.

In other forms of low-carbon generation, Duke expects to accelerate battery-storage development with about 4.5 GW of capacity online by 2031.

Sideris also said the company continues to evaluate the potential for nuclear generation, "maintaining optionality for future development," but that could come at a slower pace than other sources.

One example is the December submission of an early site permit for a potential small modular reactor (SMR) at the Belews Creek site in North Carolina. Subscribers can view the project report. For more information, see December 31, 2025, article - Duke Submits Early Site Permit Application for North Carolina Nuclear Unit.

"We are taking a disciplined approach to new nuclear, sharing our operational expertise and advancing licensing activities while reducing supply chain risks and allowing technologies to mature. We also continue to seek solutions that mitigate financial risk for customers and investors before we make a decision to move forward with any new nuclear development."

Subscribers can view a full list of active and proposed projects from Duke Energy.

Duke Energy indicated about 20% of the $103 billion, five-year (2026-2030) capital plan is attributed to the development of gas-fired units capable of co-firing hydrogen or running on up to 100% hydrogen. Although Industrial Info is not tracking any such projects actively under construction, last month Duke Energy Florida unveiled a demonstration project in which an end-to-end system produces, stores and combusts up to 100% green hydrogen to be deployed to an existing combustion turbine at times of high demand. Subscribers can read related project information.

Key Takeaways

• Duke Energy projects $103 billion in capital investment through 2030.
• The company highlighted expansions of its gas-fired fleet and low-carbon generation.
• Data center demand is a major driving force for expanding power generation.
• New nuclear development is being evaluated.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resource's Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).