EIA Forecast: 2024 U.S. Hydropower Generation to Reach Lowest Level Since 2001

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast that hydropower generation in the U.S., which is buoyed by capacity in the Pacific Northwest, specifically Washington, could reach its lowest level since 2001.

In addition, the EIA projects the generation in 2024 will be 13% less than the 10-year average. "Extreme and exceptional drought conditions have been affecting different parts of the United States, especially the Pacific Northwest, which is home to most U.S. hydropower capacity," the agency said in a summary.

According to the agency's U.S. Drought Monitor, at the end of the September, 72.6% of the continental United States was experiencing "dryer-than-normal to exceptional" drought conditions; by the end of October, this increased to 87.2%.

Washington generated more hydropower than any other state in 2023, according to the EIA, accounting for 25% of the nation's total utility-scale hydropower generation.

As early as April, the Washington State Department of Ecology declared most counties in the state under drought. The department takes this step when water supply in the state is less than 75% of normal.

The EIA points to a specific source in the Pacific Northwest impacted by this year's droughts: the Columbia River, the fourth-largest river in the U.S. by volume. Its watershed, the Columbia River Basin, covers parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana and is home to some of the largest hydropower dams in the country. That includes the two largest hydropower producing dams in the U.S., both of which are in Washington: Grand Coulee, with a net summer capacity of 6.7 gigawatts (GW), and Chief Joseph with 2.4 GW of capacity, according to the EIA.

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts generation for electricity market regions instead of geographical regions. The agency expects hydropower generation in the Northwest electricity region, which includes the Columbia River Basin and parts of other Rocky Mountain states, to total 101.8 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024--a 23% drop from the 10-year average of 132.8 billion kWh and a 1% decrease from 2023.

But even with the projected drop in hydropower generation, Industrial Info is tracking about $2 billion worth of related projects under construction in the U.S.--about half of which is attributed to updating existing hydro facilities in Washington. Hydropower projects often take years to complete. Subscribers to the Power Project Database can click here for a full list.

Among the projects is the rewinding of 16 generating units at Chief Joseph. According to the Bonneville Power Administration, a federal agency that markets the power produced at the dam, the units were last rewound about 35 years ago and have reached their end of life. The project kicked off in 2022 and is expected to wrap up in 2030. Subscribers can click here to read the project report.

Industrial Info is tracking projects at other sources on the Columbia River, including three efforts underway at the Priest Rapids Hydro Power Station (operated by the Grant County Public Utility District.) The projects entail replacing the existing governor controls on all 10 of the units, each rated at 95.5 megawatts, as well as replacing their turbines and generators. After kicking off in 2016, all three projects are expected to wrap up by mid-2027. Subscribers can click here to see the related project reports.

Also underway are two projects at the 2.5-GW Robert H. Moses Hydro Station in New York (operated by the New York Power Authority), which in 2022, according to the EIA, trailed only Washington and Oregon in terms of hydropower production. Work at the plant includes modernizing Unit 6, which is expected to wrap up around the end of the year, as well as upgrades that involve installing automation systems for control facilities and replacing outdated mechanical components, among other work. Subscribers can read more information on the unit-modernization and upgrade projects.

Industrial Info is tracking 769 operating hydropower facilities in the U.S. Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Power Plant Database can click here for a list of plant profiles.

Click here for a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article, and click here for a full list of related plant profiles.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).