EIA Triples U.S. Projected Natural Gas-Fired Power Generation Growth Through 2030

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Written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Data centers and the Trump administration's rollbacks of support for green energy have increased the projected growth of natural gas-fired power generation from 23 MW to 66 MW.

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Gas-Fired Power Generation on the Rise

What a difference a year makes in tracking natural gas-fired power generation growth. In its June 25 Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) compiled data showing growth of 66 megawatts (MW) in gas-fired power generation through 2030. That's nearly three times the 23-MW growth forecasted by the agency in its 2025 inventory.

According to an EIA spokesperson, these numbers come "from the plans that owners and operators of generators report to us rather than a projection or forecast that our analysts put together."

Industrial Info Resources is tracking 144 natural gas-fired power generation projects planned for completion by 2030, with a total investment value of nearly $136 billion. The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database offers detailed reports on each of these projects.

Since taking office in January of 2025, the Trump administration has cancelled or otherwise denied about $34 billion in clean energy subsidies. That number includes the cancellation of about 10 gigawatts (GW) of solar, 3.75 GW of wind and 9 GW of battery storage, said Britt Burt, IIR senior vice president for the Global Electric Power Industry.

Much of the $34 billion in cancelled or denied funding came in the Trump administration's 2026 budget announcement.

Burt said, "There have been clean energy loans and grants that have been canceled, cuts to carbon capture programs and the administration has paid $2.7 billion to developers to halt offshore wind projects."

By the Numbers

• 23 to 66: Change in MW in gas-fired generation projects tracked by the EIA from 2025 to 2026
• 144: Number of such projects tracked by Industrial Info Resources

The EIA estimated that U.S. power demand will increase by 1.8% year-over-year in 2026 and by about 3% in 2027.

According to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2026, published in April, "demand has increased by 2.1% per year, on average, over the last five years. We project electricity consumption will continue growing through 2050 at a rate of 0.9% to 1.6%, with data center server energy use a major factor."

Even with Output Growth, Natural Gas Share Remains Steady

This growth is expected to lead to a record for natural gas consumption by the power generation sector in 2027. Said the EIA, "We expect U.S. natural gas consumption in the electric power sector will set a record next year, driven largely by rising overall electricity demand, the expansion of the natural gas generating fleet, and relatively low natural gas prices."

Yet, even with the significant increase in numbers, the EIA said it expects the share of natural gas in the power market to remain steady, at 40%, in 2027, the latest year charted. In 2024 its share was 42%, dropping to 40% for 2025 and 2026.

By comparison, coal's percentage was 16% in 2024, 17% in 2025, then down to 15% for both 2026 and 2027. Solar continues to rise steadily, with 5%, 7%, 8%, and 9% across those years. Nuclear energy's share was 19% in 2024, and 18% from 2025 to 2027.

Top States in Growth

As might be expected, Texas leads in projected gas-fired generation growth over the last five years (2021-2025), adding an average of almost 674,000 megawatt-hours (MWh). Ohio is second with 479,000 MWh.

When accounting for the fact that several states have been greatly reducing their gas-fired generation over that time, the rapid overall growth is even more amazing.

One Example

Meta's Hyperion data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana, is a case in point. Hoping to avert public outcry over its massive power demand, Meta has agreed to pay the local utility, Entergy, for building gas-fired generation plants and for all the associated infrastructure.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking three related projects in Richland and Oachita parishes, with TIV of $2.81 billion and with a capacity of 1.8 GW. The projects were placed in northern Louisiana specifically because of its location in the midst of the gas-rich Haynesville Shale. This field, which straddles the Texas-Louisiana state line, is the second-most prolific producer of natural gas in the U.S., trailing only Appalachia's Marcellus/Utica plays.

Then There's Behind the Meter

Harder to track is the amount of natural gas to be used by data centers in behind-the-meter applications such as the Chevron-Microsoft venture in west Texas. For more on that, see June 29, 2026, article - Chevron Signs Behind-the-Meter Power Pack with Microsoft for West Texas Data Center.

And the total demand across other similar projects in gas-rich regions like the Permian, Haynesville and Appalachia will be significant but hard to track precisely.

Key Takeaways

• Abundant U.S. natural gas production, along with the Trump administration's cancellation of about $34 billion in funding and incentives for green energy, have pushed the power industry to return to natural gas for power generation.
• The EIA has tripled the amount of new gas-fired generation it sees coming online in the near future.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).