Keyera Eyes Long-Term Growth in Canada's Nat Gas, NGL Markets

Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Keyera sees growing opportunities in Canada's natural gas and NGL markets, and its capital-expenditure plans for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 reflect these developments.

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More Contracts, More Confidence

As the market for natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) heats up across Canada, Keyera Corporation (Calgary, Alberta) is rapidly developing its assets through large-scale expansions and acquisitions. With Asian markets on its growing list of customers, the company is locking up long-term contracts across its portfolio. Industrial Info is tracking US$2.5 billion worth of active and proposed projects from Keyera, more than half of which is attributed to natural gas-processing projects.

During the quarter, Keyera announced progress on two major projects at its KFS natural gas and NGL complex in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta: a debottlenecking of Train II, which is expected to raise the unit's capacity from 38,000 to 46,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) of propane, butane, ethane and condensate, and the proposed addition of Train III, which is designed to produce 47,000 BBL/d of the same products. Keyera said both projects now are underpinned by long-term take-or-pay arrangements.

"Keyera's existing and planned fractionation capacity, including the KFS Frac II debottleneck and KFS Frac III expansion, is now substantially all contracted," the company said in a quarterly earnings-related press release. "The current average contract life of seven years is expected to extend to 11 years in 2028, while average take-or-pay commitments are anticipated to increase from 70% to 80%."

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project and Plant databases can learn more about the Fort Saskatchewan developments--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from a plant profile and detailed reports on the Train II debottlenecking and the proposed addition of Train III.

Altogether, Keyera now expects its growth capital expenditures for full-year 2025 to range between C$220 million and C$240 million (US$156.68 million and US$170.92 million), down from its previous estimate of between C$275 million and C$300 million (US$195.85 million and US$213.66 million). The company attributed the decline to the deferral of certain expenditures to 2026, but "this shift in growth capital spend timing does not impact the expected in-service dates of Keyera's major projects."

For 2026, Keyera's growth capital expenditures are expected to range between C$400 million and C$475 million (US$284.87 million and US$338.3 million), primarily directed toward the KFS Train II debottleneck, the proposed KFS Train III and related projects. Maintenance capital expenditures are expected to range between C$130 million and C$150 million (US$92.59 million and US$106.83 million).

By the Numbers

• C$220 million to C$240 million: Keyera's new full-year capex estimate for 2025
• 11 years: The average contract life for Keyera's fractionation complex in Fort Saskatchewan, following completion of key projects
• 25,000 BBL/d: How much Keyera hopes to export from AltaGas' facilities on Canada's western coast

Boom in NGL Demand Spurs Deals, Expansions

Over the summer, Keyera announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire "substantially all" of Plains All American Pipeline LP's (Houston, Texas) Canadian NGL business, along with some U.S.-based assets, for C$5.15 billion (US$3.75 billion). The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, and it does not affect Plains' crude oil assets in Canada.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Plant Database can learn more about Plains' Canadian NGL assets from a list of related plant profiles.

Keyera also plans to add capacity at some of its existing NGL facilities. The company is seeking permits for an expansion at its Pipestone Shallow-Cut Sour Gas-Processing Plant in Beaverlodge, Alberta, which is designed to elevate the facility's total condensate-processing capacity from 27,000 to 60,000 BBL/d. Subscribers can learn more from a detailed plant profile and project report.

Keyera's large-scale capacity additions reflect its growing demand for NGL from both domestic and international customers. Earlier this year, the company reached an agreement with AltaGas Limited (Calgary) to export 25,000 BBL/d of NGL via AltaGas' export facilities on Canada's western coast, including to premium Asian markets, starting in 2028. For more information, see June 10, 2025, article - Keyera, AltaGas to Expand Canada's Energy Exports to Asia.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project and Plant databases can click here for a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article, and click here for a full list of related plant profiles.

Subscribers can click here for a full list of reports for active and proposed projects from Keyera.

Key Takeaways

• Keyera's acquisitions and large-scale expansions reflect its growing demand for NGL from both domestic and international customers.
• Its pending acquisition of Plains' Canadian holdings will broaden its portfolio substantially.
• The KFS Train II debottleneck, the proposed KFS Train III and related projects will absorb most of Keyera's 2026 capital investments.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).