Nearly 80 GW of Coal Plants Could be Targets of Fed's Must-Run Orders

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Written by Jesse Broehl, Assistant Editor-in-Chief, IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Orders are likely to continue through the remaining three years of the Trump administration unless legal challenges constrain the orders.

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Scale of the Must-Run Orders is Unprecedented

The Trump administration's must-run "emergency" orders that disallow the planned retirements of old coal-fired power plants are among the many controversial actions the administration has enacted in the power sector since taking over the presidency and leadership at federal agencies. The scale of the must-run orders is unprecedented and could alter the future for a vast number of power plants.

IIR Energy's power plant tracking shows there is around 78 gigawatts (GW) from 167 coal units at 81 plants with planned retirements over the next two decades. In most cases, the units are very old and no longer economical to operate.

The retirements are tentatively on track to peak in 2028 with more than 12 GW in that year alone. The amount is 3.1 GW annually if averaged over the two decades. See the accompanying chart and the full list of coal units. 

Grid Stability Concerns or Fuel Favoritism

Ostensibly, the reasoning behind the retirement prohibitions ordered via the Department of Energy (DOE) is for grid stability purposes. Higher energy demand due to data centers and long-running grid constraints are real challenges in many areas of U.S. power markets. However, most energy industry experts see a pattern of favoritism for coal in these orders beyond only an impartial concern for grid stability.

President Trump, his staff, and other allies have been explicit in public speeches and actions with targeted support for coal power plants while at the same time taking openly antagonistic actions against renewable energy, such as prohibiting development of new offshore wind plants and attempting to stop current ones under construction.

In all fairness, the previous Biden administration showed energy favoritism to renewable energy and often took actions against fossil fuels, for example halting new permitting for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. As the saying goes; turnabout is fair play. Although, the Biden administration did not use emergency orders to dictate down to the level of individual plant operations and retirement decisions for privately owned power plants.

Most energy experts believe that new must-run orders for power plants and 90-day extensions of existing orders are likely to continue through the remaining three years of the Trump administration's current term, unless legal challenges constrain the orders. The orders are likely to be applied to most coal units, and likely to any natural gas units-- although there are many fewer of those in the retirement lane.

Pushback is Mounting from Utilities Against the Must-Run Orders

There's been pushback, however, against the administration for its support for coal with these orders. In December, the DOE ordered the 446-megawatt (MW), coal-fired Unit 1 at the Craig Generation Station in Colorado not to retire at the end of the year, as the owners had planned. The owners--Xcel Energy, PacifiCorp, and Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association--filed legal motions asking the DOE to reconsider its order.

A similar situation exists in Michigan where Consumers Energy is pushing back against the forced life-extension of its J.H. Campbell coal-fired power plants; units 01 (265 MW), 02 (360 MW), and 03 (916 MW).

In these and most other cases, the plants are no longer economically sustainable in the energy marketplace to operate--regardless of political support. They are often very old plants and the required refurbishing needed to extend the life of the units outweighs the economics of the investment. 

Over 78 GW of Coal Units with Planned Retirement by 2045

Regardless of the politics, IIR Energy quantifies in the Key Takeaways below the scale of the power plants and capacity that is potentially impacted in the short and longer term. This analysis represents the total MW nameplate capacity of coal units operating in the U.S. and what year their tentative planned retirements are set for--even if those dates are now increasingly uncertain.

IIR Energy will continue to track this ongoing topic and report on individual plant orders, legal maneuvering, and other related news. Subscribers to IIR Energy can see details here of the full list of coal plants behind this story's accompanying charts. 

Key Takeaways

• The data charts show a total of around 78 GW heading to retirement from 2025 through 2044.
• The 78 GW is from approximately 167 coal units at 81 coal plants.
• Most are plants with one or two coal units and the entire plant will be decommissioned.
• Some others are plants where a coal unit or two may be decommissioned while a natural gas unit at the site continues operating. Some coal units are planning to be converted to run on natural gas.
• Year 2028 is the peak year for retirement with more than 12 GW planned to shutter.
• The amount is 3.1 GW annually if averaged over the two decades.
• At least 25 states have coal units planning retirement during this time period.
• The leading states in terms of total coal unit capacity with planned retirement are North Carolina, Indiana, Tennessee, Michigan, West Virginia, Utah, Texas, Pennsylvania.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).