Super Typhoon Bavi Remains Powerful Threat to Eastern China

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst, for IIR New Intelligence

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Summary

While gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days, Bavi is expected to remain a major typhoon through its passage near northern Taiwan. The cyclone's exceptionally large wind field will produce destructive winds, dangerous seas, torrential rainfall and subsequent coastal flooding well away from the center.

A Looming Threat

Typhoon Bavi remains one of the strongest tropical cyclones of the 2026 western North Pacific season, although it has weakened slightly from its peak intensity earlier this week. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 145 mph (230 kph) on Wednesday, 8 pm China Standard Time.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, Bavi is forecast to turn gradually northwest during the next 12 hours, as two subtropical ridges merge over the western Pacific. That steering pattern is forecast to direct the typhoon across the southern Ryukyu Islands before an expected landfall along China's eastern coast near Wenzhou on Saturday evening (local time).



Recent satellite imagery indicates Bavi is attempting to initiate another eyewall replacement cycle. This has resulted in a somewhat less organized inner core and a resulting slight decrease in peak intensity. Moderate northeasterly wind shear and occasional mid-level dry-air intrusions also are contributing to the weakening trend.

However, forecast conditions become somewhat more favorable during the next two days. As it moves over the East China Sea, Bavi is expected to encounter cooler ocean waters and declining ocean heat content near the promote additional weakening ahead of landfall.

Forecast confidence remains high through at least 72 hours, with most guidance maintaining good agreement on both the storm track and overall weakening trend.

Industrial and Energy Impacts

Although the exact landfall still could shift by more than 100 miles, the greatest industrial risk continues to focus on China's eastern coastal provinces, south of Shanghai. This region contains one of Asia's largest concentrations of refining, petrochemical, manufacturing, port, shipping and logistics infrastructure.

Even before landfall, Bavi's expansive circulation is expected to generate prolonged periods of hazardous marine conditions across the Philippine Sea, Taiwan Strait and East China Sea. Gale-force winds extend outward nearly 300 nautical miles from the center, increasing the likelihood of operational disruptions for offshore facilities, marine transportation, and coastal industrial operations well removed from the eye.

Northern Taiwan and the Yaeyama Islands, including Ishigaki, also remain at risk for heavy rainfall and regional flooding, damaging wind gusts, and transportation disruptions, despite the forecast keeping the storm's center offshore.

Maximum significant wave heights near the storm's core remain near 50 feet, creating hazardous conditions for commercial shipping throughout the western Pacific.

Air Traffic Impacts

Air travel across the western Pacific continues to face increasing disruption as airlines prepare for Bavi's approach.

Flexible travel policies remain in effect for portions of Taiwan, while additional schedule adjustments, route deviations and cancellations are likely across Japan, Taiwan, eastern China and portions of Southeast Asia as aircraft avoid the storm's expansive circulation.

Impacts to Date

Over the past weekend, Bavi delivered significant impacts across the Mariana Islands as one of the strongest typhoons to affect the region in recent years. The eye crossed directly over Rota with Category 5 intensity; sustained winds approached 180 mph (290 kph) and gusts exceeding 210 mph (335 kph).

Guam, Tinian and Saipan experienced destructive typhoon-force winds, torrential rainfall and dangerous storm conditions as the cyclone moved through the island chain. Rainfall totals of 12 to 20 inches prompted widespread flash floods across the islands. Early reports indicate widespread power outages, flash flooding, downed trees, debris-covered roads, and structural damage across the U.S. territory of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

Recovery efforts are expected to be particularly challenging, because many communities were still rebuilding from Super Typhoon Sinlaku earlier this year. Thousands of residents remained vulnerable due to ongoing power outages and damaged housing from that storm, leaving emergency managers to respond to a second major typhoon in less than three months.

Key Takeaways

• Typhoon Bavi remains an extremely dangerous major typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 kph).
• The storm is forecast to make landfall near Wenzhou, China, later this week.
• Refining, petrochemical, manufacturing, port and logistics operations across eastern China face increasing risks from destructive winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and hazardous marine conditions.
• Northern Taiwan and Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands remain vulnerable to significant weather impacts even without a direct landfall.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).