TC Plots Pipeline Capacity for Years-Long Growth in Gas Demand

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Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Executives at TC Energy expect significant growth in demand for natural gas across North America in the coming years, and the company is plotting expansions accordingly.

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Higher Expectations Means Higher Capex

The long-anticipated boom in energy demand from data centers is taking shape, with Canadian energy giant TC Energy reporting record-high natural gas flows across its pipeline system. Along with expanding export facilities for liquefied natural gas (LNG), activity is not slowing anytime soon, with executives at the company projecting a 36% increase in North American natural gas demand to 2035. Industrial Info is tracking more than US$6.5 billion worth of active and proposed projects from the natural gas pipelines owner and operator, including more than US$1.8 billion worth with a high probability (81% or more) of beginning construction as scheduled.

"We remain confident in our ability in 2026 to fully allocate C$6 billion (US$4.4 billion) of net annual capital expenditures (capex) through 2030 and have greater visibility to potentially surpass this level of investment in the latter part of the decade," said François Poirier, the chief executive officer to TC, in a quarterly earnings-related press release.

TC expects natural gas demand across North America to grow from 125 billion to 170 billion cubic feet per day before 2035, "driven by LNG exports, rising power generation and increasing reliability need from local distribution companies." Among its projects set to wrap up in 2026 is the Tula to Villa de Reyes pipeline in central Mexico, which is one of the final segments of the massive Sur de Texas -- Tuxpan Pipeline. The Tula-Villa de Reyes line will carry up to 886 million cubic feet per day of natural gas produced in southern Texas to the Mexican state of Vera Cruz.

The bulk of the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan system is an underwater line traversing the Gulf of Mexico. This line was completed in 2019. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Pipeline Project Database can learn more about the Tula-Villa de Reyes line--including investment values, key components and necessary equipment--from a detailed project report.

Other projects set to be completed later this year include a 34-mile replacement on ANR Line 0-501 in northeastern Louisiana, as part of the Oak Grove Enhancement Project. The line, which is managed by TC subsidiary ANR Pipeline Company, will be able to carry up to 125 million cubic feet per day from Richland Parish to West Carroll Parish. Subscribers can learn from a detailed project report.

By the Numbers

• More than US$6.5 billion: Total investment in active and proposed projects from TC tracked by Industrial Info
• Up to C$6 billion: TC's projected net annual capex through 2030
• C$12 billion: Total estimated value of TC projects in origination, outside pending approval

Columbia Line Points to Strong Market

"Outside pending approval, we see an additional C$12 billion (US$8.8 billion) of projects in origination, supported in part by our recent nonbinding open season on Columbia Gas that was three-times oversubscribed," Poirier said in a recent quarterly earnings-related conference call. "That $12 billion represents a relatively conservative view."

Among the projects under evaluation by subsidiary Columbia Gas Transmission LLC are two components of the proposed NKY Gate Enhancement Project, which would replace outdated gas-transmission infrastructure in northern Kentucky and southern Ohio: a 24.2-mile stretch from Campbell County to Bracken County, and a five-mile stretch within Nicolas County.

TC enjoyed a successful open season on the Columbia line during the fourth quarter, with bids coming in for 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of capacity. Subscribers can learn from detailed reports on the Campbell-to-Bracken and Nicolas County projects.

TC's revenues for 2025 totaled C$15.4 billion (US$11.3 billion), compared with C$13.8 billion (US$10.1 billion) for 2024. Net income was reported to be C$3.4 billion (US$2.5 billion), compared with C$4.6 billion (US$3.4 billion) for the previous year; TC attributed the decline, in part, to higher costs, depreciation and interest expenses.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project Database can click here for a full list of detailed reports for active and proposed projects from TC Energy.

Subscribers can click here for a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article.

Key Takeaways

• TC Energy expects to allocate US$4.4 billion of capex through 2030.
• North American natural gas demand could reach 170 billion cubic feet per day by 2035.
• TC's Columbia system is expected to see strong growth in particular.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).