Zambia's Solar Expansion Builds Resilience Against Hydropower Risk

---

Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst, for IIR News Intelligence

---

Summary

Industrial Info Resources examines Zambia's solar expansion toward 1,000 MW, as drought and mining demand reshape its power mix.

---

Copper & Water Key

Zambia sits at the center of southern Africa, a landlocked nation of roughly 20 million people whose economy and electricity system are both unusually intertwined with water and copper.

Zambia is one of Africa's major copper producers, with much of its mining and industrial activity concentrated in the Copperbelt and northwestern provinces. That concentration places exceptionally heavy demands on its power system: Copper mining and processing require large, reliable supplies of electricity, and in 2025 the mining sector consumed more than three times as much power as the residential sector.

At the same time, households and smaller businesses remain less consistently served, underscoring the competing pressures on Zambia's expanding electricity system.

World Bank data indicate only about half of the population currently has electricity access. Zambia's power system historically has relied heavily on large hydroelectric stations along the Zambezi and Kafue river systems to meet national electricity demand.

This dependence increasingly has become an operational vulnerability. According to Industrial Info Resources data, recurring drought, growing electricity demand, and planned mining expansion are pushing Zambia toward a broader generation portfolio, with solar emerging particularly quickly.

The Ministry of Energy says national generating capacity increased from 3,100 megawatts (MW) in 2021 to 4,576 MW in 2026. Solar capacity climbed from only 88 MW to 841 MW, roughly 51% of the increase in national generating capacity.

Maamba Project Adds 100 MW to the Grid

The latest addition to the generation stack is the 100-MW Maamba Solar project in Zambia's Southern Province. Developed by Maamba Solar Energy Limited, the plant supplied electricity into the national grid for the first time on September 24 and has entered its commissioning phase. The facility sits alongside existing Maamba thermal generation and connects through a dedicated 330-kilovolt substation. Its entire output is covered by a 20-year power-purchase agreement with state utility ZESCO.

Maamba follows several other significant additions. Copperbelt Energy Corporation commissioned the 136-MW second phase of its Itimpi solar project in May, bringing the site to 196 MW. Other utility, commercial, and distributed projects have rapidly expanded the national solar portfolio. Zambia's government is targeting approximately 1,000 MW of solar capacity by the end of 2026.

This growth represents a remarkable change from just five years ago and makes solar a meaningful component of Zambia's generation mix, rather than a supplemental resource.

Drought Exposes Hydropower Dependence

The urgency behind diversification was made clear during the severe 2023-24 drought, when hydropower availability collapsed and electricity load shedding reached extraordinary levels. Hydroelectricity still accounts for more than three-quarters of Zambia's generation, leaving the power supply highly exposed to rainfall across the Zambezi basin.

Conditions at Lake Kariba have improved substantially from last year but remain far from full. The Zambezi River Authority reported the reservoir at 481 meters on September 28, representing about 39% of usable storage for power generation, compared with only 15% at the same point in 2025.

These antecedent conditions matter as El Niño strengthens heading toward the Southern Hemisphere summer. While El Niño does not guarantee drought in Zambia, it historically tilts rainfall risk toward drier conditions across portions of southern Africa. For a country so dependent on seasonal reservoir recharge, another poor rainy season will likely constrain hydropower output.

Solar and hydropower also provide a degree of natural seasonal complementarity. During drought periods, reduced cloud cover and lower rainfall often coincide with stronger solar availability, helping photovoltaic generation offset at least part of the hydroelectric shortfall.

During wetter periods, increased cloud cover may trim solar output, but improved river flows and reservoir recharge support stronger hydropower generation. The relationship is not perfectly inverse from season to season, but across southern Africa it can help smooth some of the weather-driven variability inherent in either resource when used alone.

Longer-term climate change adds another layer of uncertainty. The World Bank says recurrent drought already is affecting Zambia's agriculture, hydropower generation, and economic development. A 2026 World Meteorological Organization and International Renewable Energy Agency (WMO-IRENA) assessment similarly found that southern Africa experienced below-normal hydropower potential for a third consecutive year in 2024, while solar conditions were generally favorable.

Zambia Emerges in Southern Africa's Solar Buildout

Zambia's push is also notable in a regional context. Southern Africa already has more than 5.5 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar capacity, led overwhelmingly by South Africa. Elsewhere, investment is broadening into Zambia, Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe. The region added another 218 MW during the first quarter of 2026 alone. Approaching 1 GW would therefore place Zambia among the more significant emerging solar markets in southern Africa, especially relative to the size of its power system.

Zambia currently has little large-scale electrical storage beyond the inherent water storage provided by its hydroelectric reservoirs, but that is beginning to change. The country has several battery projects under development, led by the 150-MW/600-MW-hour Leopards Hill system, alongside a broader rollout of smaller solar-plus-storage facilities.

Expanded storage could improve grid flexibility and help Zambia balance variable renewable generation while participating in regional electricity trading through the Southern African Power Pool, where several neighboring systems continue to operate with generation shortfalls.

The larger challenge is demand. Zambia wants to increase copper production toward 3 million metric tons annually, a target that would require output to more than triple from 2025 levels. This target would require increases of more than triple 2025 levels.

These prospective increases are set against the backdrop that mining already represents Zambia's largest electricity-consuming sector. Officials have warned that achieving those production ambitions will require several thousand additional megawatts of dependable power.

Solar alone cannot replace the dispatchability and storage value of hydropower. However, Zambia's rapid buildout is changing the equation. By pairing abundant solar resources with hydropower, thermal generation, regional trading, and eventually more storage, the country is building a system less vulnerable to whether the next rainy season delivers enough water.

Key Takeaways

• Zambia's solar capacity has risen from 88 MW in 2021 to about 841 MW in 2026, with the government targeting roughly 1,000 MW by year-end.
• The 100-MW Maamba Solar project is the latest major addition to a rapidly expanding national solar portfolio.
• Hydropower still dominates Zambia's generation mix, leaving electricity supply vulnerable to drought and poor reservoir recharge.
• Solar and hydropower offer useful seasonal complementarity, with stronger solar potential often coinciding with drier conditions and weaker hydro output.
• Zambia's mining sector consumes more than three times as much electricity as the residential sector, and planned copper expansion could sharply increase demand.
• New battery-storage projects could improve grid flexibility as Zambia integrates more solar generation and participates in regional power trading.

---

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).