Germany Faces Major Power Shortages as Technology Debate Stalls Projects

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--At a time when Europe -- Germany in particular -- is forging ahead with the implementation of green energy policies and projects, the specter of base-load power shortages in the near future is likely to motivate a significant number of nuclear power projects, which the champions of the nuclear industry (and Greenpeace) maintain is the cleanest low-emissions technology for producing major additions to the grid networks.

As old nuclear plants reach retirement and old, dirty coal-fed power stations are being closed down or undergoing extensive makeovers, the European Wind Energy Association reports that since 2000, the European Union (EU) has added 47,000 megawatts (MW) of new wind energy compared with only 9,600 MW of coal-fed power and 1,200 MW of nuclear power generation. In 2007 alone, EU countries commissioned 8,505 MW of wind power, but coal-fed and nuclear power generation saw net reductions of 750 MW and 1,023 MW, respectively, Climate Progress reported.

With about 28% of global installed wind energy, Germany is at the forefront of the implementation of renewable energy projects, but the alarm has been raised by the German Energy Agency (DENA) of serious power shortfalls beginning in 2012. The 22,000 MW of wind power represents only 6%-7% of the national power requirement when it is operating.

At the same time, work on several new power projects have been postponed as debates rage among the population and in government over the pledge to phase out nuclear power plants by 2021 and build 25 coal-fed plants, with the latter attracting the ire of "clean" environmental lobbies who believe that there is no such thing as "clean coal." As the shortfalls approach and supply options tighten, the public, and commercial and industrial power users will face a sharp increase in the price of their power supply.

Wulf Bernotat, Chief Executive of major power utility E.ON AG (OTC: EONGY) (Dusseldorf, Germany), has said that the country could face power shortages ranging from 12,000 MW to 21,000 MW and that Germany will still need nuclear power and modern gas and coal-fired power stations with lower CO2 emissions than produced by previous technologies. He suggested that the best way to fill the gap was to extend the operational life of Germany's 17 existing nuclear plants (21,000 MW).

Jurgen Grossman, CEO of German power major RWE, warned that blackouts could start as early as the coming European summer with the vagaries of wind weather causing problems with wind power and power station cooling systems. He said Germany could be confronted with a power shortfall of 30,000 MW by 2015.

Decisions will have to be made urgently as power project resources are in short supply globally as other countries and regions face the challenges of clean/cleaner energy and rapidly increasing demand. Feedstock prices are soaring, and hydrocarbon based projects, including the exploitation of new oil fields, are feeling slowdown effects of tightening project costs. Market conditions will force new levels of efficiency. Whether these will come in time, with lead times of three to five years, to prevent power systems dislocation is currently an open question.

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