Presidents Day Weekend Storm Threats Loom for Southeast, East Coast

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst, for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

A winter storm is expected to move from the U.S. Southwest across the southern Plains and into the East this weekend. This system is forecast to bring heavy rain and localized flooding. Accumulating snow and gusty winds will impact parts of the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Atlantic Canada.

Flooding Risk across Texas and the Southeast

The system is expected to organize late Thursday into Friday, February 13, as upper-level energy moves out of the Southwest. Widespread precipitation will develop across southern Plains and ArkLaTex (northwest Louisiana, northeast Texas and south Arkansas), before extending east into the lower Mississippi Valley.

On Friday, February 13, and Saturday, February 14, a broad marginal risk for excessive rainfall is forecast from the Texas Panhandle to the mid-Mississippi Valley. Specifically on Saturday, February 14, an embedded slight risk across most of Arkansas is forecast. Currently, this forecast region includes Cross Oil's Smackover Refinery and Delek's El Dorado Refinery in south-central Arkansas.

By Sunday, February 15, moderate to heavy rainfall is likely across the Southeast, including the Florida peninsula. Thunderstorms are possible, though widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Risk for Heavy Snow from central Appalachians to Atlantic Canada

Forecast uncertainty remains highest along the northern edge of the precipitation shield. The extent of the freezing line will determine what regions will get snow, a wintry mix or rain. Interaction between the southern branch of the upper-level jet and cold air channeling will determine timing and totals.

Run-to-run variability has been extreme for the coastal regions of mid-Atlantic and New England. For New York City, snowfall totals ranging from 1 to 9 inches are noted in recent European model output. Most of Pennsylvania and northern Maryland also experience vast run-to-run changes.

Additionally, Canadian guidance is showing a higher risk for accumulating wintry mix for the mid-Atlantic. Precipitation would start as snow with some regions ending with a layer of freezing rain on top. A slight risk of wintry mix is possible for the Delaware City refinery.

Currently, accumulating snow is likely across the central Appalachians, interior Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast. Higher elevations remain favored over coastal locations due to marginal surface temperatures.

Across the higher terrain of West Virginia and western Maryland, snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches remain possible. Interior portions of Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, and western Virginia could see 1 to 3 inches. There is a risk of higher totals depending on the depth and timing of cold air.

Farther north, central New England may see 2 to 4 inches, while upstate New York and northern New England--particularly the Green and White Mountains--could receive 6 to 12 inches if the storm tracks slightly farther north. Wind gusts approaching 35 to 40 mph in these regions may lead to localized power outages.

Across Atlantic Canada, the heaviest snowfall is expected from Nova Scotia into coastal Newfoundland where totals of 30 to 50 cm (12 to 20 inches) are possible. Isolated totals near 70 cm (28 inches) are possible across northern Labrador. Gusty winds from 55 to 70 kph (35 to 45 mph) could produce periods of reduced visibility, particularly in coastal regions.

Once the system departs, colder air flowing across the Great Lakes may support lake-effect snow downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, potentially extending impacts into early next week.

Click on the image at right for a map of the Sunday, February 15, outlook from the NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

Energy Impacts

Heavy rainfall across the southern United States may temporarily affect transportation corridors and regional infrastructure. In northern areas, accumulating snow and gusty winds could lead to scattered outages and short-term increases in heating demands.

Icing may become a factor for the mid-Atlantic with snow changing over to freezing rain late Sunday. In this situation, this wintry mix may impact travel with airport delays and icy roads.

Snow-related impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could produce short-term demand increases. However, the absence of entrenched Arctic air limits prolonged cold-driven stress.

Key Takeaways

• Widespread rain expected from Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, with a marginal to slight flooding risk Friday through Sunday.
• Snow most likely across the central Appalachians and interior Northeast; coastal snowfall remains highly uncertain.
• Higher elevations of West Virginia, western Maryland, and northern New England could see the greatest accumulations, with gusty winds causing isolated outages.
• Lake-effect snow may develop downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario after the storm, extending impacts into early next week.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).