Arctic Outbreak Sets Stage for Winter Storm, Widespread U.S. Impacts

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Winter Storm Fern is expected to develop this week as a major, high-impact winter weather event. Its effects are forecast to span nearly 700,000 square miles, from the Texas Panhandle to the Northeast.

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Arctic Air Mass, Winter Storm Pack a Punch

A combination of a surging Arctic air mass and Winter Storm Fern will be the two dominant hazards in the coming days. The storm poses risks from both energy demand surges and operational disruptions, including potential natural gas freeze-offs and refinery disruptions. In addition, the forecasted icing corridor may suffer electricity transmission and distribution outages.

IIR Energy's Breaking Energy News (BEN) reported this story on Wednesday.

"While reports are few so far, there are concerns about everything from frozen well heads in North Dakota to refinery issues in the Great Lakes," said Trey Hamblet, Vice President of Chemicals and Refining Research for Industrial Information Resources. "As the winter blast advances towards the U.S., Gulf Coast refiners will be monitoring critical equipment even more closely as temperatures drop. Operating at sub-freezing temperatures for more than 24 hours is an operational challenge for assets along the coast that are not equipped for regular exposure to these conditions."

A total of 33 refineries and around 1,132 power plants are located in or near the area impacted by the Winter Storm Watch.

The 33 refineries have a combined processing operational capacity of 4 million barrels per day (BBL/d). Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Plant Database can learn more about these refineries from a list of detailed plant profiles.

The power plants have a combined electricity operational capacity of 341,295 megawatts (MW).

Forecast Guidance

Forecast guidance indicates that a strong push of Arctic air will move southward from central Canada on Thursday. This bitterly cold air will collide with an increasingly active southern jet stream, setting the stage for a widespread corridor of snow, ice, and extreme cold.

By Friday, winter weather is expected to expand across the southern plains as precipitation spreads northeast and Arctic air deepens. By Saturday, impacts should extend into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, pushing into the Carolinas and reaching southwestern Virginia by evening. On Sunday, the storm is forecast to overrun the mid-Atlantic, with heavy snow potentially spreading into New England and New York by Monday. The timing and strength of the Arctic air will be critical in determining precipitation type and accumulation amounts.

The cold air tied to this system will be severe and expansive. Subzero lows are likely in the Upper Midwest, and wind chills could near -50°F in the coldest pockets. By Thursday, extreme cold should be entrenched across the Canadian Prairies and the north-central U.S. Anomalies may run 25-35°F below normal locally. Freezing temperature could reach coastal Texas and parts of the Gulf Coast Sunday and Monday.

This strength of the cold air increases the risk of freezing rain and sleet along the southern edge of the snow shield. Cold air aloft will favor heavier snowfall where lift is strongest. The storm's footprint overlaps critical infrastructure and major population centers, potentially affecting roughly one-quarter of the United States.

Along the southern flank, confidence is growing in a significant ice event. Periods of freezing rain and sleet may produce hazardous travel and prolonged power outages across parts of Texas and much of the Southeast. Recent guidance indicates icing could reach south to Houston and Freeport on Friday. The highest risk extends from central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and across portions of the Carolinas, where localized ice accretion could approach two inches.

Farther north, cold air pushing into the southern Plains was expected to drive a dangerous transition from a wintry mix to accumulating snow. This is especially concerning for north Texas, including the Dallas--Fort Worth Metroplex and the ArkLaTex region on Friday.

Heavy snow is also forecast from the Texas Panhandle through the Tennessee Valley. Current projections suggest widespread totals of 7 to 11 inches, with isolated higher amounts possible. As the precipitation shield shifts east, heavy snow is possible across the mid-Atlantic and North Carolina. Totals may range from 10-15 inches in areas with isolated accumulation exceeding 18 inches.

Extreme Cold Watch/Warnings

An extreme cold watch is in effect for all of south-central Texas from Saturday evening through Monday morning. During this period, dangerously cold conditions are possible. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens with wind chills expected to approach subzero levels. Industry across the region should be prepared for prolonged exposure to very cold temperatures throughout the weekend and into early Monday.

Extreme cold warnings are in effect across a large portion of Minnesota and North Dakota. This covers areas from northwestern and north-central Minnesota through the Red River Valley and across much of northern, central and western North Dakota. The warnings generally began late Wednesday night or early Thursday and extend through Friday, with some locations in North Dakota remaining under an extreme cold warning through Sunday. During the warning periods, wind chills are expected to reach extremely dangerous levels, commonly ranging from -40 to -55°F.

Blizzards

Across the U.S. Upper Midwest, multiple blizzard warnings are in effect in northern and eastern Iowa, southwest to south-central Minnesota and portions of eastern South Dakota. Winds gusting up to 60 miles per hour at times will blow both falling snow and snow already on the ground, greatly reducing visibility down to a quarter or mile or less at times, yielding blizzard conditions.

Surrounding the blizzard warnings, winter weather advisories are in effect across additional parts of Minnesota, South Dakota, Iowa, and extreme northwestern Illinois. Snow showers, strong winds -- gusting to 45 mph, and blowing snow are expected. Visibility may drop to near one quarter mile at times in blowing snow.

Environment Canada has issued cold warnings for northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, along with western Ontario. Morning lows across these regions will range from -35 to -40°C (-30 to -40 °F) through the weekend. Wind chills are forecast to drop to -50°C (-58°F).

Editor's note: Amir Richani contributed to this report.

Key Takeaways

• Winter Storm Fern is forecast to pack a wallop across 700,000 square miles.
• The storm could lead to frozen well heads in North Dakota to refinery issues in the Great Lakes.
• Gulf Coast refiners will be monitoring critical equipment.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).