Billions Worth of Texas Solar Power Projects to Come Online in 2026

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Written by Eric Funderburk for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Solar power generation is expected to overtake coal-fired generation in Texas this year, in keeping with the more than $12 billion worth of utility-scale solar installations planned to come online in the state this year.

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A Generation Milestone

For a while, solar power generation has been flirting with meeting and eventually surpassing coal-fired generation in Texas, and that milestone seems set to be crossed in a big way this year. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that since the start of this year, and especially noticeable from second-quarter estimates onward, solar power's dominance over coal has been firmly in place and is expected to surpass coal's annual generation in the state this year.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid covers the vast majority of Texas, and the EIA reports that ERCOT's 14.0 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of solar generation slightly surpassed coal's 13.8 billion kWh in the first quarter of this year, but from the second quarter onward, those numbers continue to diverge more widely in favor of solar generation. Industrial Info Resources data find 37 utility-scale solar projects, valued at $12.8 billion, that are set to be completed in Texas this year.

Large Projects

The top five Texas solar projects by value set to be completed this year all come in at 400 megawatts (MW) or more of generating capacity, with the top project planned to provide more twice that amount when completed: the 837-MW Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar Farm in Navarro County, about 65 miles southwest of Dallas. Owner Solar Proponent broke ground on the solar farm last year, beginning the installation of around 1.5 million solar modules over a 6,700-acre site. Industrial Info Resources expects the $1.1 billion solar farm to be completed in the second half of this year. Subscribers to the Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Project Database can learn more by viewing the project report. The solar portion of the facility is accompanied by a 418-MW battery energy storage system (BESS), adding another $500 million to the project's investment value and making it one of the largest BESS installations expected to come online this year in the U.S. outside California.

Top Project in Top County

The Tehuacana Creek construction pushes Navarro County into the lead spender for 2026 Texas solar projects. The project is joined in Navarro County by Matrix Renewables' 382-MW Tormes photovoltaic plant near Corsicana, on which engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor SOLV Energy is putting the finishing touches, as well as Gaia Solar's 222.8-MW solar farm, which includes a 75-MW BESS installation and is in the process of wrapping up.

BESS Installations

Several of the Texas solar projects set to come online this year include accompanying BESS facilities that will allow the plants to continue providing appropriate power in times of low solar generation. Outside of the Tehuacana Creek 1 project, the largest Texas BESS installation expected to come online this year at a solar farm already has been completed near Haskell, Texas, where a 321-MW BESS installation nearly matches the nameplate capacity of the 374-MW solar installation.

Future Texas Solar Power Completions

In total, the EIA forecasts that Texas solar power on the ERCOT grid will account for 78.0 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of power generation this year, easily surpassing coal's expected 59.9 billion kWh, and growing even more in 2027 to 99.0 billion kWh in 2027.

Despite solar's rise in prominence, it is still eclipsed by Texas' wind power generation and the state's primary power driver--natural gas. In comparison to solar power's 78 billion kWh of generation expected this year, wind is expected to produce 121 billion kWh, according to the EIA, and natural gas is forecast to supply the ERCOT grid 210 billion kWh. Still, Texas solar power construction is proceeding at a much higher pace than new wind projects.

Next year could provide an even larger solar bonanza for Texas. Industrial Info Resources is tracking more than 70 Texas capital solar construction projects, valued at $23 billion, set to be completed next year, although not all of these will move forward as planned. Industrial Info has rated 21 of these projects as having a medium or high probability (70-99%) of sticking to planned timelines. Several of the projects weigh in at more than 300 MW of generation capacity, with the largest, Enbridge's 600-MW Clear Ford Creek solar project already under construction and expected go online in summer 2027 in Gonzales County.

Key Takeaways

• Solar power is expected to overtake coal-fired generation on an annual basis in Texas this year.
• Industrial Info Resources is tracking $12.8 billion of Texas solar that are planned to be completed this year.
• One of the largest Texas solar projects set to be completed this year is the 837-MW Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar Farm in Navarro County, which also includes 418-MW BESS.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).