CF Industries Points to Blooming Fertilizer Market in 2026

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Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Despite a major setback at one of its U.S. plants, CF Industries as a positive outlook for the fertilizer market in 2026.

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Blue Ammonia Leads Developments

Fertilizer giant CF Industries is upbeat about its 2026 prospects. Executives expect the global nitrogen market will "remain constructive" in the near term, while interest in low-carbon ammonia and low carbon nitrogen products will continue to grow. Industrial Info is tracking more than $8.3 billion worth of active and proposed projects from CF, nearly all of which is attributed to grassroot or unit-addition projects.

Among CF's most widely anticipated projects is its Blue Point Complex in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, which is designed to produce about 4,400 tons per day of "blue" ammonia via a process that would capture roughly 1.6 million tons per year of carbon dioxide (CO2). CF says all captured CO2 will be transported via pipeline to a sequestration site. Blue Point is being developed as a joint venture with JERA, which is Japan's largest power generation company, and Mitsui & Company.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Chemical Processing Plant and Project databases can learn more about Blue Point--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from a plant profile and detailed project report.

In a recent quarterly earnings-related conference call, Christopher Bohn, the chief executive officer of CF, said that Blue Point "has progressed well from a positive FID [final investment decision] in April, through hitting all our planned milestones by the end of the year. This included our partner securing offtake from new low-carbon ammonia demand sources and receiving contract for difference awards from the Japanese government. We expect to begin civil work at the Blue Point site in the second quarter of 2026."

About seven miles southeast of Blue Point, CF already is at work on an expansion of its nitrogen complex in Donaldsonville, which aims to upgrade and increase its production of diesel exhaust fluid. The project is set to be completed later this year. Subscribers can learn from a plant profile and detailed project report.

CF executives expect capital expenditures (capex) in 2026 to total about $1.3 billion, which includes $550 million of sustaining capex for the company's existing network and $400 million for both the Blue Point joint venture and other infrastructure projects. CF's capex for 2025 totaled about $950 million.

By the Numbers

• More than $8.3 billion: Total investment value of projects from CF, as tracked by Industrial Info
• $1.3 billion: CF's estimated full-year capex for 2026
• 4,400 tons per day: Amount of blue ammonia CF expects to produce at its Blue Point complex

Global and Local Disruptions Cloud Outlook

Barclays and other analysts believe the ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran could boost nitrogen pricing for the first half of 2026, potentially providing an upside for North American producers. Disruption to the fertilizer supply from the Middle East could turn investors toward CF and European counterparts like U.K.-based Yara International.

But CF is wrestling with the fallout from a November explosion at its fertilizer plant in Yazoo City, Mississippi, which Bohn said is not expected to resume production "until the fourth quarter of 2026, at the earliest." There were no reports of any injuries from the explosion, and CF accounted for all staff members.

It is not yet known how the explosion will affect a proposed series of emission upgrades at the Yazoo City plant, which includes the construction of a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) dehydration and compression unit. Subscribers can learn from a plant profile and detailed project report.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project Database can click here for a full list of detailed reports for active and proposed projects from CF.

Subscribers can click here for a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article, and click here for a full list of related plant profiles.

Key Takeaways

• CF executives expect the global nitrogen market will remain constructive in the near term.
• Analysts believe the conflict in Iran could boost nitrogen pricing for the first half of 2026.
• CF does not expect to resume production at its Yazoo City fertilizer plant until the fourth quarter, at the earliest.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).