Codelco: No Chance of Hitting 1.7 Million-Tonne Copper Target by 2030

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence

Summary

Chilean mining firm Codelco faces a difficult operational year, and its chairman says there is no chance it will reach its copper production goal of 1.7 million tonnes per year in the next few years. Codelco produced 504,600 tonnes of copper through May, an 11.3% year-on-year drop, partly due to the El Teniente mine's lower output.

A Difficult Year

Bernardo Fontaine, chairman of Codelco's governing board, recently said in an interview with Radio Infinita that 2026 would be difficult year for the company's copper production.

"The company had a problem: it was always overly optimistic about its production forecasts and never met them. Codelco has failed to meet its projections for seven consecutive years," said Fontaine, who was appointed to this position in May.

More importantly, the chairman rejected Codelco's previously stated objective of recovering attributable production to 1.7 million tonnes by 2030.

"This is going to be a difficult year for production. There is a medium-term plan, four to five years, Codelco is expected to produce 1.7 million tonnes. There is no possibility of that," he added.

According to Cochilco, the Chilean copper mining commission, between January and May, Codelco produced 504,600 tonnes of copper, an 11.3% decline compared to the 568,600 tonnes produced during the same period in 2025.

The El Teniente mining operation recorded the largest absolute production decline among Codelco's operating areas, with output falling 27.2% year on year to 102,900 tonnes during the first five months of 2026, from 141,400 tonnes a year earlier.

For 2026, the Chilean state company set an own-production guidance between 1.331 million and 1.357 million tonnes.

To reverse years of declining output, Codelco relied on a portfolio of structural projects intended to expand output and replace depleted production. However, despite billions in investments in these projects, the company has struggled to significantly increase production.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 60 Codelco projects in Chile amounting to investments of US$21 billion.

Fontaine said the company will continue with the investments already contracted, but it will review the previously announced strategy that contemplated total investments of US$34 billion.

"There is no capacity to finance that amount, and it is also unclear whether those investments would produce results. Given the previous experience, in which many investments failed to deliver the expected results, we need to prioritize," said Fontaine.

Part of the reason is Codelco's growing debt, which has increased by roughly 50% from 2022 to 2025 to US$26.3 billion, with yearly interest of US$1 billion, according to Fontaine.

International Impact

Continued production setbacks at Codelco could add to concerns about the availability of future mined copper supply, particularly as demand forecasts remain strong and several major mines have experienced operational disruptions.

Chile, the world's largest copper producer, has faced operational setbacks at several mines in recent weeks after severe weather affected northern and central parts of the country, including Candelaria, Caserones and Los Pelambres.

Key Takeaways

• There is no chance of Codelco reaching 1.7 million tonnes per year in the next four years.
• Codelco's output through May reached 504,600 tonnes, an 11.3% year-on-year drop.
• Severe winter weather has disrupted operations at several mines across northern and central Chile.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).