EIA: India Surpasses China as Top Nation in Oil Consumption Growth

Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--During the last several months China's growth in energy use--formerly the biggest in the world--has fallen to second place, behind India, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). For 25 years (1998-2023), China's oil consumption growth outpaced that of India, as the world's two most populous nations raced to boost their industrial development.

Across 2024 and 2025, the EIA said, India will account for 25% of total growth in oil consumption. Globally, the agency said it expects an increase of 0.9 million barrels of liquid fuels per day (BBL/d) in 2024, with that increase rising to 1.3 million BBL/d in 2025.

India's chief demand drivers will be in the area of fuels for transportation and home cooking. The EIA said it expects those drivers to increase by 220,000 BBL/d in 2024 and 330,000 BBL/d in 2025.

And while China's demand is still growing--up by 90,000 BBL/d in 2024 and 250,000 BBL/d in 2025--that growth has slowed in recent years due to rising adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and of greater use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for trucking. Additional factors include a declining population and slower economic growth. What growth does remain is mostly going toward the manufacture of petrochemicals.

This flip at the top dovetails with India recently overtaking China in another big category--world population leader, a post the former achieved in April 2023, according to United Nations data. Because both countries lag behind many western nations in industrial development and per-capita energy use, the potential for further growth is considered to be huge.

China's Total Oil Use Still Leads the World
India's top spot is only for liquid growth rate, not for overall consumption, the EIA stressed. The EIA's report said, "Total consumption of liquid fuels in India was 5.3 million BBL/d in 2023, while China consumed more than triple that amount at 16.4 million BBL/d in 2023, based on estimates in our December STEO (Short Term Energy Outlook)."

India Refinery Growth
To help satisfy domestic demand increases, India is expanding its refining footprint. Hillary Stevenson, IIR Energy senior director, energy market intelligence, said Industrial Info is tracking more than 2 million (BBL/d) of potential capacity increases both at grassroot refineries and existing refineries. One grassroot plant is currently under construction is HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited's (HRRL) (Rajasthan, India) 180,000-BBL/d Barmer Refinery. The lone crude unit is expected to start operations in mid-2025. For related information, see December 2, 2024, article - India Pushes Forward With Refined Fuels Exports to Europe.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, he has increasingly pursued greater ties with Middle East neighbors. Expanding from simple energy trade, his goals include political alliances, regional security and energy investment.

India Sees US$87 Billion in Petrochemical Investment
At India Chem 2024, held October 19 in Mumbai, the nation's minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, said India's growing demand for petrochemicals will likely attract US$87 billion in investment over the next 10 years.

With more Indian citizens rising into the middle class, Puri said, those individuals will increase demand for products made from petrochemicals. Meeting that demand will require significant investment in refining facilities. The nation has much room for growth, he pointed out, because its per-capita energy use is significantly below that of more-developed nations.

Specifically, the nation currently uses 25 million-30 million metric tonnes of petrochemical products annually, he said. That market, currently valued at US$220 billion, should reach US$300 billion next year, and triple by 2040.

Puri said certain government policies are key to encouraging development. Those policies include developing petroleum, chemicals, and petrochemicals investment regions (PCPIRs), plastic parks and textile parks. Other policies are facilitation of 100% foreign direct investment (FDI).

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).