Mosaic Endures Rough 2025 for Phosphates, But Upbeat on 2026

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Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Mosaic took a hit from a bad market for phosphates in 2025, but executives believe 2026 could see a sharp turnaround.

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Careful Planning Buoys Phosphate

Declining fertilizer demand, attributed to rising phosphate prices and an early onset of winter weather, is challenging agricultural chemical producer The Mosaic Company (Tampa, Florida) as it heads into 2026, following a rough year for market conditions. Nonetheless, the company is expecting a significantly better operating environment for the coming year. Industrial Info is tracking more than $1.5 billion worth of active and proposed projects from Mosaic worldwide, about $1.1 billion of which is attributed to projects across the U.S. and Canada.

Mosaic says its North American phosphate market shipments for fourth-quarter 2025 were down about 20% when compared with the same period in 2024, which forced the company to adjust its phosphate production plan and product mix. By redirecting products to markets with stronger demand, Mosaic managed to keep production volumes consistent with those of third-quarter 2025, the company said in a press release.

Roughly an hour east of its headquarters, Mosaic is seeking permits to extend the life its South Fort Meade Phosphate Mine in Florida. The company hopes to add 1,966 acres to the mine, which the company says will add four years to its operating life. The 6 million tons per year of extracted phosphate rock is sent to Mosaic's South Fort Meade Beneficiation Plant.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Plant and Project databases can learn more about the South Fort Meade project--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from a plant profile and detailed project report.

Mosaic also might increase its output of phosphogypsum, which is a byproduct from the processing of phosphate rock into the phosphoric acid used in fertilizer. The company is seeking permits for an expansion of its New Wales Fertilizer Plant in Mulberry, Florida, which produces up to 3 million tons per year of phosphoric acid and other processed phosphate products. If approved, it would be the first significant capacity addition at the facility since 2002. Subscribers can learn more from a plant profile and detailed project report.

By the Numbers

• More than $1.5 billion: Total value of global projects from Mosaic tracked by Industrial Info
• About 20%: Decline in Mosaic's phosphate shipments from fourth-quarter 2024 to fourth-quarter 2025
• 1,966: Acreage Mosaic seek to add to its South Fort Meade Phosphate Mine

Potash Fares Better

North American potash demand also was affected by market conditions in the fourth quarter, but it fared better than phosphates. Mosaic estimates its fourth-quarter 2025 phosphate sales volumes stood at 1.3 million tons, a 19.75% decline from fourth-quarter 2024, while potash sales volumes were about 2.2 million tons, statistically unchanged from the same period last year.

Executives noted in the press release that potash markets are balanced, and potash prices in 2025 generally were affordable when compared with phosphate prices.

Mosaic is planning a series of upgrades and improvements to its potash complex in Esterhazy, Saskatchewan. Three units are expected to see upgrades to their processing and production equipment this year, while two could see modernizations to roads, rail spurs and tailings in 2027.

Subscribers can learn more from detailed profiles of the complex's 3 million-ton-per-year K-1 unit, 5 million-ton-per-year K-2 unit and 21 million-ton-per-year K-3 unit, and a detailed list of project reports.

Executives at Mosaic are much more optimistic about 2026, with industry expectations pointing to record levels for global phosphate and potash shipments.

"Despite the extraordinarily weak fourth quarter, 2026 is positioned to be more constructive," Mosaic said. "Growers are expected to replenish nutrients removed by last year's strong crop, and additional government support payments are poised to stimulate demand for the North American spring application period. Phosphate markets are balanced to tight, a dynamic that is becoming more evident as spring demand accelerates."

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project and Plant databases can click here for a full list of detailed reports for active and proposed projects from Mosaic.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project and Plant databases can click here for a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article, and click here for a full list of related plant profiles.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 was a dim year for phosphate sales, with Mosaic taking a hit in sales volumes amid high prices and weak demand.
• Potash sales were less affected by market conditions during 2025, with sales volumes statistically unchanged.
• 2026, on the other hand, could be a banner year for phosphate and potash sales worldwide.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).