Pemex Remains Far from 1.8 Million-bpd Production Goal

---

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

---

Summary

Pemex's liquid hydrocarbon production averaged about 1.65 million bpd between January and June, some 150,000 bpd below its production goal.

---

Missed Goal

Pemex has so far fallen short of the Mexican government's oil production goals, while crude processing has increased as the new Dos Bocas refinery is running at higher capacity.

In 2025, the new government of Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Pemex would maintain an average oil output of 1.8 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) during her mandate.

However, for years, the Mexican company has been struggling with the natural decline of its fields, while production from new fields has fallen too short to cover those losses.

In 2004, the Mexican company produced a record of 3.3 million bpd, driven by the Cantarell field. Since then, Pemex's production consistently declined, before recovering from 1.7 million bpd in 2019 to 1.87 million bpd in 2023. Production in 2024 and 2025 declined further.

Following Cantarell's decline, production from the Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex, the company's second biggest oil complex, also began its natural decline, further weighing on Pemex's production.

Between January and July this year, Pemex produced 1.65 million bpd of liquid hydrocarbons, including partners, based on the company's data. About 49% of the volumes were comprised of heavy crude, followed by 24% of light crude and 27% of condensates.

A New Partnership

To increase its production, the Mexican company could expand its exploration and production frontier. As part of that effort, the company this year announced a partnership with Petrobras to explore offshore areas in Mexico and find new resources. The partnership will help Pemex leverage Petrobras' deepwater expertise.

"Pemex needs to invest a significant portion in the exploration of new fields. That is the reason for the alliance we want to form with Petrobras; Petrobras has developed various exploration models for Brazil that we are very interested in sharing," said Sheinbaum in May 2026.

Active Projects

In addition to exploration, Pemex is seeking to increase its output through the development of new fields. Industrial Info Resources data show 47 grassroot oil and gas production projects involving Pemex, worth US$4.95 billion.

Among the largest greenfield projects announced by Pemex are Zama, which is in earlier stages, and the Trion, which is under construction.

Only three of the grassroot projects tracked by Industrial Info Resources have a high probability of completion, while the rest remain medium to low.

In terms of overall oil and gas production projects, which include decommissioning and dismantling programs, drilling programs, and workovers, Industrial Info Resources is tracking 362 Pemex projects worth almost US$8 billion.

On the downstream front, Pemex has been able to boost domestic refining backed by the startup of the 340,000-bpd Dos Bocas refinery and higher throughput of other facilities. Higher domestic refining rates combined with lower production leaves less crude available for export.

In terms of downstream projects, Industrial Info Resources is tracking 150 Pemex refining projects amounting to investments of US$2.74 billion.

Key Takeaways

• Pemex's production in 2026 is averaging 1.65 million, 150,000 bpd below its goal.
• The company has announced partnerships with Petrobras as it develops new grassroot projects.
• Refining rates are higher, driven by the Dos Bocas refinery.

---

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).