Tropical Storm Lala Takes Aim at Hawaii

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst, for IIR News Intelligence

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Summary

Tropical Storm Lala formed Thursday morning while approaching Hawaii from the east-southeast. This has prompted forecasters to issue a Hurricane Watch for the Big Island as the storm strengthens ahead of its closest approach this weekend.

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Weekend Trouble

As of 5 a.m. HST Thursday, August 13, Tropical Storm Lala was about 705 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving west at 10 miles per hour (mph) with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Lala is forecast steadily strengthen during the next two days, potentially approaching hurricane intensity as it passes near or just south of the Big Island early Saturday, August 15. The forecast track then carries the storm south of the smaller Hawaiian Islands through the remainder of the weekend.


Heavy Rain, Wind Threaten Hawaiian Infrastructure

Copious rainfall and subsequent flooding may produce the most widespread impacts, regardless of Lala's exact track. Rain should begin across the Big Island Friday before spreading westward through the island chain during the weekend. Forecast totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected across much of Hawaii, with localized amounts approaching 20 inches capable of producing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across steep terrain.

Strong winds also could disrupt Hawaii's electric transmission and distribution infrastructure, with terrain amplifying wind speeds. Winds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains may approach 90 mph, with even higher speeds possible in some elevated locations.

Ports, airports and agricultural operations also could face disruptions from heavy rainfall, high winds and flooding. Hawaii's agricultural sector includes significant coffee, macadamia nut, tropical fruit, livestock and nursery operations, with flooding and wind posing risks to crops, farm infrastructure and transportation.

Lala also is expected to generate large swells beginning along east-facing shores Friday. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible along Hawaii, accompanied by large waves capable of coastal flooding and beach erosion.


Track Shifts South, but Uncertainty Remains

Lala became better organized overnight as convection increased near its center and the circulation became less elongated. Generally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions should support additional strengthening through Friday.

A strong mid-level ridge north of Hawaii is steering Lala west to west-northwest. Recent model guidance shifted south, prompting the NHC to move its forecast track accordingly. However, average NHC track errors at 48 hours are approximately 50--60 miles, leaving meaningful uncertainty in how closely Lala approaches the Big Island.

The official forecast strengthens Lala to 70 mph near Hawaii Saturday, just below hurricane intensity, although some higher-performing guidance indicates Category 1 hurricane strength is possible. Increasing wind shear, dry-air intrusion and land interaction could limit or weaken Lala after it passes the Big Island, before environmental conditions potentially become more favorable again early next week.

Key Takeaways

• A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hawaii County as Lala approaches the Big Island.
• Lala could strengthen to near hurricane intensity before its closest approach early Saturday.
• Widespread rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is forecast, with localized totals potentially reaching 20 inches.
• Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across steep terrain.
• Strong winds could affect electric infrastructure, ports, airports and agricultural operations.
• A southward shift in the forecast track favors Lala passing near or just south of the Big Island, but meaningful track uncertainty remains.

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