Alaskan Oil Potential Lifted by New North Slope Developments

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The Energy Department is expected to see Alaskan oil production increase by more than 10% as developments kick off in the northern tundra. Production is still a trickle compared with the 2 million bpd from the late 1980s.

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Billions in Investment Value Paying Off

There are only a handful of projects related to the oil and gas sector in Alaska, though first deliveries from a project on the North Slope could reinvigorate the state's energy potential.

Industrial Info Resources is monitoring oil and gas-related projects in Alaska that have a combined investment value of around $25.5 billion. Among the largest is the so-called Willow Bear Tooth program.

Led by ConocoPhillips, Willow is in the Bear Tooth Unit of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Industrial Info Resources data show plans to build a central processing facility with five drill sites, five infield pipelines and other associated infrastructure.

Ice roads and a temporary island are necessary to work in the extreme north of Alaska, where warming temperatures make work in the tundra complicated. Listed as high-probability project in, Willow could be completed before the end of the decade.

Though difficult, it is possible to get work done. On Tuesday, Australian energy company Santos said it loaded 450,000 barrels of oil from the Pikka development on the North Slope onto the Polar Resolution, its inaugural cargo bound for the U.S. West Coast.

The first phase of operations there are yielding around 23,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd). Santos is expecting that to ramp up to a peak of around 80,000 bpd by the third quarter.

Santos Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Gallagher said the play is now "recognized as a new generation play in an established global super basin."

According to Industrial Info Resources data, the Pikka development on the North Slope has a total investment value of around $1 billion, including more than $70 million in new pipe.

Work started with 28 developmental wells in the North Slope, though that will be expanded to 45 as the project ramps up. The project is a joint effort between Santos and Spanish energy company Repsol. It's the Spanish energy company's first-ever project in Alaska.

Alaskan oil production peaked at 2 million bpd in 1998, and output has stayed below 1 million bpd on average since 2003. Pikka, however, is expected to help stimulate production by as much as 13% relative to 2025 levels, federal estimates show.

Conoco Helping to Do More

In its market report for August, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects Alaskan crude oil production to average 50,000 bpd by next year, which would be an 11% increase from this year's average and 19% more than the 2025 average.

Elsewhere, ConocoPhillips achieved first oil at its Nuna development, part of the Kuparuk River Unit, on the North Slope in December 2024, and the company is expecting around 20,000 bpd from 29 well locations.

Proved oil reserves in Alaska amount to more than 3.1 billion barrels, the fourth-largest in the United States. Republican representatives in the state said Alaska marked its comeback following one of the best oil and gas lease sales ever in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. High bids in March totaled $163 million for rights to drill across 1.3 million acres in the reserve.

The lease in the NPR-A was the first since 2019.

U.S. President Donald Trump has singled out Alaska as part of a strategy of energy dominance.

By the Numbers

• 450,000 barrels of oil shipped in inaugural delivery from Pikka
• 80,000 bpd expected by the third quarter

Key Takeaways

• Nuna, Pikka expected to boost Alaskan crude oil production
• Production peaked in the late 1980s

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).