Nigeria's New President Faces Power Challenges as Grid Supply Dips Below 3,000 Megawatts

Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--When newly elected Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari takes office next month, recent events already will have made him aware of a range of problems. These include Boko Haram's terrorism in the northeast, oil pipeline sabotage in Delta State, the pressure on the economy from falling oil prices, and an erratic and inadequate national power supply system.

He also will need to tackle the problems underlying fuel and basic commodity shortages in a country of more than 180 million people, which also is Africa's largest oil producer.

Last week, nine ships with cargoes of petroleum products berthed at Nigerian ports. Two more vessels were waiting to discharge similar cargos. Six more ships laden with rice, crude palm oil and vehicles also were waiting to discharge.

The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) reported that 46 cargo-carrying ships were expected to arrive in the second half of April. The incoming cargos contain fish, bulk sugar, containers, crude palm oil, buck wheat, vehicles, bulk fertilizer and general cargo. More vessels (23) were expected with buck wheat, sugar, general cargo, rice, bulk salt, fish, bulk gypsum, bulk gas, kerosene, steel products and diesel.

While there are promises of new power generation capacity coming online, and officials talk of long-term energy budgets of around $50 billion, the power supply situation on the ground has not changed for the better. While an installed capacity of 4,700 megawatts (MW) is claimed, generation continues to fall below 3,000 MW. The fall has been attributed to the sporadic supply of gas.

In the last month, there has been a major decline of the power supply in parts of Lagos. In the second week of April, grid supply fell to 2,988 MW, after hitting a low of 2,676 MW on one day in the second week of March. The daily power supply has gone below 3,000 MW five times in 2015.

Another problem that looms for the new president is the dilemma of how hard to pursue corruption and "disappearing" funds during the last administration. The last petroleum minister, Diezani K. Alison-Madueke, has been reported as arranging for asylum in another country to escape corruption charges, which she says are trumped up by a cabal of "big oil men" on whose toes she stepped about the very same topic of corruption.

For Buhari's new government to plunge into an anti-corruption witch-hunt head-on would be extremely destabilizing in an already volatile, politicized "power" scene, rather than demonstrating the advantages of successful policy implementation and deliver megawatts to the larger population, despite the "big men."

For related information, see March 26, 2015, article - Studies: Back-Up Power Provides 60% of Nigeria's Supply, and November 20, 2014, article - Gas Supply Failure Stalls Private Investment in Nigerian Power Plants.

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