Chile Copper Production Drops in September, Lower Output from Key Miners

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

Chile's copper production in September reached 385,100 tonnes, a 15% decline compared with the same month in 2025. Accumulated production for the first nine months of 2026 was 8.5% lower than in the same period of 2025. Cochilco forecasts a mine production decline for 2026, with a 3% recovery for next year.

Copper Output at 3.62 Million Tons for First Nine Months

Cochilco, Chile's copper commission, reported that the country produced 385,100 tonnes of copper in September, a 15% decrease compared to the same month in 2025. Cumulative production in the first nine months of 2026 stood at 3.63 million tonnes, an 8.5% decline compared to 3.97 million tonnes recorded in the same period last year.

September's drop was driven by lower output from key companies and mines across Chile. Codelco's copper production, including its share from mines where it holds stakes, fell 14% year on year to 99,300 tonnes in September, according to Cochilco. The biggest production decline came from its Chuquicamata, Radomiro Tomic, and Ministro Hales mines, where combined output dropped by 28% year on year to 44,400 tonnes. The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Mining & Minerals Plant Database continues to follow these mining operations.

Meanwhile, the Escondida mine, the world's biggest copper mine, produced 93,800 tonnes of copper in September, 20.9% less than during the same month last year. In September, a fatal incident temporarily disrupted mining operations at Escondida.

The Spence mine is another driver of Chile's production decline. The mine produced 15,300 tonnes of copper in September, compared to 21,100 tonnes during the same month in 2025. BHP, which owns Spence, said in its quarterly report that the mine was facing challenges in managing ore variability.

Similarly, the Collahuasi mine saw its production decline year on year by 19.2% to 30,700 tonnes of copper in September 2026. Mantos Copper, Zaldivar, and Centinela also recorded yearly drops of 33.6%, 30.9%, and 28%, respectively, in September.

Yearly Outlook

Cochilco forecasts Chile's copper mine production at 4.94 million tonnes in 2026, an 8.4% drop compared 2025. However, Cochilco expects production to grow by 3% in 2027 to 5.08 million tonnes.

Globally, Cochilco expects copper mining production of 23.30 million tonnes in 2026, a 0.6% drop, while refined copper production is expected to increase by 1.1% and reach 27.64 million tonnes. Mining production is expected to recover next year with a 3.4% increase to 24.08 million tonnes, driven by volumes from Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Zambia and Indonesia, according to the commission. On refined copper, Cochilco forecasts output will reach 28.20 million in 2027, a 2% increase.

Finally, Cochilco raised its annual average copper price forecasts to US$6.18 per pound for 2026 and US$5.95 per pound for 2027.

Key Takeaways

• Chile produced 385,100 tonnes of copper in September, a 15% year-on-year drop.
• Codelco produced 99,300 tonnes in September, a 14% decline.
• Cochilco forecasts average copper prices of US$6.18 per pound in 2026 and US$5.95 per pound in 2027.

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