Bolsonaro vs. Lula: What are their Energy, Mining Policies?

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Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Bolsonaro is running a campaign supporting a smaller role for the government and state-owned companies, as well as closer ties with Washington. Lula supports a larger state and state-controlled companies like Petrobras.

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Clashing Views

Flavio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are heading into a runoff presidential election on October 25, after securing 47.03% and 45.16% of the votes, respectively, during the first round on October 4.

The runoff reflects Brazil's continuing political polarization, which has also been a characteristic of other South American countries in recent years.

Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, came first in the first round despite trailing Lula in major pre-election polls. Flavio's campaign, like that of his father, is grounded in right-wing and conservative principles, including a smaller role for the Brazilian state.

Falvio's candidacy received praise from U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration is seeking to expand its ties with Brazil, especially in key sectors such as critical minerals. A government led by Flavio would gravitate closer to Washington and seek to expand business with other Western countries.

Flavio's plan includes the promotion of foreign investments to develop Brazil's vast mineral resources. As part of that, the presidential candidate is pledging to promote credit guarantees for project financing and accelerate the licensing and mining-rights procedures.

More importantly, he believes that the state should only act as a regulator or coordinator of the sector, and not as a commercial actor. For Flavio, the government's role is to call for "a clear and stable regulatory framework, streamlined and technical licensing, attraction of capital and technology, vertical integration driven by market incentives, governance and transparency."

On the energy front, Flavio is supporting the use of fracking for natural gas extraction, as well as the modernization of Brazil's refining infrastructure and an increase in domestic fertilizer production. According to Industrial Info Resources data, Brazil currently has 219 active petroleum refining projects, representing US$6.73 billion of investment.

At the same time, he is backing the development of renewable technologies and a reduction in electricity taxes. Flavio also supports expanding biofuels through implementation of the existing "Fuel for the Future" law, alongside dedicated financing for biogas companies.

Brazil is one of the leading countries for biofuels, given its production of ethanol, as well as its growing investments in biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Industrial Info Resources has mapped an alternative fuel project pipeline of almost 1,700 projects across Brazil, amounting to investments of about US$43 billion.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on these projects in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database, where readers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in a list of project reports.

Lula da Silva

Another victory would give Lula a fourth presidential term since the year 2000. Lula's platform is set to remain nationalistic and to maintain a larger role for the state and its public companies in industrial and energy policies.

In his current term, Lula has consistently criticized policies implemented by his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, who sought to sell assets of public companies, such as Petrobras' refineries, and reduce the role of the state.

Mining will remain a key policy for Lula. In September, the incumbent established the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals, aimed at granting tax incentives between 2030 and 2034, financing guarantees, and government coordination in the sector. As part of his campaign, he pledged to develop a specific policy framework for critical minerals and rare earths, which is aimed at boosting domestic supply chains, technologies, and the transformation of minerals.

Rare earths have become a central topic in Brazil in recent months, given Washington's growing interest in extracting Brazil's rare earths to counter Chinese dominance.

Brazil's mineral resources are vast, containing significant deposits of lithium, graphite, niobium, rare earths, copper and more. Industrial Info Resources is tracking a metals and minerals pipeline of more than 1,050 projects and investments of about US$70 billion; readers can consult a detailed list of project reports.

For rare earths, Industrial Info Resources is tracking 38 projects representing more than US$3 billion of investment; readers can consult a detailed list of project reports.

On the energy front, Lula has backed the expansion of the current energy matrix, developing about 31.2 gigawatts (GW) of new power generation under his Novo Pac program. About 80% of the new installed capacity came from renewable sources.

Brazil has one of the world's cleanest electricity mixes, with renewable sources dominating generation. Meanwhile, Industrial Info Resources is tracking more than 1,550 solar, wind and hydro projects across Brazil, amounting to investments of US$407 billion.

Lula's platform also promotes a bigger role for Petrobras in the energy industry, expanding its presence in refining capacity and a return to fuel distribution. Under Lula's current mandate, Petrobras has set new production records, driven by a long-term plan aimed at deploying new floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facilitiess along pre-salt and post-salt areas.

Key Takeaways

• Brazil's runoff election signals another polarized context.
• Bolsonaro backs private investment, faster mining permitting, and closer ties with Washington.
• Lula supports a larger state role, an expanded Petrobras presence, and continued renewable energy development.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).