Brazil Oil Production Could Reach 4.9 Million BPD, Net Natural Gas Output Nearly Double by 2036

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

Brazil's oil production is forecast to reach nearly 5 million bpd over the next decade, while net natural gas output could grow from 73 million m³/d in 2026 to 135 million m³/d in 2036.

Peak Oil Production Projected for 2028, 2033

Brazil's Energy Research Office and the Ministry of Mines and Energy forecasted the nation's oil output to reach 4.9 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2036, up from the expected production of 4.2 million bpd for 2026.

Peak production of 5 million bpd is projected for 2028 and 2033, while between 2027 and 2036, the amount would swing between 4.5 million and 4.9 million bpd. Compared to 2025 volumes, oil production is expected to increase by roughly 30% by 2036, driven by new output from pre-salt fields, such as Buzios, Tupi, Mero, Sepia, Atapu, Bacalhau, Bacalhau Norte and Raia.

By the year 2036, ultra-deep water fields will account for 81% of the production and deep-water fields will account for 13%, with pre-salt oil production accounting for 73% of Brazil's oil output in 2036. Meanwhile, onshore oil production is expected to increase from almost 100,000 bpd in 2026 to 153,500 bpd by 2036, driven by the addition of resources yet to be discovered, according to EPE.

Natural Gas Volumes

Meanwhile, gross natural gas production is expected to grow from 208 million cubic meters per day (m³/d) in 2026 to 308 million m³/d by 2036, according to EPE. Net production, after deducting reinjection, on-site use, flaring and losses, is projected to rise from 73 million to 135 million m³/d over the same period.

Most of the gas will come from pre-salt production, followed by a progressive increase in extra pre-salt assets, and a smaller portion from post-salt fields.

The Parnaiba, Parana, Solimoes, and Amazonas basins are the most promising areas for shale gas exploration, according to EPE. However, Brazil's unconventional gas resources are still at an early stage of geological assessment.

Current Production and Project Pipelines

Based on the Ministry of Energy and Mines numbers, Brazil produced 4.7 million bpd of oil and 223.98 million m³/d of gross natural gas in September 2026. Of that gas, 66.37 million m³/d was made available to the market.

Petrobras is by far the largest hydrocarbon producer in Brazil; however, Equinor is gaining ground at its Bacalhau floating production, storage and offloading unit (FPSO), which recorded an output of 144,200 bpd in September.

Hydrocarbon production grew in recent years, driven by the deployment of new FPSOs, developments across several fields, and new exploration efforts. According to Industrial Info Resources data, Brazil has 665 active oil and gas production projects, with a total investment value of US$42.34 billion.

Key Takeaways

• Brazil's oil production could reach 5 million bpd in 2028 and 2033, according to EPE.
• Net natural gas production could grow from 73 million m³/d in 2026 to 135 million m³/d by 2036.
• Pre-salt production will remain Brazil's dominant hydrocarbon source.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).