Brazil to Strengthen Energy Security Amid Drought, Solar Power Growth, High Loads

---

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

---

Summary

Brazil's government has outlined 27 actions to strengthen power supply security amid drought risks, rapid distributed solar growth and high load ramps, which are making the country's electricity system harder to operate.

---

Strengthening Power Security, Reliability

The Brazilian government has released its Strategic Electro-Energy Agenda 2026, outlining 27 actions aimed at strengthening energy security and system reliability. This document arrives as Brazil's power sector faces operational challenges caused by unfavorable hydrological conditions, climate change and rapid growth of distributed renewable energy, particularly solar. According to Industrial Info Resources data, there are 976 active solar power projects in Brazil with a total investment value of US$162.3 billion.

In recent years, Brazil has experienced prolonged below-average water inflows, lowering reservoir levels and increasing thermal power use and imports from Argentina and Uruguay.

Hydropower is Brazil's largest energy source, representing 110 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity. That is about 51% of centralized generation capacity, or around 42% when distributed generation is included.

At the same time, the electricity mix is changing quickly. More variable renewables are making system operations more complex, especially during peak demand, sharp load ramps and minimum load.

Distributed generation is a key part of this transition. Brazil's micro- and mini-distributed generation (MMGD) increased from 8.5 GW in 2021 to 43.5 GW in 2025, exceeding the 20.5 GW of solar and 34.6 GW of utility-scale wind capacity in 2025.

According to the report, these combined factors "increase the risks to meeting demand and to the reliability of electricity supply, requiring a series of actions by electricity-sector institutions."

To address these risks, the government plans actions focused on managing peak demand and load ramps, minimum load operations and system security.

The actions include extending rules for flexible thermal offers and merchant thermal availability, evaluating the possible return of daylight savings time in 2026/2027, holding capacity reserve auctions for existing and new plants with supply starts from 2026 to 2031 and assessing natural gas availability for existing and new thermal plants in Brazil's North region.

Electricity Expansion

According to the National Operator of the Electric System (ONS), MMGD is expected to grow to 67.5 GW by 2030 and account for one quarter of Brazil's electricity capacity. Power from the sun and wind are expected to grow to 23.5 GW and 36 GW, respectively, by the end of the decade. Together, solar and utility-scale wind will account for about 20% of the nation's capacity.

Thermal power's share in the system will decline with thermal gas capacity dropping from 17.7 GW in 2026 to 13.4 GW by 2030, according to the ONS. Diesel and gasoline thermal plants will shrink from 1% of capacity in 2026 to 0.4% by 2030.

Over the next five years, Brazil's electricity capacity will rise from 250.6 GW to 270.1 GW.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking nearly 2,300 renewable energy projects in Brazil, with a total investment value of US$537.2 billion.

Key Takeaways

• The Brazilian government seeks to better manage distributed power generation.
• Distributed power has increased from 8.5 GW to 43.5 GW over the past five years.
• The government has outlined 27 actions to increase energy security and availability.

---

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).