Brent Hits $100, U.S. Oil Inventories Rise

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The price of Brent crude oil was up nearly 40% so far in July as fighting ticks up in the Middle East. In the U.S. market, the situation was mixed, with strategic emergency stockpiles dropping against an uptick in supplies.

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U.S. Commercial Stocks Increased Last Week

With war intensifying in the Middle East, and with crude oil prices on the rise, U.S. crude oil and refined products supplies increased last week, though strategic stockpiles continue to evaporate.

U.S. crude oil commercial inventories increased by 2 million barrels during the week ending July 17, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). According to Industrial Info Resources data, there are 17 active capital- and maintenance-related petroleum refinery projects currently under construction in the U.S., with a total investment value of US$2.49 billion. The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Project Database offers a list of the detailed project reports.

Meanwhile, the total amount of refined petroleum products sent to the market, a proxy for demand, was down 1% relative to week-ago levels and 5.7% lower than during the same period in 2025. As such, inventories of those products increased, with gasoline inventories growing by 765,000 barrels. Inventories of distillate, a refined product that includes diesel, increased 1.4 million barrels week-on-week, EIA data show.

In the refining sector, IIR Energy has highlighted a relatively slow period for maintenance. Pennsylvanians are still coping with reduced run-rates at Monroe Energy's refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania. The facility, with a peak processing capacity of 208,000 barrels per day (bpd), was hobbled by a July 16 process leak.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on the Trainer Refinery in its GMI Petroleum Refining Plant and Project databases, where readers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in a plant profile.

Along the refinery-rich Gulf Coast, Delek last week shut a gasoline-making unit at its Big Spring refinery in Texas for two days last week, while Valero is still working on regular maintenance at the West Complex of its Corpus Christi refinery in Texas. Combined, PADD 3 saw an average of 37,000 bpd of crude processing capacity offline for week ending July 17, according to IIR Energy.

With relatively light maintenance on the mainland, most of the impact to refining runs during the week ending July 17 was in PADD 5, with a plant-wide turnaround at Par Pacific's 155,000-bpd Par East refinery in Kapolei, Hawaii.

"PADD 5 outages for week ending July 17 were higher than expected due to extended maintenance at Par East," said Hillary Stevenson, a vice president for Energy Intelligence at IIR Energy.

Emergency Buffers are Increasingly Scarce

Meanwhile, more issues are possible from the fallout of Tropical Storm Bertha. By Thursday, the storm was about 95 nautical miles southwest of New Orleans, with maximum sustained winds of around 40 knots, or around 46 miles per hour.

The storm was expected to fall apart as it approached land. Still, Industrial Info Resources earlier found 30 refineries with a combined processing capacity of 6.75 million bpd that could be impacted by the storm.

Against a backdrop of a relatively mild week in the U.S. refining sector, retail gasoline prices were on the rise as fighting intensified in the Middle East.

From Yemen, the Houthi rebel group, which has backing from Iran, joined the fight with attacks in shipping lanes in the Red Sea. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center reported the Saudi-flagged oil tanker al-Shuqaiq was hit by a projectile off the southern coast of Saudi Arabia. No injuries were reported, though the crew was battling a fire onboard.

The U.S. military said it struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets. "The strikes further degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels," the U.S. military added.

The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, was up more than 5% in Thursday to top $100 per barrel. It's up 35% so far in July.

At home, EIA data show strategic stockpiles are evaporating. Tapped in coordination with the International Energy Agency's response to the war, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drew down by 5.1 million barrels during the week ending July 17, leaving some 311 million barrels left.

Key Takeaways

• There was a mixed bag for U.S. refining sector last week.
• The uptick in war continues to create supply-side pressures.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).