Chile's Cochilco Raises 2026 Copper Price Forecast

---

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

---

Summary

Copper mine production remains constrained by operational disruptions, prompting Cochilco to raise its 2026 copper price forecast to US$5.95 per pound. Cochilco expects a refined copper surplus of 225,000 tonnes this year, just 0.8% of global demand. Chile's output is expected to drop to 5.27 million tonnes in 2026 before increasing by 5.2% in 2027.

---

Increase Price Forecast

Cochilco, Chile's copper commission, has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 to US$5.95 per pound from its May estimate of US$5.55 per pound. The increase reflects solid demand for the red metal and unstable supply marked by operational disruptions at key copper mines.

"This scenario confirms that the international market continues to face volatile supply and persistent supply constraints. Added to this is the increased demand linked to the energy transition, electromobility, and the development of new technologies, including artificial intelligence--areas that will continue to raise global copper requirements," said Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas.

For 2027, Cochilco kept its copper price forecast unchanged at US$5.10 per pound.

Mine Output

In recent weeks, copper prices have reached record highs amid concerns about supply disruptions at major mines. Cochilco highlighted operational setbacks affecting the return of full operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, operational difficulties at the Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and lower production volumes from Codelco, Escondida and Spence in Chile.

In addition to these developments, the DRC recently banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates as part of efforts to increase domestic processing and capture more value from its mineral production. At the same time, Codelco, the Chilean state company, temporarily suspended the development and completion of key projects at the El Teniente mine, wherea n earthquake last year killed six miners. Moreover, severe weather conditions in northern Chile disrupted operations at several mines such as Caserones, Candelaria and Los Pelambres. As a result of such adverse conditions, Antofagasta Minerals reduced its production forecast for the year to 625,000-655,000 tonnes of copper from its previous estimate of 650,000-700,000 tonnes.

Taken together, these developments have added upward pressure on copper prices in recent weeks, with the metal recently approaching US$7 per pound, highlighting the tightness of the sector.

Chile's Prospects

For this year, Cochilco expects Chile to produce 5.27 million tonnes of mined copper, a 2.6% drop compared to 2025.

"For the second half of the year, a partial recovery is expected at El Teniente and other Codelco divisions, along with progress at Rajo Inca, greater stability at Quebrada Blanca, the normalization of operations at Mantoverde, and improved ore conditions and water availability at Collahuasi," the Cochilco report indicates.

However, the commission expects mine production in Chile to increase to 5.55 million tonnes in 2027, 5.2% more than in 2026. For 2027, the commission expects Chile's mine production to increase to 5.55 million tonnes, 5.2% higher than in 2026.

Globally, Cochilco expects a total mine production of 23.5 million tonnes in 2026, a 0.2% increase from 2025, while a further increase of 3.8% to 24.5 million tonnes is forecast for 2027.

In terms of refined copper demand, Cochilco expects global demand to reach 27.8 million tonnes, 1.9% more than last year. China is expected to drive this growth, with demand increasing 2.7% year on year to 16 million tonnes, equivalent to 57.6% of global consumption. Cochilco forecast a refined copper surplus of 225,000 tonnes this year.

For 2027, refined copper demand is expected to increase by 2.1%, reaching 28.45 million tonnes.

Key Takeaways

• Cochilco increased its copper price forecast for 2026 from US$5.55 to US$5.95 per pound.
• The commission expects Chile's copper output to reach 5.27 million tonnes in 2026, a 2.6% year-on-year drop.
• Cochilco expects the refined copper market to record a surplus of just 225,000 tonnes in 2026, equivalent to 0.8% of global demand.

---

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).