FERC-NERC: Winter Grid Gains, but Persistent Risks Remain

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

U.S. power and gas systems weathered prolonged Arctic cold, but regulators say vulnerabilities remain. Industrial Info Resources examines how the 2026 Arctic cold tested the U.S. grid.

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Taking the Stress

The U.S. bulk-power system entered the 2025-26 winter season better prepared than it was for previous Arctic outbreaks. Lessons learned and subsequent upgrades helped electric and natural gas systems withstand prolonged stress, without significant disruptions or manual load shedding. However, a recent federal review made clear that improved performance did not eliminate the underlying and ongoing vulnerabilities that can emerge when extreme cold persists for several days.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and NERC Regional Entities released their review on September 10, following an examination of Winter Storms Fern and Gianna.

The agencies credit stronger winter preparation, implementation of cold-weather reliability standards, improved coordination, and advanced generator commitments with helping to maintain reliable operations. Emergency orders issued under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act also increased resource availability during the events.

Section 202(c) gives the U.S. Department of Energy emergency authority to direct electricity generation and transmission, or implement other temporary measures when supply is threatened by unusually high demand or resource shortages. During the winter events, those orders allowed grid operators to access generation that otherwise could have been constrained by operating or environmental limits, adding capacity during the most stressed periods.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, these findings are particularly relevant as U.S. grid operators strive to balance growing electricity demand with an increasingly interconnected mix of generation, transmission and natural gas infrastructure. The 2026 Arctic outbreaks showed that the system has made measurable progress since cold-weather events earlier this decade. However, system reliability still depends on preparation across multiple parts of the energy system.

An Endurance Test for the Grid

Rather than a short-duration demand spike, the cold temperatures became an endurance test. Extended Arctic air placed simultaneous pressure on generating equipment, fuel supplies, demand forecasting, and interregional power transfers across much of the eastern U.S. and throughout Texas.

Despite those conditions, the bulk power system avoided significant electric system disruptions, while natural gas infrastructure also performed comparatively well. Regulators reported only moderate production declines and limited, short-duration force majeure events. This was an improvement from previous winter episodes when natural gas system problems quickly contributed to electric reliability concerns.

This system's performance reflected changes made after winter emergencies over the past decade. Cold-weather reliability standards, stronger situational awareness, advanced commitments of generation, improved preparation across the fuel supply chain gave operators more flexibility before temperatures reached their lowest levels.

The outcome, however, was not without stress. FERC and NERC noted that generator outages during Fern and Gianna remained significant, even as the broader system performed better than during prior Arctic outbreaks. That distinction is important because it shows the grid was more resilient under pressure, not that the pressure itself had disappeared.

Reliability Required the Full Operational Toolbox

Operators still relied on multiple energy-emergency declarations and other extraordinary measures during the cold period. NERC said system operators used their "full toolbox" to maintain reliability, while cautioning that prolonged conditions in which both electric and natural gas systems operate near their limits should not become a normal operating model.

Federal emergency authorities also played a role. Section 202(c) orders from the U.S. Department of Energy helped increase resource availability during periods of heightened system stress. Those actions reinforced the value of improved preparation but also highlighted how quickly operating margins can tighten when high demand, equipment outages, and fuel constraints occur at the same time.

Transmission and interregional coordination were equally important. During widespread cold air outbreaks, neighboring power systems often experience high demand simultaneously, reducing the amount of surplus generation available for export. That makes transmission availability and coordination between balancing areas more important when cold air expands across multiple regions.

Gas-Electric Coordination Remains a Vulnerability

The same interconnected risk remains evident in the relationship between the electric and natural gas systems. Natural gas continues to play a major role in winter electricity supply, particularly during periods of elevated heating demand. When temperatures fall sharply, residential and commercial gas use rises at the same time gas-fired generators may be needed to meet increasing power demand.

That competition can quickly become a reliability issue if production declines or is frozen off, or if pipeline constraints emerge, which make it difficult for generators to secure fuel. Although the natural gas system avoided major disruption during Fern and Gianna, FERC and NERC identified additional gas infrastructure and improved gas-electric coordination as continuing priorities.

The 2026 experience therefore offered evidence that better planning can reduce risk without removing the underlying dependence between the two systems. Electric reliability increasingly depends on how well generation, fuel supply, pipeline operations and transmission are coordinated during extreme weather.

Forecasting the Next Extreme Event

Short- and long-term load forecasting also remains part of that challenge. Forecast errors become more consequential during extreme cold events, when relatively small differences between expected and actual demand can alter how much generation operators must commit. Forecasting also becomes more difficult when temperatures fall beyond conditions commonly represented in historical demand patterns, or when cold persists long enough to change consumers' behavior over several days.

The broader message from the FERC-NERC review is that winter reliability has improved, but the margin for error still can narrow quickly. Cold-weather standards and operating procedures appear to be producing better outcomes, while extreme events continue to expose the limits of generation availability, fuel delivery, and demand forecasting.

Winter Storms Fern and Gianna ultimately demonstrated that lessons from previous emergencies have been incorporated into grid operations. Better preparation, coordination and advance planning helped the electric and natural gas systems withstand a prolonged Arctic outbreak without major disruption.

At the same time, the review suggests that winter reliability remains less about eliminating risk than managing it effectively. The system held through the 2026 cold period, but it did so because multiple layers of preparation and operational flexibility were available when conditions became most demanding.

Key Takeaways

• FERC and NERC found the U.S. Bulk-Power System performed well during the 2026 Arctic cold period, with no significant electric or natural gas disruptions.
• Generator outages remained significant and were comparable in magnitude to those experienced during the January 2025 Arctic events.
• Natural gas production experienced only moderate declines, but the review continued to identify gas-electric coordination and infrastructure as reliability concerns.

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