Germany Needs 20 Gigawatts of Fossil-Fuel Power Plants

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Written by Martin Lynch, European News Editor for Industrial Info (Galway, Ireland)--Germany's U-turn on nuclear power will result in the country needing up to 20 gigawatts (GW) of new fossil-fuel powered plants being built by 2020.

The admission came from the country's leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, in a statement to parliament and is twice the amount that her government originally estimated would be needed. Nuclear power typically accounts for 22% of Germany's electricity, but with the closure of its oldest eight plants in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March, that figure has dropped to about 14%. The majority of the new plants are expected to be gas-fired plants.

"If we want to exit nuclear energy and enter renewable energy, for the transition time we need fossil power stations," Mrs. Merkel stated. "Fukushima has changed my attitude to nuclear power."

However, she went on to say that up to 20 GW of new fossil fuel-powered plants--not 10 GW--will be needed to bridge the gap left by its swift exit from nuclear power. There are already about 10 GW of fossil fuel-fired plants in planning or in construction up until 2013. While this need for a higher-than-expected number of gas-fired plants will be some compensation to the German energy companies whose nuclear plants are on the chopping block, it has raised concerns that Germany will miss its carbon emissions goals as part of the European Union's 20/20/20 strategy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has already questioned Germany's sudden exit plan, claiming it threatens the energy security of Europe, as well as its carbon targets. Dumping nuclear will add approximately 25 million metric tons per year to its CO2 emissions, according to Laszlo Varro, the head of the gas, coal and power markets division of the IEA. He estimated that it will cost the country about 50 terawatt-hours (TWh) of low-carbon power annually and that gas-fired power will be needed to fill the breach.

Speaking recently, Varro said: "Gas has to replace more than 100% of the lost nuclear power...because it also has to drive out coal to satisfy the carbon constraint. An extra 90 TWh hours of gas-fired power would be needed, replacing 40 TWh hours of power from coal plants to offset the entire 25 million tons of CO2."

The seven oldest nuclear plants, which were shut for additional safety checks for a three-month period in March, are not expected to reopen. In addition, the Kruemmel nuclear power plant, which has been offline following an accident in 2009, will also remain closed. As for the remaining nine operational nuclear plants, six will be taken offline at the end of 2021, while the three most modern plants will by shut down by the end of 2022 at the latest. For additional information, see May 30, 2011, article -Germany Votes to Dump Nuclear Power.

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