Netherlands to Miss 2030 Emissions Target, Revises Energy Plan

Written by Martin Lynch, European News Editor for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

The Netherlands will miss its 2030 targets for power emissions as the transition to cleaner forms of energy runs into numerous obstacles.

New Report

According to the government's research body, Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the Netherlands only has a 5% chance of reaching its 13 million tonnes of CO2 emissions target in 2030, compared to an estimated 16.7 million tonnes this year. In its Climate and Energy Outlook of 2026 It said that the projected emission reductions for 2030 have been stagnating for three years now, "as political deadlocks have slowed down the energy transition." Offshore wind is expected to play a key role in the country's future energy mix, but there have been setbacks. According to Industrial Info Resources data, there are 15 offshore wind projects in the country worth more than US$40 billion in investment.

State of Play

"The Netherlands has a large gap to bridge to approach the European Union (EU) ambition of 90% fewer European greenhouse gas emissions in 2040 compared to 1990," PBL stated. "As of January 1, 2026, with current implemented policy ('the baseline projection'), we are heading towards a 57-68% emission reduction in 2040; if we also include calculable plans ('additional policy'), this figure reaches 61-72%. Accordingly, the Netherlands is not on track to reach the legal goal of climate neutrality in 2050."

Offshore Wind is Key

The coalition government has heavily promoted offshore wind and CO2 capture and storage. However, offshore wind ambitions in the Netherlands, Germany and U.K.., have taken a hit in the past year as all three countries had failed auctions for future offshore projects. The Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) confirmed that there were zero bids for the 1 GW Nederwiek I-A site in the North Sea late last year, blaming a lack of government funding and a decision to cut the auction site from 2 GW in size to 1 GW. For additional information, see December 02, 2025, article - Europe's Offshore Wind Auctions Come Under Fire.

Key Infrastructure Needed

PBL noted that emissions in the electricity sector were "somewhat higher" because of increased use of gas-fired power stations and added that "further delays in building infrastructure are becoming a serious risk for the energy transition. The demand for transport capacity on the electricity grid is increasing faster than network operators can handle. Constructing energy infrastructure is critical in shaping the transition. Sufficient capacity on the electricity grid, further roll-out of district heating networks, infrastructure for CO2 capture and storage, and the construction of a hydrogen network are all needed for the energy transition. However, the construction and expansion of such infrastructure has been delayed, including on account of a shortage of technical personnel, lengthy licensing procedures, and scarcity in both materials and space."

New National Energy Plan

The Dutch government recently revealed a new National Energy System Plan, which outlines rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity and electrification but avoids  binding deadlines for an end to using and producing fossil fuels. While coal use will be banned from 2030, gas is seen as essential for the transition. The plan sets out a sharp expansion of renewable energy capacity. Total renewable capacity is expected to more than triple from 38 GW today to 140 GW in 2040. Offshore wind capacity is estimated  to increase from 4.8 GW to 36.5 GW in 2040, while onshore wind capacity is expected to double. Solar PV is expected to triple to 75-95 GW and will be paired with a strong investment into battery storage with a target of 28 GW of battery power capacity and 110 GWh of battery energy storage capacity by 2040. Industrial Info Resources is tracking 130 battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in the country worth US$4.8 billion. 

Key Takeaways

• The Netherlands will miss its 2030 targets for power emissions.
• Transitioning to cleaner energy has been hampered by political deadlocks and slow rollout of essential infrastructure projects.
• The government released a new National Energy System Plan that targets a renewable capacity jump from 38 GW today to 140 GW in 2040.

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