Survey: Canadian Energy Executives Expecting Future Growth

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Energy sector representatives said they're appreciative of some of the developments since Prime Minister Mark Carney assumed office. Energy is a central component of his trade diversification strategy.

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Activity Should Expand Next Year, Executives Said

The vast major of executives from the Canadian energy sector expect to see a boost in activity next year, even if crude oil prices decline, survey results show.

North American firm ATB Capital Markets surveyed executives from more than 90 energy companies, counting upstream companies and institutional investors, over a period from Sept. 14 to Sept. 28.

"The vast majority of both exploration and production (E&P) companies (84%) and energy services (81%) executives reported improved outlooks over the past three months, while 88% of E&P respondents characterized their outlook as improving over the next six months, and 81% of energy services respondents expect activity levels to increase over the next six months," results showed.

Industrial Info Resources has been following what's been a decidedly busy period for energy in Canada since Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former central bank governor, assumed office in 2025. That year saw LNG Canada, a facility located in Kitimat, British Columbia, become the first facility of its kind to deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Pacific Coast of North America.

Data from Industrial Info show LNG Canada has a peak design capacity of 14 million metric tons per annum (MTPA). More recently, developers announced that a second phase would include two additional liquefaction units, or trains, that will double the plant's production capacity. It would also include additional storage and a loading berth at the port of Kitimat.

Prime Minister Gets Snaps for Energy Support

Carney, for his part, has pursed policies that would diversify trade away from the United States, its largest trading partner, given the steady threats coming from U.S. President Donald Trump. Survey respondents for ATB Capital Markets were "broadly encouraged" by Carney's approach to energy.

Specifically, "a strong majority" were expecting positive developments from LNG Canada, the planned Ksi Lisims floating terminal for LNG exports and the newly-announced Pacific Link crude oil pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia.

Ksi Lisims would support 12 MTPA in LNG exports if built as planned. Readers can learn more about Ksi Lisims from a detailed project report.

In May, developers brokered the first-ever Canadian offtake agreement with a European partner when German energy company SEFE signed up for 1 MPTA from the project.

Moving in tandem with carbon capture and storage, meanwhile, Canadian leaders recently unveiled Pacific Link, a pipeline that would follow the path of the existing Trans Mountain pipeline. Industrial Info data show the new artery has a total investment value of US$950 million and would have a peak throughput capacity of 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Elsewhere, Shell on Friday said it would take on a 30% interest in the Bay du Nord project in the Atlantic waters off the Canadian coast from Norwegian energy firm Equinor. A final investment decision is expected by next year.

Bay du Nord is among the largest offshore investments in Canada at US$12 billion. Industrial Info Resources data find that Norwegian energy company Equinor would use floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) and drill 40 development wells for development. Production could reach a peak capacity of 160,000 bpd and would include as much as 1.2 million barrels in storage.

Looking at the conflict in the Middle East, meanwhile, 79% of the survey respondents said geopolitical tensions would incentivize energy investments in Canada. Even if crude oil prices drop to pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel, the vast majority told ATB Capital Markets they expected the sector to expand next year.

By the Numbers

• 84% of exploration and production firms showed optimism
• 79% of survey respondents said Middle East conflict could encourage Canadian investments

Key Takeaways

• Respondents to an energy survey said Mark Carney is creating tailwinds.
• Growth is expected next year, even if crude oil prices fall to pre-war levels

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).