Typhoon Saudel Threatens Okinawa, Eastern China

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Powerful Typhoon Saudel will pass near Okinawa before turning toward eastern China, threatening industrial, shipping, and transportation operations.

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Typhoon Crosses Western Pacific

Typhoon Saudel is tracking west-northwest across the western Pacific and is forecast to pass just north of Okinawa, before eventually turning southwestward toward eastern China later this week.

As of 6 AM UTC (2 PM China Standard Time) Monday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) placed Saudel about 450 miles east-southeast of Okinawa, with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) and gusts to 130 knots (150 mph). The typhoon was moving west-northwest at 16 knots (18 mph).

According to Industrial Info Resources data, the storm's projected path brings potential impacts to industrial operations, transportation and energy infrastructure across the Ryukyu Islands and eventually eastern China. Uncertainty increases later in the forecast period, particularly regarding the precise track toward the Chinese coast.

Okinawa Faces First Significant Impacts
Saudel is forecast to maintain its current intensity over the next 18 to 24 hours before gradually weakening. JTWC expects the center to pass just north of Okinawa starting Wednesday morning (local), when maximum sustained winds are forecast near 95 knots (110 mph).

The storm has a broad wind field. Tropical storm-force winds currently extend as far as 180 nautical miles from the center, while hurricane-force winds extend up to 80 nautical miles. Significant wave heights near the storm were estimated at 14 meters (46 feet) Monday morning.

Okinawa's location south of the forecast center could keep the island outside Saudel's strongest core, although relatively small changes in track could substantially alter local wind and marine impacts. Shipping and aviation disruptions also are possible across the Ryukyu Islands and adjacent waters.

Eastern China Becomes the Longer-Range Concern
After passing Okinawa, Saudel is expected to slow considerably as the steering pattern changes. The typhoon is forecast to move along westerly track Wednesday, before turning southwestward and accelerating toward eastern China.

Landfall is currently projected Friday near the coast of Zhejiang or northern Fujian province. Saudel is forecast to weaken before reaching China, with sustained winds falling to approximately 60 knots (70 mph) at landfall.

Industrial and energy interests along China's eastern coast could face heavy rainfall, strong winds, coastal impacts and transportation disruptions. These provinces include major ports, manufacturing centers, and extensive power and petrochemical infrastructure.



Favorable Conditions Give Way to Increasing Shear
Presently, Saudel is moving through a favorable tropical environment with sea-surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84-86°F), low vertical wind shear, and favorable upper-level winds.

Satellite imagery indicates that the recent eyewall replacement cycle has likely ended. This has left the typhoon with a more symmetric structure and well-defined eye. However, increasing northwesterly wind shear, dry-air entrainment, and weakening upper-level outflow are expected to negatively impact the storm by Tuesday.

Forecast confidence for both track and intensity is high through the first 72 hours. Longer-range uncertainty is greater, particularly with regard for the Days 4 and 5 track outlook.

Key Takeaways

• Typhoon Saudel is forecast to pass just north of Okinawa Wednesday, bringing potential aviation and shipping disruptions.
• The typhoon is expected to slow after passing Okinawa, turning southwestward toward eastern China.
• Landfall in eastern China is currently forecast for Fri Aug 28; flooding rainfall and strong winds could potentially affect major industrial and energy centers.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).