U.S. Manufacturing Boosts Capex Expectations

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Written by Danny Levin, Deputy Editor for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

A recent outlook survey indicates U.S. manufacturers expect an increase in capital spending over the next 12 months. Industrial Info Resources project data shows U.S. manufacturing industry construction remains robust.

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U.S. Manufacturers Expect More Capex

U.S. manufacturers reported another increase in expected capital expenditures over the next 12 months, based on the latest outlook survey by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

According to Industrial Info Resources data, there is $785 billion worth of capital U.S. Industrial Manufacturing Industry projects under construction, with another $278 billion that could kick off in the fourth quarter.

While not all of those fourth-quarter kickoffs will move forward as planned, IIR data show $117 billion worth of projects kicked off in fourth-quarter 2025.

IIR's North American Industrial Project Spending Index--which tracks both capital and maintenance project activity--for the U.S. Industrial Manufacturing industry also shows strong spending: The monthly index for August (the latest available data) shows project spending was $718.4 billion--up 122.65% from $322.7 billion in August 2025.

The NAM survey ran from August 11 to August 27 and received 220 responses, featuring small (those with 49 or less employees), medium-sized (between 50 and 499 employees) and large manufacturers (500 or more employees).

According to the survey results, which were released September 14, respondents anticipated an increase of 2.6% in capital spending over the next 12 months--an increase from 1.8% and 1.7% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

Nearly 50% of the respondents indicated they expected additional capital spending in the next year (up from 37.1% last quarter), with 39.4% predicting no change and 11.3% forecasting reduced capital expenditures. Large firms forecast the highest level of investment, projecting a 2.9% increase over the next 12 months.

On another positive note, the overall sentiment improved to a four-year high: 78.9% of respondents were positive about their own company's outlook, up 4.7% from the previous quarter.

...But Challenges Remain

The survey respondents reported increased raw material costs as their top business challenge, followed by rising healthcare costs and trade uncertainties (e.g. actual or proposed tariffs, trade negotiations uncertainty).

Respondents anticipate raw material prices and other input costs will rise 5% over the next 12 months, down from 5.8% that was expected in the second quarter. Overall, about 90% expect an increase in raw material costs over the next year, with nearly half anticipating increases exceeding 5%.

The Middle East conflict in particular continues to pose a challenge: "When asked how challenges, such as higher input costs, difficulty sourcing inputs and supply-chain disruptions, arising from the conflict in the Middle East compare to last quarter, nearly one-third (33.2%) said challenges have worsened. At the same time, 60.6% said that challenges were about the same as three months ago, while only 6.2% have seen their situation improve."

In addition, respondents indicated freight rates and fuel costs are hurting supply chains.

Manufacturing Construction Projects

Data centers play the dominant role in manufacturing projects being tracked by Industrial Info Resources. This includes Amazon Web Services' ongoing construction of 14 artificial intelligence (AI) data center buildings in New Carlisle, Indiana, alongside 18 operational buildings. Upon full buildout, the overall footprint would span roughly 6.5 million square feet, require 2.25 gigawatts of grid power, and run strictly on Amazon's proprietary Trainium2 AI chips. The GMI data show the first six buildings out of the new 14 are under construction, with eight subsequent buildings kicking off by the end of 2029.

The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Industrial Manufacturing Plant and Project databases offer more information--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in a plant profile and detailed project reports.

Key Takeaways

• According to a recent survey, U.S. manufacturers expect capital spending will increase 2.6% over the next 12 months.
• Challenges for manufacturers stemming from the Middle East conflict have worsened.
• $785 billion: Total investment value of U.S manufacturing projects under construction.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).