Released December 04, 2025 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land Texas)
Vale expects to become the world's largest iron ore producer, surpassing Rio Tinto (London, England), as it has worked on restoring the production capacity after the Brumadinho in 2019 and the Mariana in 2015 dam disasters.
Reinforcing its operational strength, Vale's copper guidance for next year has been set between 350,000 and 380,000 tons, up from the 340,000 to 370,000 tons of 2025. For 2030, copper is the commodity with the largest increase for the company, with projected figures of 420,000-500,000 tons and roughly 700,000 tons by 2035.
For nickel volumes, it has also raised next year's target by about 12% to 170,000-200,000 tons.
To match this forecast, the company is showing solid operational output through 2025, with production volumes expected to meet the higher end of this year's guidance, with iron ore reaching roughly 335 million tons, copper 370,000 tons, and nickel 175,000 tons.
In terms of capital investments, Vale will increase them from US$5.5 billion in 2025 to a range of US$5.4 billion to US$5.7 billion for next year. Of those, US$1.1 billion will be allocated to growth, and the remaining US$4.5 billion to maintenance investments.
The iron ore segment will account for the majority of funds, at US$4 billion, while Vale Base Metals will take the remaining US$1.6 billion.
For 2027, Vale expects capital investment of approximately US$6 billion, with 65% of the funds focused on iron ore operations.
Key Takeaways
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Summary
Vale expects a 3% increase in iron ore and copper production, and 10% more nickel for next year's guidance. By 2025, production should hit the high end of goals. Capital investments for 2026 are projected at US$5.4 billion to US$5.7 billion, and slightly higher in 2027.Increased Metals Production Across the Board
Brazilian miner Vale (Rio de Janeiro) forecasts iron ore production for 2026 at 335 million-345 million tons, a 3% increase over 2025 targets. By the end of the decade, the company anticipates production volumes will approach 360 million tons.Vale expects to become the world's largest iron ore producer, surpassing Rio Tinto (London, England), as it has worked on restoring the production capacity after the Brumadinho in 2019 and the Mariana in 2015 dam disasters.
Reinforcing its operational strength, Vale's copper guidance for next year has been set between 350,000 and 380,000 tons, up from the 340,000 to 370,000 tons of 2025. For 2030, copper is the commodity with the largest increase for the company, with projected figures of 420,000-500,000 tons and roughly 700,000 tons by 2035.
For nickel volumes, it has also raised next year's target by about 12% to 170,000-200,000 tons.
To match this forecast, the company is showing solid operational output through 2025, with production volumes expected to meet the higher end of this year's guidance, with iron ore reaching roughly 335 million tons, copper 370,000 tons, and nickel 175,000 tons.
Investments for Next Year
Vale has adjusted its fixed expenditures for iron ore solutions to US$5.8 billion this year, down from the previously expected US$6 billion. In 2026, the company plans to slightly drop funds to US$5.7 billion.In terms of capital investments, Vale will increase them from US$5.5 billion in 2025 to a range of US$5.4 billion to US$5.7 billion for next year. Of those, US$1.1 billion will be allocated to growth, and the remaining US$4.5 billion to maintenance investments.
The iron ore segment will account for the majority of funds, at US$4 billion, while Vale Base Metals will take the remaining US$1.6 billion.
For 2027, Vale expects capital investment of approximately US$6 billion, with 65% of the funds focused on iron ore operations.
Key Takeaways
- Vale projects 3% more iron ore and copper, and 10% more nickel next year.
- Vale expects to become the world's largest iron ore producer.
- Capital investments for 2026 are projected at US$5.4 billion to US$5.7 billion.
About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).
